NFL Week 12 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 12: November 26 – 30, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 12.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines and weather projections are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Defense
New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200 (6.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4300 (7.2% of cap). The Giants’ salary ranks them 4th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Bengals (2-7-1) has the game total at 42.5 points (lowest on the board), with the Giants (3-7) as -5.5 point road favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Bengals are currently at 18.5 points. The Giants are coming off their bye.
The Giants’ defense registered 3 sacks, and gave up 17 offensive points against the Eagles in Week 10.
Washington’s defense logged 4 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 9 offensive points to the Bengals last week, good for the DST5 finish.
The Giants’ defense ranks 11th in sacks (25), 5th (tied) in QB hits (71), and 4th in pressure rate (24.4%). The Bengals’ offense ranks 31st in sacks allowed (36), 31st in QB hits allowed (89), and 14th in pressure rate allowed (19.7%).
The Bengals rank 28th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed while the Giants’ defense ranks 11th in fantasy points/gm.
Filling in for QB Joe Burrow (knee) in the 2nd half last week, Ryan Finley logged a 3/10, 30, 0:1 passing line while taking 4 sacks. The Bengals placed RB Joe Mixon on IR, so he’s out for the next three weeks. Backup Brandon Allen will now get the start for the Bengals.
The Bengals will make for a weekly DST target the rest of the season.
Cleveland Browns – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4900 (8.2% of cap). The Browns’ salary ranks them 5th/2nd on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Jaguars (1-9) has the game total at 49 points, with the Browns (7-3) as -6.5 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 27.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 21.25 points.
The Browns’ defense registered 5 sacks, 2 interceptions with one returned for a TD, 1 fumble recovery, 1 safety, and gave up 17 offensive points against Eagles last week, good for the DST1 finish.
The Steelers’ defense logged 2 sacks, 4 interceptions, and allowed 3 offensive points at Jacksonville last week.
The Browns’ defense ranks 8th (tied) in sacks (27), 20th in QB hits (71), and 27th in pressure rate (18%). The Jaguars’ offense ranks 27th in sacks allowed (30), 16th in QB hits allowed (58), and 22nd in pressure rate allowed (19.7%).
The Jaguars rank 24th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed, and give up the 3rd (tied) most interceptions (11).
However, the Browns DST will be without DE Myles Garrett (COVID) again, as well as CB Denzel Ward (calf) this week.
Denver Broncos – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2200 (4.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3800 (6.3% of cap). The Broncos’ salary ranks them 19th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Saints (8-2) has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Broncos (4-6) as +6 point home dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 18.75 points and the Saints are currently at 24.75 points.
The Broncos’ defense logged 6 sacks, 1 interception, and gave up 13 offensive points against the Dolphins last week, good for the DST5 finish.
The Falcons’ defense registered 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 24 offensive points at New Orleans last week.
The Broncos’ defense ranks ranks 7th in sacks (28), 11th in QB hits (63), and 3rd in pressure rate (24.6%). The Saints’ offense ranks 10th in sacks allowed (16), 9th in QB hits allowed (58), and 4th in pressure rate allowed (13.5%). We have an interesting strength vs. strength matchup here.
The Saints rank 3rd in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, while the Broncos’ DST ranks 19th in fantasy points/gm.
Taysom Hill had a successful debut, but he’ll now be making his second start in a tougher matchup than the tissue-soft Falcons he faced last week. If looking to punt a cheap DST to pay up elsewhere, a gamble on the Broncos’ DST may be worth a shot.
