NFL Week 6 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 6 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 6: October 10 – 14, 2019

We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 6.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made as new info comes to light.

Week 6 Byes: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders

Defense

Minnesota Vikings – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600 (5.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3600 (6% of cap). The Vikings’ salary ranks them 13th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Eagles (3-2) has the game total at 44 points with the Vikings (3-2) as -3 point home favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Vikings are currently at 23.5 points.

At the New York Giants last week, the Vikings’ defense logged 4sacks, 1 pick, a safety, and held the Giants to 10 points, good for 12 fantasy points and a DEF6 finish. Against the Eagles last week, the Jets’ defense tallied 1 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 19 offensive points.

The Vikings rank 8th (tied) in QB hits with 33, along with 15 sacks (tied for 9th). The Vikings rank 8th, 5th, and 16th vs. QBs, RBs, and WRs, respectively, in fantasy points allowed. The Vikings’ defense ranks 4th in DVOA vs. an Eagles’ offense ranking 6th.

The Vikings provide a cheaper value option this week that should be a tough matchup for Philly’s offense.

San Francisco 49ers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3500 (5.83% of cap). The 49ers’ salary ranks them 11th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Rams (3-2) has the game total at 50.5 points with the 49ers (4-0) as +3.5 point road dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 23.5 points and the Rams are currently at 27 points.

Against Cleveland last week, the 49ers’ defense logged 4 sacks, 2 picks, 2 fumble recoveries, and held the Browns to 3 points, good for 19 fantasy points and a DEF2 finish. The Seahawks’ defense logged 1 pick, 1 fumble recovery, and allowed 29 points against the Rams last week.

The Rams give up the most turnovers (tied) with 11 and the most interceptions (tied) with 8. The Rams also rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and rank 12th in DVOA offense. The 49ers’ defense ranks 2nd in DVOA defense, in fantasy points scored, and in fantasy points allowed.

This divisional game should be a tough matchup for both sides, with the Niners making a decent play for their price.
Update:
Todd Gurley (quad) is listed as doubtful.

Denver Broncos – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). Denver’s salary ranks them 7th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Titans (2-3) has the game total at 39 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos (1-4) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Titans are currently at 18.25 points.

At the Los Angeles Chargers last week, the Broncos’ defense logged 2 picks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 blocked kick, and held the Chargers to two field goals, good for a DEF6 finish with 12 fantasy points. At Tennessee last week, the Bills’ defense tallied 5 sacks, 1 blocked kick, and held the Titans to 7 points.

The Titans give up the 2nd most sacks with 22 and rank 24th in DVOA offense. The Broncos rank 2nd, 3rd, and 12th against QBs, WRs, and TEs, respectively, in fantasy points allowed. The Broncos’ defense also ranks 16th in DVOA.

Although this game sets up to be a defensive battle, and about as exciting as an episode of Father Brown, the Broncos have the matchup advantage, which further increases if they can establish an early lead.

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