NFL Week 17 DFS Value Player Picks
Select Page

NFL Week 17: January 3, 2021

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 17.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.


Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300 (12.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.8% of cap). Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Lions (5-10) has the game total at 54.5 points, with the Vikings (6-9) as -6.5 point road favorites. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 30.5 points and the Lions are currently at 24 points.

Cousins posted a 27/41, 291, 3:0 passing line at New Orleans (4th vs. QBs) last week.

Tampa Bay QB’s combined for a 31/42, 477, 6:0 passing line at Detroit last week.

The Lions’ defense ranks last against QBs in fantasy points allowed, and last over the past four weeks. The Lions’ defense also ranks last in DVOA vs. the pass.

The Vikings’ offense ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Lions’ DST which ranks 28th.

RB Dalvin Cook (personal) is out this week. The Vikings could still go run-heavy with RBs Alexander Mattison (concussion) likely to go, with Mike Boone, and Ameer Abdullah in some sort of RBBC, but the matchup for the passing game is there for the taking.

Running Back

Malcolm Brown (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300 (8.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Brown’s upcoming salary ranks him 58th/41st on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Rams (9-6) has the game total at 40.5 points with the Cardinals (8-7) as -1.5 point road favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Rams are currently at 19.5 points. Both teams will be motivated to win. A Rams win gives them a wild card spot, or a Cardinals win AND a Packers win, locks the Cardinals into a wild card spot.

The 49ers’ RBs combined for a 26-193-0 rushing line (7.4 avg.), and 7-59-3 on 10 targets against the Cardinals last week.

The Cardinals rank 17th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 27th over the past four weeks. The Rams’ offense ranks 6th in adjusted line yards vs. the Cardinals’ defense which ranks 20th.

RB Darrell Henderson (ankle) has been placed on IR. RB Cam Akers is afflicted with his own high-ankle sprain, and he’s questionable. Even if he were a go, the lion’s share of volume could still go to Brown.

QB Jared Goff (thumb) is out. With QB John Wolford starting, who does have a running background, play calling could gear towards an RPO approach. This would further enhance Brown’s volume opportunity. The Rams will also be without their leader in targets, catches, and receiving yards, WR Cooper Kupp (COVID) this week. The Rams should pound the rock as long as they can.

Melvin Gordon III (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6800 (11.3% of cap). Gordon’s upcoming salary ranks him 29th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Raiders (7-8) has the game total at 51 points with the Broncos (5-10) as +2.5 point home dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Raiders are currently at 26.75 points.

Gordon logged a 16-79-0 rushing line with a 66% snap-share at the Chargers last week.

The Dolphins’ RBs combined for a 20-89-0 rushing line, and 6-83-2 on 6 targets at Las Vegas last week.

The Raiders rank 30th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 29th over the past four weeks. The Broncos’ offense ranks 28th in adjusted line yards vs. the Raiders’ defense which ranks 21st.

With RB Phillip Lindsay (hip) placed on IR, Gordon should see the the majority of the Broncos’ RB volume. Gordon out-touched Royce Freeman 16 to 4 last week. The risk with Gordon is that neither team has anything to play for, which doesn’t guarantee his role this week.

Wide Receiver

Curtis Samuel (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300 (10.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Samuel’s upcoming salary ranks him 36th/33rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Saints (11-4) has the game total at 47.5 points, with the Panthers (5-10) as +6.5 point home dogs. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Saints are currently at 27 points. The Saints can possibly finish with the #1 through #3 seed, but their motivation in this game is unknown.

Samuel posted a 5-106-0 receiving line on 5 targets and 7-52-0 on the ground, with 38 snaps (56%) at Washington (5th vs. WRs) last week. Samuel’s receiving and rushing yards led the team last week.

The Vikings’ WRs combined for a 15-195-1 receiving line on 20 targets at New Orleans last week.

The Saints’ defense ranks 12th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 22nd over the past four weeks.

Both RBs, Christian McCaffrey (quad) and Mike Davis (ankle) have been ruled out. Excluding QB Teddy Bridgewater, Samuel ranks 3rd on the team in carries, rush yards, and rushing TDs. It is possible that Samuel could see double-digit carries in a RBBC, as well as carry his WR3 role.

Michael Gallup (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000 (10% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6200 (10.3% of cap). Gallup’s upcoming salary ranks him 43rd/31st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Giants (5-10) has the game total at 45 points with the Cowboys (6-9) as -1.5 point road favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Giants are currently at 21.75 points. Both teams are technically still alive, so motivation for both teams should be there.

Gallup posted a 6-121-2 receiving line on 8 targets with 58 snaps (63%) against the Eagles (27th vs. WRs) last week, good for the WR4 finish. Gallup’s receiving line led the team across the board last week.

The Ravens’ WRs combined for a 9-70-2 receiving line on 10 targets against the Giants last week.

The Giants’ defense ranks 11th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 15th over the past four weeks.

Gallup leads the team in targets the past four weeks along with four scores during this span. Of the Cowboys’ WRs, Gallup offers the best on-paper value, in this must-win game.

Tight End

Evan Engram (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (7.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5400 (9% of cap). Engram’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Betting line: See Gallup above.

Engram put up a 7-65-0 receiving line on 10 targets and 1-5-0 on the ground with a 50 snaps (78%) at Baltimore (17th vs. TEs) last week.

Eagles TEs combined for a 6-71-0 receiving line on 10 targets against the Jaguars last week.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 11th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 3rd over the past four weeks (vs. PHI, SF, CIN, and SEA).

Engram offers a decent value play for TEs in a must win game. Engram leads all Giants receivers in targets and catches, and ranks 2nd in receiving yards.