NFL Week 4 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 4 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 4: September 26th – 30th, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 4.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (12 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 4 Byes – New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback

Daniel Jones (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300 (10.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7300 (12.17% of cap). Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 16th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Jones posted a 23/36, 336, 2:0 aerial line and 4-28-2 on the ground with 2 lost fumbles at Tampa Bay last week. Jones’ rushing line led the team.
Jones’ fantasy points of 39.24/34.24 ranked him 2nd/2nd on DK/FD, respectively. Jones’ price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/1st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with Washington (0-3) has the game total at 49.5 points with the Giants (1-2) as -3 point home favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and Washington currently stands at 23.25 points.

Mitchell Trubisky logged a 25/31, 231, 3:1 passing line at Washington last week, good for 20.44 fantasy points.

Washington gives up the 5th most fantasy points to QBs and the most fantasy points to WRs thru 3 weeks. Washington allows the 2nd (tied) most passing TDs with 9.

In Jones’ debut game, he crushed, even without Saquon Barkley for the majority of the game. The NFC offensive player of the week will make his home debut with an easier matchup than he previously faced this week.

Matthew Stafford (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6900 (11.5% of cap). Stafford’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/17th on DK/FD, respectively.

Stafford posted a 18/32, 201, 1:0 line at Philadelphia last week.

The betting line with the Chiefs (3-0) has the game total at 54 points (highest on the board) with the Lions (2-0-1) as +6.5 point home dogs. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 30.25 points.

Lamar Jackson put up a 22/43, 267, 0:0 passing line and 8-46-1 on the ground at Kansas City last week.

Kansas City’s pass defense hasn’t faced much thus far, getting matchups with a tandem of Jacksonville QBs, Derek Carr, and Jackson, who did his damage on the ground. Despite what HC Patricia may want, at some point, Detroit will need to air it out. Stafford should be looking at 40 attempts in his home dome.

Russell Wilson (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7800 (13% of cap). Wilson’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Wilson posted a 32/50, 406, 2:0 passing line and 7-51-2 on the ground against New Orleans last week. Wilson’s fantasy points of 44.34/41.34 ranked him 1st/1ston DK/FD, respectively. Wilson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/2nd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Cardinals (0-2-1) has the game total at 48 points with the Seahawks (2-1) as -5 point road favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 26.5 points and the Cardinals are currently at 21.5 points.

Kyle Allen put up a 19/26, 261, 4:0 passing line with a lost fumble at Arizona last week. His 25.34/24.34 fantasy points ranked him 7th/6th on DK/FD respectively.

Wilson, the current QB3 on the season, gets his turn an Arizona defense allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. One possible caveat on Wilson’s ceiling however, stands the possibility that if the positive-script holds hard, Seattle may go ground-and-pound. Seattle ranks 12th in rush attempts, despite their last two games shooting-out.

Running Back

Chris Thompson (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.83% of cap). Thompson’s upcoming salary ranks him 27th/36th on DK/FD, respectively.

Thompson posted a 7-29-0 rush line and 4-79-0 on 5 targets with 40 snaps (51%) against Chicago (4th vs. RBs) last week. Thompson’s fantasy points of 14.8/12.8 ranked him 19th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Thompson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 12th on both DK/FD.

The betting line with the Giants (1-2) has the game total at 49.5 points with Washington (0-3) as +3 point road dogs. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and Washington currently stands at 23.25 points.

Tampa Bay RBs combined for a 27-128-0 rushing line and 6-71-0 on 6 targets against the Giants last week.

Thompson, currently RB18 in PPR, leads the league in RB targets (tied) with 23 and ranks 2nd in RB receiving yards with 195. Thompson has scored double-digit fantasy points every week this season. Thompson gets a much easier matchup this week against a Giants defense that ranks 19th in DvP against RBs. Thompson also makes for a solid pivot off of what may be a chalky Wayne Gallman play this week.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6300 (22% of cap). McLaurin’s upcoming salary ranks him 43rd/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.

McLaurin posted a 6-70-1 line on 8 targets with 70 snaps (89%) against Chicago last week. McLaurin’s fantasy points of 19/16 ranked him 17th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. McLaurin’s price per point efficiency ranked him 12th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.

Tampa Bay WRs combined for a 12-236-3 line on 15 targets against the Giants last week.

McLaurin, the current PPR WR11, has scored every week thus far, and gets the Giants defense ranked 31st in fantasy points allowed to WRs in an implied negative-script game this week.
Update:
McLaurin (hamstring) did not practice on Friday.

Will Fuller V (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.83% of cap). Fuller’s upcoming salary ranks him 43rd/29th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.

Fuller posted a 5-51-0 line on 7 targets with 58 snaps (97%) at the Los Angeles Chargers last week.

The betting line with the Panthers (1-2) has the game total at 47 points with the Texans (2-1) as -4.5 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 21.25 points.

Arizona WRs combined for a 22-126-1 receiving line on 30 targets last week against Carolina. The Panthers rank 17th against WRs in fantasy points allowed. Nuk Hopkins ranks 8th in the league in air yards with 346. Fuller is only 36 air yards behind Nuk. Fuller also leads the league in avg. targeted air yards at 22.8. It’s coming…

Curtis Samuel (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600 (9.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.67% of cap). Samuel’s upcoming salary ranks him 41st/35th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Samuel posted a 5-53-1 line on 7 targets with 48 snaps (76%) at Arizona last week. Samuel’s 16.3/13.8 fantasy points on DK/FD in Kyle Allen’s first start are season highs.

Chargers WRs combined for a 19-256-2 receiving line on 32 targets against the Texans last week.

The Texans give up the 5th most fantasy points to WRs. Samuel ranks 12th in the league and 1st on the team in air yards, one spot ahead of Will Fuller. Kyle Allen’s completion % is nearly 17% higher than Cam’s on the season, which bodes better for Samuel’s game.

Tight End

Will Dissly (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5400 (9% of cap). Dissly’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Dissly posted a 6-62-1 line on 7 targets with 46 snaps (55%) against New Orleans last week. Dissly’s fantasy points of 18.2/15.2 ranked him 6th/6th on DK/FD for the position. Dissly’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Dissly’s targets and catches ranked him 2nd on the team last week.

The betting line with the Cardinals (0-2-1) has the game total at 48 points with the Seahawks (2-1) as -5 point road favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 26.5 points and the Cardinals are currently at 21.5 points.

Greg Olsen logged a 6-75-2 line on 7 targets against the Cardinals last week, good for a TE3/TE1 finish on DK/FD, respectively.

Dissly leads all TEs with 3 RZ TDs. He gets the nuts draw this week against an Arizona defense ranked last against TEs in fantasy points allowed, by over a double-digit margin above the 2nd worst team DvP. This is the cheap, chalk TE play of the week.

Austin Hooper (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300 (8.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6400 (10.67% of cap). Hooper’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/4th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Hooper posted a 6-66-2 line on 7 targets with 54 snaps (89%) at Indianapolis last week. Hooper’s fantasy points of 24.6/21.6 ranked him 4th/2nd on DK/FD for the position. Hooper’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/2nd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Titans (1-2) has the game total at 45.5 points with the Falcons (1-2) as -4 point home favorites. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Titans are currently at 20.75 points.

The Titans ranks 21st vs. TEs and have given up a TE TD every week thus far against non-stellar competition. Hooper’s 19 catches ties the team lead with Julio Jones, and his targets, yards, and TDs rank 2nd behind Julio.

Delanie Walker (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800 (9.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Walker’s upcoming salary ranks him 5th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Walker posted a 7-64-0 line on 9 targets with 46 snaps (58%) at Jacksonville last week. Walker’s fantasy points of 13.4/9.9 ranked him 10th/10th on DK/FD for the position. Walker’s air yards of 182 ranks him 5th for TEs. Walker’s targets, catches, yards, and TDs all lead the team. He’s their WR1.

Last week, Colts TEs combined for a 9-118-0 receiving line on 10 targets, against an Atlanta defense ranked 19th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. Walker also benefits with a matchup bump with SS Keanu Neal (achilles) out for the year.

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