NFL Week 14: December 10 – 14, 2020
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 14.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700 (13.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7900 (13.2% of cap). Tannehill’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Jaguars (1-11) has the game total at 53 points, with the Titans (8-4) as -7.5 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 30.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 22.75 points.
Tannehill posted a 29/45, 389, 3:1 passing line against the Browns (25th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB4 finish.
Kirk Cousins put up a 28/43, 305, 3:1 passing line and 3-12-0 (1 lost fumble) on the ground against the Jaguars last week.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 29th against QBs in fantasy points allowed, and 26th over the past four weeks.
The Titans’ offense ranks 6th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Jaguars’ DST which ranks 29th.
Tannehill should see clean pockets, and does have favorable matchups at all the offensive skill positions vs. the Jaguars’ DST. Tannehill dropped 26.76 fantasy points on the Jags in Week 2, when the Jags DST sold out to stop Derrick Henry. Should they choose that route again, Tannehill could carve up the Jags proper.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800 (11.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7000 (11.7% of cap). Taylor’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/13th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Raiders (7-5) has the game total at 51.5 points, with the Colts (8-4) as -2.5 point road favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Raiders are currently at 24.5 points.
Taylor posted a 13-91-0 rushing line and 3-44-1 on 3 targets with 33 snaps (48%) at Houston (31st vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB6 finish.
The Jets’ RBs combined for a 31-180-1 rushing line (5.8 avg.) and 2-13-0 on 2 targets against the Raiders last week.
The Raiders’ DST ranks 28th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 21st over the past four weeks. The Colts’ O-line ranks 27th in adjusted line yards vs. the Raiders’ defense which ranks 28th.
Taylor gets a favorable matchup, but he gets about half the team RB snaps and touches. Taylor could get there on efficiency, but the RBBC just seems to be “the way” in Indy.
Myles Gaskin (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600 (11.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). Gaskin’s upcoming salary ranks him 24th/25th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Chiefs (11-1) has the game total at 49 points with the Dolphins (8-4) as +7.5 point home dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 28.25 points.
Gaskin posted a 21-90-0 rushing line and 2-51-0 on 2 targets with 50 snaps (71%) against the Bengals (16th vs. RBs) last week.
The Broncos’ RBs combined for a 29-157-0 rushing line (5.4 avg.), and 1-11-0 on 3 targets against the Chiefs last week.
The Chiefs rank 19th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 11th over the past four weeks. The Dolphins’ offense ranks 25th in adjusted line yards vs. the Chiefs’ defense which ranks 23rd.
Gaskin resumed his workhorse role upon his return last week, but will be reliant on his team not getting blown out early.
UPDATE:
Gaskin has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 with a positive test, and is expected to miss the next two weeks.
Kenyan Drake (ARI) – In a nutshell, Drake is similarly priced, the Giants’ DST ranks 20th vs. RBs over the past four weeks, elevated target share the past three weeks as teams are focusing on Kyler Murray containment, and will garner lower draft %.
Wide Receiver
Curtis Samuel (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.8% of cap). Samuel’s upcoming salary ranks him 30th/34th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Broncos (4-8) has the game total at 47 points with the Panthers (4-8) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Broncos are currently at 21.75 points. The Panthers are coming off their bye.
Samuel posted a 5-72-0 receiving line on 5 targets and 1-5-0 rushing with 42 snaps (65%) against the Vikings (28th vs. WRs) in Week 12.
The Chiefs’ WRs combined for a 13-147-0 receiving line on 21 targets against the Broncos last week.
The Broncos’ defense ranks 9th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 2nd over the past four weeks.
Samuel has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list due to close contact to DJ Moore, who has tested positive, and will not play this week. Moore’s 21.7% target share just got opened up. If Samuel does not test positive, he should be available this weekend.
UPDATE:
Samuel has been activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list and is good to go.
Chad Hansen (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900 (7.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Hansen’s upcoming salary ranks him 55th/63rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Bears (5-7) has the game total at 46 points with the Texans (4-8) as -2.5 point road favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Bears are currently at 21.75 points.
Hansen posted a 5-101-0 receiving line on 7 targets with 47 snaps (95%) against the Colts (12th vs. WRs) last week. Hansen, in his first game, led all Houston WRs in routes run (47).
The Lions’ WRs combined for a 15-277-2 receiving line on 21 targets at Chicago last week.
The Bears’ defense ranks 6th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 30th over the past four weeks.
Hansen delivered an impressive debut for the Texans. Hansen was placed back on the practice squad, which takes him out of play, but were he to be elevated at some point this week, he has shown he can be a serviceable punt option.
UPDATE:
HC Crennel stated that Hansen will be elevated from the practice squad this week.
Tight End
Logan Thomas (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5200 (8.7% of cap). Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the 49ers (5-7) has the game total at 43.5 points with Washington (5-7) as +4.5 point road dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 19 points and the 49ers are currently at 24 points.
Thomas put up a 9-98-1 receiving line on 9 targets with a % snap rate against at Pittsburgh (1st vs. TEs) last week, good for the TE3 finish. Thomas’ receiving line were season highs across the board. Thomas has also scored in consecutive weeks
The Bills’ TEs combined for a 4-27-1 receiving line on 5 targets against the 49ers last week.
The 49ers’ defense ranks 2nd vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 1st over the past four weeks.
Thomas’ matchup isn’t great, but as shown last week against the Steelers, opportunity outweighs matchup.
Cole Kmet (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900 (5.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.7% of cap). Kmet’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/35th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Texans (4-8) has the game total at 46 points with the Bears (5-7) as +2.5 point home dogs. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Texans are currently at 24.25 points.
Kmet put up a 5-37-1 receiving line on 7 targets (tied for team high) with a 54 snaps (78%) against the Lions (6th vs. TEs) last week.
Colts’ TEs combined for a 5-46-0 receiving line on 9 targets at Houston last week.
The Texans’ defense ranks 15th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 9th over the past four weeks.
Having surpassed free agent bust Jimmy Graham on the depth chart, Kmet provides for a viable cheap punt option.
