NFL Week 17 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 17: December 29, 2019
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our value DFS defense picks for week 17.
Ideally, solid defenses with good matchups on teams with something to play for should be safer plays than teams with nothing to play for. The latter teams could plausibly shift into flag-football mode to avoid injuries, and may lack the usual intensity, except for some individual performance incentive bonuses that may still be in play.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate (Sunday only).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Chicago Bears – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2100 (4.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3900 (6.5% of cap). The Bears’ salary ranks them 26th/15th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Bears (7-8) has the game total at 37 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Vikings (10-5) as -1 point home favorites, kicking off at 1:00 PM EST. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Bears are currently at 18 points.
The Vikings are locked into the #6 seed and thus, have nothing to play for. RB Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is expected to miss this week. RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) is questionable. It wouldn’t be surprising if QB Kirk Cousins, WR Adam Thielen, etc. saw limited snaps, if any this week.
The Bears make for a cheap DK value play if looking to punt the position, as every DST at/below this price face teams with something to play for.
Green Bay Packers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4800 (8% of cap). The Packers’ salary ranks them 14th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Lions (3-11-1) has the game total at 43 points with the Packers (12-3) as -12.5 point road favorites, kicking off at 1:00 PM EST. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 27.75 points and the Lions are currently at 15.25 points.
The Packers’ DST ranks 13th in sacks (40) and 4th (tied) in interceptions (16). They also rank 5th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed and 2nd over the past four weeks. The Lions give up the 12th most sacks (42) and interceptions (14).
The Packers can secure a first-round bye with a win OR a Saints loss. They can get the #1 seed with a win AND a 49ers loss. They will playing to win. As two-score favorites against a long-dead team, the Packers’ DST is in a good spot to tee-off.
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4300 (7.2% of cap). The Chiefs’ salary ranks them 4th/10th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Chargers (5-10) has the game total at 45 points with the Chiefs (11-4) as -9 point home favorites, kicking off at 1:00 PM EST. The Chiefs’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Chargers are currently at 18 points.
The Chargers give up the 4th (tied) most turnovers (29) and interceptions (18). They also allow the 11th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Chiefs’ DST ranks 6th (tied) in interceptions (14), 10th (tied) in sacks (42), and 7th in fantasy points scored.
The Chiefs are currently holding the #3 seed. It is possible for the Chiefs to fall to the #4 seed with a loss AND a Texans win, which would have the Chiefs hosting the #5 Bills (who have nothing to play for this week) in a less-preferable scenario, as opposed to the #6 seed (potentially the Titans, Steelers, or Raiders). The Chiefs should want this win, and as two-score, home favorites their DST gets a solid matchup against a team that just lost to the Raiders.