NFL Week 2 DFS Value Player Picks
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NFL Week 2: September 17 – 21, 2020

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 2.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.


Quarterback

Kyler Murray (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 8000 (13.33% of cap). Murray’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK. Murray’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with Washington has the game total at 47.5 points with the Cardinals as -6.5 point home favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and Washington is currently at 20.5 points.

Murray posted a line of 26/40, 230, 1:1, and 13-91-1 on the ground at San Francisco last week. Murray’s fantasy points of 27.3/27.3 ranked him 6th/5th on DK/FD, respectively. Murray’s 91 rushing yards led all QBs last week.

Carson Wentz recorded a 24/42, 270, 2:2 line with a lost fumble at Washington last week.

The dual-threat QB gets a better matchup this week than last, after gassing the San Francisco defense for the upset win.

Josh Allen (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700 (13.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 8200 (13.67% of cap). Allen’s upcoming salary ranks him 5th/4th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Allen’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Dolphins has the game total at 41 points with the Bills as -5.5 point road favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Dolphins are currently at 17.75 points.

Allen posted a passing line of 33/46, 312, 2:0, and 14-57-1 with 2 fumbles lost on the ground against the Jets last week. Allen’s fantasy points of 33.18/28.18 ranked him 3rd/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.

Cam Newton recorded a 15/19, 155, 0:0 passing line, and 15-75-2 on the ground against the Dolphins last week, good for 25.7 fantasy points on both DK and FD.

Allen’s career high passing yardage from last week is unlikely to be duplicated, as the Dolphins’ CBs are much better than what the Jets offered, but that rush ceiling potential could very well hit hard.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.67% of cap). Taylor’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on FD.

The betting line with the Vikings has the game total at 48.5 points with the Colts as -3 point home favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Vikings are currently at 22.75 points.

The rookie posted a 9-22-0 line and 6-67-0 on 6 targets with 26 of 73 snaps (35.6%) at Jacksonville last week. Taylor’s fantasy points of 14.9/11.9 ranked him 16th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The Packers’ RBs combined for a 26-125-1 rushing line and 9-37-0 on 11 targets at Minnesota last week.

Salaries came out before Marlon Mack’s (Achilles) injury had been confirmed. Mack’s line before his injury stood at 4-26-0 and 3-30-0 on 3 targets. Taylor is expected to assume the majority of Mack’s projected usage. Philip Rivers’ passing line to his RBs went for 17/17, 142-1-0 last week.

The flip-side of this coin however, is that Taylor projects to be a popular play.

Ronald Jones II (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.83% of cap). Jacobs’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/20th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Panthers has the game total at 48.5 points with the Bucs as -9.5 point home favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 28.5 points and the Panthers are currently at 19 points. The Bucs are favored by the widest spread on the board.

Jones posted a 17-66-0 rushing line and 2-16-0 on 3 targets with 33 of 70 snaps (47.1%) at New Orleans last week.

The Raiders’ RBs combined for a 29-122-3 rushing line and 8-84-0 on 10 targets at Carolina last week.

Jones should command the backfield usage, at least in the short-term, as he out-touched the other RBs 19 to 7. Jones was also the only Buc RB with red zone carries with 3.

The matchup doesn’t get any better for Jones this week, and hopefully Brady doesn’t steal his goal line opportunities in the future.

Benny Snell Jr. (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.67% of cap). Snell’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/58th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on FD.

The betting line with the Broncos has the game total at 41.5 points with the Steelers as -7 point home favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Broncos are currently at 17.25 points.

Snell posted a 19-113-0 line and zero catches on 1 target with 29 of 64 snaps (45.3%) at the Giants last week. Snell’s price per point efficiency ranked him 15th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.

Derrick Henry posted a 31-116-0 rushing line and 3-15-0 on 3 targets at Denver last week.

Snell would make for an injury-replacement play if James Conner (ankle) were to miss this week. However, the Steelers right-side of the O-line are now looking at 2nd/3rd string backups needing to step in as RT Zach Banner (ACL) and the top two RGs are out.

UPDATE:
Conner put in two consecutive full practices and is no longer listed on the injury report.

Wide Receiver

Mike Williams (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 60th/33rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Chiefs has the game total at 47.5 points with the Chargers as +8.5 point home dogs. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Chiefs are currently at 28 points.

Williams posted a 4-69-0 line on a team high 9 targets with 58 of 74 snaps (78.4%) at Cincinnati last week.

The Texans’ WRs combined for a 13-163-0 line on 22 targets at Kansas City last week.

Williams logged a 16.1 avg. targeted air yards and 43.23% of the team’s targeted air yards, both team highs.

This game has the likely potential of getting out of hand for the Chargers. Williams may be the one to benefit most for the Chargers when they need to take their one-dimensional air shots in comeback/garbage-time mode.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.67% of cap). Johnson’s upcoming salary ranks him 52nd/33rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Broncos has the game total at 41.5 points with the Steelers as -7 point home favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Broncos are currently at 17.25 points.

Johnson posted a 6-57-0 line on a team high 10 targets with 55 of 64 snaps (85.9%) at the Giants last week. Juju Smith-Schuster also played an 85.9% snap rate. Johnson got 29.24% of the targeted air yards compared to Juju’s 16.96%.

Titans WRs combined for an 18-187-0 line on 25 targets at Denver last week.

If Johnson can bring down one of those long ones, his cheap cost could make for a nice value this week.

T.Y. Hilton (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6300 (10.5% of cap). Hilton’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/25th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Vikings has the game total at 48.5 points with the Colts as -3 point home favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Vikings are currently at 22.75 points.

Hilton posted a 4-53-0 line on a team high (tied) 9 targets with 59 snaps (79.7%) at Jacksonville last week.

The Packers’ WRs combined for an absurd 22-315-4 line on 27 targets at Minnesota last week.

Hilton logged a 12.4 avg. targeted air yards and 39.9% of the team’s targeted air yards, both team highs, but not by much (Parris Campbell).

The Vikings’ revamped secondary may be a nice potential target for WRs. Hilton is most dangerous on his home fast-track, and this could be a potential blow-up spot for him.

UPDATE:
TE Jack Doyle (ankle) has not yet been ruled out but is at risk for missing multiple weeks.

Tight End

Logan Thomas (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4700 (7.83% of cap). Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 21st/24th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cardinals has the game total at 47.5 points with Washington as +6.5 point road dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Cardinals are currently at 27 points.

Thomas posted a 4-37-1 line on a team high 8 targets with 52 snaps (74.3%) against the Eagles last week. Thomas’ fantasy points of 13.7/11.7 ranked him 7th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Thomas’ price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/3rd on DK/FD, respectively. Thomas’ 31.7% air yards ranked 2nd for all TEs and led the team last week.

The 49ers’ TEs combined for a 6-56-0 line on 7 targets against Arizona last week.

The Cardinals’ defense was the worst unit against TEs last season. The game-script should provide ample opportunity for Thomas to get busy this week.

Chris Herndon (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Herndon’s upcoming salary ranks him 24th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the 49ers has the game total at 42.5 points with the Jets as +7 point home dogs. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 17.75 points and the 49ers are currently at 24.75 points.

Herndon posted a 6-37-0 line on 7 targets with 40 snaps (71.4%) at Buffalo last week. Herndon’s 17.3% air yards & ranked 2nd on the team. Herndon’s targets, catches, and yards also ranked 2nd on the team, behind WR Jamison Crowder.

The Cardinals TEs (2) combined for a 2-21-0 line on 4 targets at San Francisco last week. This isn’t too particularly relevant as the Cardinals do not really utilize TEs as receivers in their game plans.

The matchup isn’t great as the 49ers’ defense ranked 6th against TEs last season, however, the volume should be there in this positive game-script for Herndon. Also, RB Le’Veon Bell (hamstring) has been placed on IR. Sam Darnold’s target concentration should center around Crowder and Herndon.

UPDATE:
Crowder (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 2.