NFL Week 17 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 17 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 17: December 29, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 17.

Week 17 is unusual compared to the previous 16 weeks, as this slate will be more influenced by team motivations, narratives, and less on historical season stats and historical matchups. With the potential of some starters resting on playoff teams with nothing to gain (i.e. Baltimore), and done teams possibly giving the younger players a look, historical matchups become largely irrelevant in these scenarios.

Current team playoff scenarios can be found on this page.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate (Sunday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7400 (12.3% of cap). Trubisky’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Vikings (10-5) has the game total at 36 points with the Bears (7-8) as -3 point road favorites. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Vikings are currently at 16.5 points.

The Vikings are locked into the #6 seed and have nothing to play for. The spread has shifted 10 points from the open, indicating the market is betting that the Vikings will not be playing key starters. This presents an opportunity for Trubisky to take advantage to end their season on a psychologically optimistic note in a weather-free scenario.

Daniel Jones (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400 (12.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 9th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on FD.

The betting line with the Eagles (8-7) has the game total at 45 points with the Giants (4-11) as +4 point home dogs. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Eagles are currently at 24.5 points.

The Eagles’ defense ranks 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and 17th over the past four weeks. Jones posted a 28/42, 352, 5:0 passing line and 3-12-0 on the ground at Washington (23rd vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB1 finish.

The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win or a Cowboys loss. The Giants have a legitimate opportunity to play spoiler this week, as their offense heads into this week much healthier than their Eagles’ counterpart.

Running Back

DeAndre Washington (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6300 (10.5% of cap). Washington’s upcoming salary ranks him 29th/28th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Broncos (6-9) has the game total at 41 points with the Raiders (7-8) as +3.5 point road dogs, kicking off at 4:25 PM EST. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Broncos are currently at 22.5 points.

Washington posted a 23-85-1 rush line and 2-21-0 on 3 targets with 40 snaps (63%) against the Chargers (19th vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB12/RB11 finish on DK/FD, respectively.

The Broncos’ defense ranks 8th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 7th over the past four weeks. The Raiders’ O-line ranks 4th in adjusted line yards vs. a Broncos’ D-line which ranks 15th.

In the two games Josh Jacobs has missed, Washington has averaged 20.1 fantasy points/gm. It would make zero sense for Jacobs (shoulder) to see snaps in a meaningless game, which would make Washington a script-proof, lead-back value again this week.

Damien Williams (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700 (9.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6400 (10.7% of cap). Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 29th/26th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Chargers (5-10) has the game total at 45.5 points with the Chiefs (11-4) as -9 point home favorites, kicking off at 1:00 PM EST. The Chiefs’ implied team total is currently at 27.25 points and the Chargers are currently at 18.25 points.

Williams posted a 16-65-0 rush line and 3-27-0 on 3 targets with 35 snaps (53%) at Chicago (15th vs. RBs) last week.

The Chargers’ defense ranks 19th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 10th over the past four weeks. Raiders’ RBs combined for a 28-96-1 rushing line and 6-39-0 on 7 targets against the Chargers last week.

RB Spencer Ware has been placed on IR so that’s one less RB in the mix (36% snaps last week). Williams should handle RB1 duties, which would be great if HC Reid’s motivations were known. The Chiefs do have potential seeding to play for, but Reid may not care, as he may value rest for starters over who they host next week.

Wide Receiver

Russell Gage (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400 (8.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.8% of cap). Gage’s upcoming salary ranks him 62nd/66th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bucs (7-8) has the game total at 48 points (highest on the board) with the Falcons (6-9) in a pick ’em on the road. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Bucs are currently at 24 points.

Gage logged a 5-49-0 receiving line on 6 targets and 2-7-0 on the ground with 38 snaps (51%) against the Jaguars (13th vs. WRs) last week. Houston WRs combined for a 14-135-0 receiving line on 22 targets at Tampa Bay last week.

The Bucs rank last vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 24th over the past four weeks.

Gage has averaged 7 targets and 5 catches over the past five games. He put up an 8-76-0 line on 10 targets against the Bucs in week 12. The matchup for Falcons’ WRs is good as well as this price.

Justin Watson (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Watson’s upcoming salary ranks him 43rd/30th on DK/FD, respectively.

Watson logged a 5-43-1 receiving line on 10 targets with 70 snaps (96%) against the Texans (20th vs. WRs) last week.

The Falcons rank 17th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 1st over the past four weeks.

Jacksonville WRs pathetically combined for a 7-102-1 receiving line on 18 targets at Atlanta last week.

WR Chris Godwin has been ruled out this week and Watson should again see a full-time snap count.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6400 (10.7% of cap). Goedert’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Giants (4-11) has the game total at 4 points with the Eagles (8-7) as -4 point road favorites. TThe Giants’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Eagles are currently at 24.5 points.

Goedert posted a 9-91-1 receiving line on 12 targets with 65 snaps (90%) against the Cowboys (30th vs. TEs) last week.

The Giants’ defense ranks 13th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 31st over the past four weeks.

TE Zach Ertz (ribs/back) is questionable and obviously less than 100%, but whether Ertz plays or not, Goedert will play a major role in the offense, in a game the Eagles should be playing to win.

UPDATE:
Ertz has been ruled out.