NFL Week 10 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 10 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 10: November 7 – 11, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 10.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 10 Byes: Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins

Quarterback

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Ryan’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Saints (7-1) has the game total at 51.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Falcons (1-7) as +13 point road dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 19.25 points and the Saints are currently at 32.25 points. Both teams are coming off their byes.

The Saints’ defense ranks 21st vs. QBs and 19th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed.

Ryan combined for a 61/82, 751, 7:1 passing line with a lost fumble in his two meetings against the Saints last season. Atlanta leads the league in pass attempts with 42.9/gm and Ryan has exceeded 300+ yards passing in every game he’s finished this season. Ryan averages 30 fantasy points per game on the road this season. With a big implied negative-script on deck, Ryan should be throwing a lot.

Kyler Murray (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6500 (13% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.83% of cap). Murray’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.

Murray posted a 17/24, 241, 2:0 aerial line and 5-34-0 on the ground against San Francisco (2nd vs. QBs) last week. Murray’s fantasy points of 23.04 ranked him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bucs (2-6) has the game total at 52 points (highest on the board) with the Cardinals (3-5-1) as +4.5 point road dogs. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Bucs are currently at 28.25 points.

Russell Wilson put up a 29/43, 378, 5:0 passing line and 1-21-0 on the ground against the Bucs last week, good for the QB1 finish.

The Bucs’ defense ranks 31st vs. QBs, 31st vs. TEs, and last vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. The Bucs also rank 31st in both passing yards allowed (293.5/gm) and points allowed (31.5/gm.)

A lot of boxes get checked for Murray in this slam dunk matchup this week.

Running Back

Devin Singletary (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000 (10% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6700 (11.17% of cap). Singletary’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.

Singletary posted a 20-95-1 rush line and 3-45-0 on 4 targets with 41 snaps (66%) against Washington (26th vs. RBs) last week. Singletary’s fantasy points of 23/21.5 ranked him 7th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. His price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Browns (2-6) has the game total at 40 points (lowest on the board) with the Bills (6-2) as +3 point road dogs. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points and the Browns are currently at 21.5 points.

Denver RBs combined for a 14-107-1 rushing line against the Browns last week. The Browns’ defense ranks 23rd against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 31st in rushing yards allowed with 141.3/gm. The Browns’ D-line ranks 26th in adjusted line yards vs. the Bills’ O-line which ranks 3rd.

Singletary got his first start last week and appears to have elevated himself beyond just the passing down back. Over the past two games, in both negative and positive script scenarios, Singletary out-snapped Frank Gore 81 to 38. Singletary makes for a solid value play as a script-proof ascending back in a great matchup.

David Montgomery (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300 (10.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6400 (10.67% of cap). Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.

Montgomery posted a 14-40-2 rush line and 3-36-0 on 4 targets with 33 snaps (73%) at Philadelphia (7th vs. RBs) last week. Montgomery’s fantasy points of 22.6/21.1 ranked him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. His price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Lions (3-4-1) has the game total at 41.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Bears (3-5) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 22 points and the Lions are currently at 19.5 points.

Oakland RBs combined for a 34-141-2 rushing line and 4-77-0 on 7 targets against the Lions last week. The Lions’ defense ranks last against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 27th in rushing yards allowed with 135.8/gm. The Lions’ D-line vs. the Bears’ O-line both rank 29th in adjusted line yards.

HC Nagy may finally have come to the realization that reliance on Montgomery is necessary, as QB Trubisky is a liability for the offense. Especially with an implied positive-script at home, Montgomery should ground and pound the Lions as often as possible, as a high volume, offensive focal point.

Wide Receiver

Russell Gage (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4700 (7.83% of cap). Gage’s upcoming salary ranks him 59th/61st on DK/FD, respectively.

Gage posted a 7-58-0 line on 9 targets (2nd on team) with 47 snaps (59%) against Seattle (20th vs. WRs) in week 8.

The betting line with the Saints (7-1) has the game total at 51.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Falcons (1-7) as +13 point road dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 19.25 points and the Saints are currently at 32.25 points. Both teams are coming off their byes.

Arizona WRs combined for a 12-105-0 receiving line on 22 targets at New Orleans in week 8. New Orleans ranks 19th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed.

With the trade of Mo Sanu to New England, Gage stepped in as the slot WR for the Falcons. His particular matchup against slot CB P.J. Williams gives him the best WR matchup for the Falcons. He’s a cheap play with a positive matchup in a game where his QB should be tossing 40+ attempts this week.

Christian Kirk (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Kirk’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/29th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Kirk posted a 2-8-0 receiving line on 5 targets (team high), with 55 snaps (96%) against San Francisco (5th vs. WRs) last week.

The betting line with the Bucs (2-6) has the game total at 52 points (highest on the board) with the Cardinals (3-5-1) as +4.5 point road dogs. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Bucs are currently at 28.25 points.

Seahawks WRs combined for a 21-293-3 receiving line on 31 targets against Tampa Bay last week.

Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 32nd vs. WRs in fantasy points. Arizona switched to mostly using 11 personnel, with Kirk running the majority of his routes on the perimeter last week. Kirk will be in a good spot this week as Arizona’s most dangerous receiving threat with the nuts draw.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.33% of cap). Gesicki’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

Gesicki posted a 6-95-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 42 snaps (61%) against the Jets (5th vs. TEs) last week. His catches and yards led the team last week. Gesicki’s fantasy points of 15.5/12.5 ranked him 5th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Colts (5-3) has the game total at 44 points with the Dolphins (1-7) as +10 point road dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 17 points and the Colts are currently at 27 points.

Vance McDonald posted a 5-30-1 line on 7 targets with 51 snaps (81%) against the Colts last week. The Colts’ defense ranks 25th against TEs in fantasy points allowed.

WR Preston Williams (ACL) has been placed on IR and RB Mark Walton (suspension), who both played last week, are out for the foreseeable future. Also including the trade of RB Kenyan Drake to Arizona, their absences now frees up a combined 40.1% target share. Gesicki now becomes the de facto #2 receiving option behind WR DeVante Parker. Gesicki should see a volume spike going forward as well as a salary spike following this week.

Vance McDonald (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800 (7.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.33% of cap). McDonald’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Rams (5-3) has the game total at 44 points with the Steelers (4-4) as +3.5 point home dogs. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 20.25 points and the Rams are currently at 23.75 points. The Rams are coming off their bye.

Bengals TEs combined for a 7-78-0 receiving line on 11 targets in week 8. The Rams’ defense ranks 21st against TEs in fantasy points allowed.

McDonald, with the most favorable positional matchup on the team, leads the Steelers in red zone targets, catches, and has scored all of Pittsburgh’s red zone receiving TDs with 3.

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