NFL Week 12 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 12: November 21 – 25, 2019
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 12.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Denver Broncos – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2400 (4.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3800 (6.33% of cap). The Broncos’ salary ranks them 17th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Bills (7-3) has the game total at 37.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos (3-7) as +3.5 point road dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 17 points and the Bills are currently at 20.5 points.
At Minnesota last week, the Broncos’ defense logged 5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and allowed 27 points, good for a DST11 finish. Against Buffalo last week, the Dolphins’ defense managed a return TD and gave up 37 points.
Buffalo’s O-line ranks 19th in adjusted sack rate vs. Denver’s D-line which ranks 12th. Buffalo allows the 16th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Denver’s defense ranks top 3 in fantasy points allowed to QBs and WRs, and ranks top 10 vs. RBs.
The Broncos’ defense gets a much better matchup this week and offers the opportunity to use some salary savings elsewhere.
New Orleans Saints – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3700 (6.17% of cap). The Panthers’ salary ranks them 10th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Panthers (5-5) has the game total at 47 points with the Saints (8-2) as -9.5 point home favorites. The Saints’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Panthers are currently at 18.75 points.
At Tampa Bay last week, the Saints’ defense logged 2 sacks, 4 picks with a TD, and gave up 17 points, good for a DST2 finish. At Carolina last week, the Falcons’ defense recorded 5 sacks, 4 picks, a kick return TD, and allowed a lone field goal score, good for the DST1 finish.
The Panthers give up the 6th (tied) most turnovers with 19, the 6th (tied) most sacks with 34, and the 8th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Panthers’ offense ranks 25th in DVOA vs. a Saints’ defense which ranks 5th. The Saints’ defense also ranks 12th (tied) in sacks (27), and 6th in fantasy points/gm.
QB Kyle Allen has given up 10 turnovers over the past four games. The Saints should have solid opportunities for potential plays as big home favorites.
Atlanta Falcons – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4300 (7.17% of cap). The Falcons’ salary ranks them 5th/10th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting line with Tampa Bay (3-7) has the game total at 51.5 points (highest on the board) with the Falcons (3-7) as -4.5 point home favorites. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 28 points and the Bucs are currently at 23.5 points.
Tampa Bay gives up the most turnovers (25), the 4th (tied) most sacks (36), and the 5th most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Since HC/DC Quinn gave up defensive play calling duties to assistants Raheem Morris and Jeff Ulbrich two weeks ago, Atlanta’s defense has recorded 11 sacks, 4 picks, and held opponents to 6 points/gm, compared to 7 sacks and 2 picks for their first 8 games combined, as well as 30.5 points allowed during this span.
If this turn-around is not a mirage, the Falcons’ defense have a cushy soft matchup they could crush.
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