NFL Week 16 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 16 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 16 : December 19 – 23, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 16.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Dwayne Haskins Jr. (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 8400 (14% of cap). Haskins’ upcoming salary ranks him 28th/20th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Giants (3-11) has the game total at 42 points with Washington (3-11) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Washington’s implied team total is currently at 22.25 points and the Giants are currently at 19.75 points.

Haskins posted a 19/28, 261, 2:0 passing line and 4-26-0 on the ground with a lost fumble against the Eagles (16th vs. QBs) last week, good for a QB9/QB10 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Ryan Fitzpatrick logged a 23/41, 279, 2:0 passing line and 4-33-0 on the ground with a lost fumble at the Giants last week.

The Giants’ defense ranks 25th vs. QBs and 27th over the past four weeks in fantasy points allowed.

Haskins had his best game of the season last week, and has a good opportunity to build on that momentum with a good matchup against a Giants’ defense that is weakest against QBs and WRs. Haskins will face competition from his own backfield, however, as Adrian Peterson should see heavy looks in any non-negative script scenarios. Peterson is also one rushing TD away from passing Walter Payton for third on the all-time rushing TD list. If Washington is at the goal line, Peterson is getting the rock.

Running Back

DeAndre Washington (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000 (8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Washington’s upcoming salary ranks him 37th/27th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Chargers (5-9) has the game total at 45 points with the Raiders (6-8) as +6.5 point “road” dogs. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Chargers are currently at 26 points.

The Chargers’ defense ranks 22nd against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 6th over the past four weeks. The Raiders’ O-line ranks 3rd in adjusted line yards vs. a Chargers’ D-line which ranks 19th.

Vikings’ RBs combined for a 28-113-2 rush line and 6-29-0 on 8 targets at Los Angeles last week.

Josh Jacobs (shoulder) has been ruled out this week. In Jacobs’ lone missed game in week 14, Washington posted a 14-53-1 rush line and 6-43-0 on 7 targets with 40 snaps (63%) against the Titans (21st vs. RBs), good for 21.6 fantasy points (DK). Washington also carried two of the team’s three attempts inside the 10 yard line and received 70% of the RB targets.

A potential negative-script scenario shouldn’t affect Washington’s role, but Jalen Richard looms to take some snaps (29% last week).

Devonta Freeman (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000 (12% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6200 (10.3% of cap). Freeman’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Jaguars (5-9) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Falcons (5-9) as -7 point home favorites. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 26.75 points and the Jaguars are currently at 19.75 points.

Freeman posted a 12-39-0 rush line and 2-16-0 on 3 targets with 53 snaps (79%) at San Francisco (1st vs. RBs) last week. Raiders’ RBs combined for a 31-116-0 rushing line and 9-73-0 on 12 targets against Jacksonville last week.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks 30th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and last over the past four weeks.

Freeman gets a soft matchup in a good spot. The Jaguars are bad defensively all around, but are really bad against the run. The run-funnel path is there for the taking if the Falcons so choose.

Joe Mixon (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6600 (13.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7800 (13% of cap). Mixon’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Dolphins (3-11) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Bengals (1-13) as +1 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Dolphins are currently at 23.75 points.

Mixon posted a 25-136-0 rush line and 3-20-0 on 3 targets with 44 snaps (67%) against New England (2nd vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB10/RB12 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Giants’ RBs combined for a 33-138-3 rushing line and 4-31-0 on 5 targets against Miami last week.

The Dolphins’ defense ranks 26th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 28th over the past four weeks.

Mixon has averaged 27 touches and 171 total yards per game over his past two. Mixon now gets a great matchup and is script-proof as he will get his touches regardless. This is also setting up as a run-friendly game in general if the current weather projections of 15-25 mph winds and 90% chance of rain holds in Miami.

Wide Receiver

Mike Williams (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000 (10% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6500 (10.8% of cap). Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 32nd/18th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Raiders (6-8) has the game total at 45 points with the Chargers (5-9) as -6.5 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Raiders are currently at 19.5 points.

Williams logged a 4-71-1 receiving line on 9 targets with 52 snaps (84%) against the Vikings (24th vs. WRs) last week. Jacksonville WRs combined for a 10-147-2 receiving line on 19 targets at Oakland last week.

The Raiders rank 21st vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 16th over the past four weeks.

Williams has averaged 17 FPs/gm over the past three games with his two scores of the season. Positive regression finally hit for Williams and he should have opportunities to continue this trend against a Raiders’ defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass.

Michael Gallup (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6500 (10.8% of cap). Gallup’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/18th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Cowboys (7-7) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Eagles (7-7) as +2.5 point home dogs. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 22 points and the Cowboys are currently at 24.5 points.

Gallup logged a 1-6-0 receiving line on 3 targets with 59 snaps (84%) against the Rams (14th vs. WRs) last week. Washington WRs combined for a 12-197-2 receiving line on 19 targets against the Eagles last week.

Amari Cooper added a 1-19-0 line on 2 targets last week as the Dallas passing game wasn’t needed against the Rams, who got trucked on the ground, giving up a 45-263-3 rushing line.

The Eagles rank 30th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 26th over the past four weeks.

Gallup is in a nice bounce-back spot against an Eagles’ defense whose weakest link is vs. WRs.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100 (8.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.8% of cap). Goedert’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cowboys (7-7) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Eagles (7-7) as +2.5 point home dogs. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 22 points and the Cowboys are currently at 24.5 points.

Goedert posted a 5-55-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 65 snaps (84%) at Washington (27th vs. TEs) last week. He also put up a 4-69-1 line on 4 targets at Dallas in week 7. Rams TEs combined for a 14-126-0 line on 17 targets at Dallas last week.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 28th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 16th over the past four weeks. The only TE of note the Cowboys have faced over the past month was Tyler Higbee.

Goedert has a full-time role with a solid matchup on a receiver deficient team. He’s 2300 cheaper than the highest priced main-slate TE Zach Ertz, who also makes for a solid play.

Jacob Hollister (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Hollister’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cardinals (4-9-1) has the game total at 50.5 points with the Seahawks (11-3) as -9.5 point home favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 30 points and the Cardinals are currently at 20.5 points.

Hollister posted a 3-23-0 receiving line on 3 targets with 46 snaps (69%) at Carolina (2nd vs. TEs) last week. Cleveland TEs combined for a 4-42-2 receiving line on 6 targets at Arizona last week.

The Cardinals’ defense ranks last against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 25th over the past four weeks. Arizona is also ranked last against QBs in FPs allowed/gm.

Hollister gets his turn against the best gift to TEs. Happy Holidays Hollister!

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