NFL Week 3: September 24 – 28, 2020
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 3.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 8000 (13.3% of cap). Trubisky’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Falcons has the game total at 47.5 points with the Bears as +3 point road dogs. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 22.25 points and the Falcons is currently at 25.25 points.
Trubisky posted an 18/28, 190, 2:2 passing line, and 4-16-0 on the ground against the Giants last week.
Dak Prescott recorded a 34/47, 450, 1:0 passing line, and 5-18-3 on the ground with a lost fumble against the Falcons last week.
The Falcons’ defense ranks last against QBs in fantasy points allowed through two weeks, albeit having faced Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. The Falcons’ defense also ranks 28th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. The Falcons are giving up the 2nd most passing yards at 372 yards/gm and the 2nd (tied) most passing TDs with 5.
As this game has shootout potential, with Trubisky on the implied comeback side of it, he gets a solid matchup with pathways to exploit it.
Cam Newton (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700 (13.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.8% of cap). Newton’s upcoming salary ranks him 5th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Raiders has the game total at 47.5 points, with the Patriots as -6 point home favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 26.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 20.75 points.
Cam posted a 30/44, 397, 1:1 passing line, and 11-47-2 on the ground at Seattle last week. Cam’s carries/yards/TDs led all rushers on the team.
Drew Brees recorded a 26/38, 312, 1:1 passing line at Las Vegas last week.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 9th against QBs in fantasy points allowed through two weeks after having faced Teddy Bridgewater and Brees.
New England’s O-line ranks 21st in adjusted line yards vs. the Raiders’ D-line which ranks 29th. New England’s O-line also ranks 11th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Raiders’ D-line which ranks last. Cam shouldn’t see much, if any defensive pressure.
New England should be able to call their shots, but which ever way they go, Cam will be their driving force in this soft matchup.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7000 (14% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6700 (11.2% of cap). Taylor’s upcoming salary ranks him 5th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Jets has the game total at 44 points with the Colts as -11 point home favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Jets are currently at 22.75 points. The spread on the Colts is the widest on the board by far.
Taylor posted a 26-101-1 rushing line and 2-9-0 on 2 targets with 49 snaps (67%) against the Vikings last week.
The 49ers’ RBs combined for a 27-184-2 rushing line and 6-49-0 on 7 targets at the Jets last week.
The Jets rank 26th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed after having faced the Bills and 49ers. The Colts’ O-line ranks 14th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jets’ D-line which ranks 2nd.
A negative in this matchup will be the slow combined pace of these teams. The Jets run the 2nd fewest (tied) plays per game at 57.5. Expect the Colts, with this game-script, to run the ball aplenty. This scenario will cap the overall play volume, but it should clearly steer Taylor’s way.
Kenyan Drake (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000 (12% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6500 (10.8% of cap). Drake’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/17th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Lions has the game total at 55 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Cardinals as -5.5 point home favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 30.25 points and the Lions are currently at 24.75 points.
Drake posted a 20-86-0 rushing line and 2-9-0 on 2 targets with 50 snaps (65%) against Washington last week.
The Packers’ RBs combined for a 31-248-2 rushing line and 5-72-1 on 8 targets against the Lions last week.
The Lions rank 29th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed after having faced the Bears and Packers. The Cardinals’ O-line ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards vs. the Lions’ D-line which ranks last.
The positive game-script and soft matchup align nicely for Drake this week.
Wide Receiver
N’Keal Harry (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.8% of cap). Harry’s upcoming salary ranks him 56th/48th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Raiders has the game total at 47.5 points, with the Patriots as -6 point home favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 26.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 20.75 points.
Harry posted an 8-72-0 receiving line on a team high 12 targets with 61 snaps (85%) at Seattle last week.
The Saints’ WRs combined for an 11-152-0 line on 18 targets at Las Vegas last week.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 14th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed after having faced the Panthers and the Saints (without Mike Thomas).
Harry provides for a cheap, starting option with an unimposing matchup.
DeSean Jackson (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5500 (9.2% of cap). Jackson’s upcoming salary ranks him 36th/40th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Bengals has the game total at 46.5 points with the Eagles as -5 point home favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Bengals are currently at 20.75 points.
Jackson posted a 6-64-0 receiving line on 9 targets with 55 snaps (77%) against the Rams last week. Jackson’s catches/yards/targets led the team. Jackson’s team air yards % of 29.35% also led the team.
The Browns’ WRs combined for a 9-159-1 line on 11 targets against the Bengals last week.
The Bengals’ defense ranks 3rd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed after having faced the Chargers and Browns.
WR Jalen Reagor (UCL) will be out for multiple weeks, leaving Jackson as the only legit WR and deep threat available to Carson Wentz. If the Eagles go for a deep kill-shot, Jackson could be a blow-up play.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400 (10.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Lamb’s upcoming salary ranks him 32nd/37th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Seahawks has the game total at 55.5 points (highest on the board) with the Cowboys as +5 point road dogs. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Seahawks are currently at 30.25 points.
Lamb posted a 6-106-0 receiving line on 9 targets with 68 snaps (83%) at Seattle last week. Lamb’s yardage led the team.
New England’s slot WR (Lamb’s position), Julien Edelman, went off for an 8-179-0 line on 11 targets at Seattle last week.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks last vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed after having faced the Falcons and Patriots.
With the Seahawks having to contend with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the perimeter, Lamb operates where Seattle’s coverage is weakest.
Tight End
Drew Sample (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4800 (8% of cap). Sample’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/23rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Eagles has the game total at 46.5 points with the Bengals as +5 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Eagles are currently at 25.75 points.
Sample posted a 7-45-0 line on 9 targets with 54 snaps (59%) at Cleveland last week. The Bengals’ receiving stats across the board reflect a very outlier 61 dropbacks.
The Rams’ TE Tyler Higbee posted a 5-54-3 receiving line on 5 targets at Philadelphia last week.
The Eagles’ defense ranks 28th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed after having faced Washington and the Rams.
The Bengals starting TE C.J. Uzomah went for 4-42-1 on 6 targets before tearing his Achilles last week. Enter Sample, where he now gets a solid matchup at a reasonable cost.
Logan Thomas (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (7.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4900 (8.2% of cap). Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Browns has the game total at 45 points with Washington as +7 point road dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 18.5 points and the Browns are currently at 25.5 points.
Thomas posted a 4-26-0 receiving line on 9 targets with 60 snaps (91%) at Arizona last week. Thomas’ targets ranked him 2nd on the team.
The Bengals’ TEs combined for an 11-87-1 line on 15 targets at Cleveland last week.
The Browns’ defense ranks last vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed after having faced the Ravens and Bengals.
Thomas gets a great matchup and a concentrated share of targets (along with Terry McLaurin).
Mo Alie-Cox (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800 (7.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Mo’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Jets has the game total at 44 points with the Colts as -11 point home favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Jets are currently at 22.75 points.
Mo posted a 5-111-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 49 snaps (67%) against the Vikings last week. Mo’s catches/yards/targets led the team.
The 49ers’ TEs combined for an 8-55-2 receiving line on 9 targets at the Jets last week.
The Jets’ defense ranks 20th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed after having faced the Bills and 49ers.
TE Jack Doyle (groin) who missed last week after no practices, missed Wednesday’s practice, and his participation this week is not looking good. If Doyle is out, Mo would get all the TE reception work to himself with an easy matchup.
UPDATE:
Doyle put in a limited practice on Thursday and is looking like he’ll give it a go this week.
