NFL Week 12 DFS Defense Value Picks Aug 2018
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NFL Week 12: November 23 – 27, 2017

We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 12.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Defense

Currently, nine games this week have spreads of at least -7, with four of those games with spreads into the double-digits. This week will be tough to fade the top tier defenses as a lot of them have great matchups and should mostly be the chalk.

Below the top-third tier, there are some plausible options if defense isn’t a lock priority.

Carolina Panthers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Carolina’s salary ranks them 10th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

The betting lines with the Jets has the game total at 40 points with the Panthers as -4.5 point road favorites. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 17.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 22.25 points. The Jets are coming off their bye.

The Jets rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and are tied for the 4th most sacks allowed with 32. The Panthers are tied for the 4th most sacks with 29. The Panthers also rank in the top five in fantasy points allowed to QBs, RBs, and top ten against WRs.

The Panthers matchup well here and can offer some cap relief if fading the top defenses on DK.

Atlanta Falcons – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Atlanta’s salary ranks them 14th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Bucs has the game total at 48.5 points with the Falcons as -9.5 point home favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Falcons are currently at 29 points.

Atlanta ranks tied for the 4th most sacks with 29. Atlanta also ranks in the top ten in passing yards allowed and in fantasy points allowed to RBs, WRs, and TEs. Atlanta recorded 3 sacks, an interception, a fumble recovery, and a TD at Seattle last week.

Tampa Bay ranks 12th in fantasy points allowed to defenses. If the positive implied game script holds, Atlanta could pin their ears back and place Ryan Fitzpatrick into a predictable, one-dimensional scenario.

Tennessee Titans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Tennessee’s salary ranks them 12th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Colts has the game total at 44 points with the Titans as -3.5 point road favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Colts are currently at 20.25 points. The Colts are coming off their bye.

The Colts rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to defenses and allow a league high sacks with 39. The Colts also rank in the bottom-third in run and pass yardage categories, and points scored.

The Titans are a middling unit in takeaways and bottom-third in sacks and pass yards allowed. Their strength is against the run where they rank top five in rush yards allowed and 8th in fantasy points allowed to RBs.

The Titans are not a special unit defensively by any means, but they get a positive implied game script, and may serve as a possible punt play in this salary range. QB Jacoby Brissett is currently in the concussion protocol, but is projected to play this week.


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