NFL Week 11 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 11: November 19 – 23, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 11.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines and weather projections are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Defense
Cleveland Browns – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.7% of cap). The Browns’ salary ranks them 8th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Eagles (3-5-1) has the game total at 45.5 points, with the Browns (6-3) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 24.5 points and the Eagles are currently at 21 points.
The Browns’ defense registered 2 sacks, and gave up 7 offensive points against the Texans last week.
The Giants’ defense logged 3 sacks, and allowed 17 offensive points against the Eagles last week.
The Browns’ defense ranks 18th in adjusted sack rate vs. an Eagles’ offense which ranks 29th. The Eagles allow the most sacks (35) and the most QB hits (89).
The Eagles rank 28th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed, and give up the 3rd (tied) most turnovers (17).
There’s also currently a projected 50% chance of rain with approximate 14 mph winds at Cleveland for the Brown’s DST to romp around in.
UPDATE:
DE Myles Garrett tested COVID positive and is out. This would kill any upside for the Browns’ DST.
New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4300 (7.2% of cap). The Patriots’ salary ranks them 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Texans (2-7) has the game total at 48 points, with the Patriots (4-5) as -2 point road favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Texans are currently at 23 points.
The Patriots’ defense logged 2 sacks, 1 interception, and gave up 17 offensive points against the Ravens last week.
The Browns’ defense registered 2 sacks, and gave up 7 offensive points against the Texans last week.
The Patriots’ defense ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Texans’ offense which ranks 31st. The Patriots’ defense also ranks 2nd (tied) in interceptions (11).
The Texans rank 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, while the Patriots’ DST ranks 12th in fantasy points/gm.
The Patriots’ DST does maintain slight matchup edges across the board over the Texans, so plausible paths for positive plays do exist.
Washington Football Team – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900 (6.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4100 (6.8% of cap). Washington’s salary ranks them 10th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Bengals (2-6-1) has the game total at 46.5 points, with Washington (2-7) as -1.5 point home favorites. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Bengals are currently at 22.5 points.
Washington’s defense registered 1 sack, and gave up 30 offensive points at Detroit last week.
The Steelers’ defense logged 4 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and gave up 10 offensive points to the Bengals last week.
Washington’s defense ranks 2nd in adjusted sack rate vs. a Bengals’ offense which ranks 27th. Washington’s DST ranks 5th in pressure rate (25.7%).
The Bengals rank 29th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed while Washington’s DST ranks 15th in fantasy points/gm.
The Bengals may be without RB Joe Mixon (foot) again this week.
