NFL Week 10 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 10 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 10: November 8 – 12, 2018

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our value DFS defense picks for week 10.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 10 byes – Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings

Defense

Buffalo Bills – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200, FanDuel (FD) – 3700. The Bills’ salary ranks them 5th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD.

The betting line with the Jets has the game total at 37 points (lowest on the board) with the Bills as +7.5 point road dogs. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 22.25 points and the Bills are currently at 14.75 points.

The Jets give up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing defenses, coughs up the 3rd most turnovers with 20, and gives up the 19th (tied) most sacks with 21. The Jets rank 29th in yards per game with 310.6 and 22nd in points per game with 22. Sam Darnold leads the league with 14 interceptions. Last week, the Dolphins’ defense logged 4 sacks, 4 picks with one returned for a TD, and held the Jets to 6 points, finishing with 25 fantasy points, ranking them 2nd behind Chicago.

The Bills’ defense ranks 13th (tied) in turnovers created with 13 and 14th (tied) in sacks with 22. The Bills logged 1 sack and 1 pick against Chicago last week.

The biggest problem for the Bills’ defense is their historically inept offense, which can leave their defense with short field-position. The Jets’ offense is a bad, turnover-prone unit providing Buffalo with a decent matchup in this week’s ugliest game.

Update:
Sam Darnold (foot) has been ruled out. Josh McCown will step in.

Los Angeles Rams – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500, FanDuel (FD) – 3700. The Jets’ salary ranks them 10th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Seahawks has the game total at 51.5 points (tied for highest on the board) with the Rams as -10 point home favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Rams are currently at 30.75 points.

The Seahawks rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses while the Rams’ defense ranks 2nd in fantasy points/gm. Seattle allows the 9th (tied) most sacks with 25. The Chargers’ defense logged 4 sacks, a pick-six, and held the Seahawks to 17 points in Seattle last week.

The Rams’ defense ranks 10th (tied) in takeaways with 14 and 14th (tied) in sacks with 22. The Rams’ defense managed a fumble recovery but was throttled for 45 points in New Orleans last week.

In their week 5 meeting in Seattle, the Seahawks managed their highest score of the season and the only one over 30 points against the Rams, in a surprisingly close loss. Due to the close, competitive nature of this game, Russell Wilson only had 21 attempts while the Seahawks totaled 32 rush attempts, which is exactly what Brian Schottenheimer wants to do. If the implied negative script holds, the Seahawks should be forced from their M.O., creating more play opportunities for the Rams’ defense.

The Rams return home after suffering their first humbling loss of the season. This should be a good bounce-back spot for them.

New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 4200. The Patriots’ salary ranks them 12th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Titans has the game total at 48 points with the Patriots as -6.5 point road favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Patriots are currently at 27.25 points.

The Titans’ offense gives up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing defenses and the 7th (tied) most sacks with 26. They also rank 30th in yards per game and 29th (tied) in points per game with, 288.3 and 16.8, respectively. The Cowboys’ defense recorded 4 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries against the Titans last week.

The Patriots’ defense ranks 4th in turnovers created and 8th in fantasy points per game. The Patriots’ defense logged 1 sack, a fumble recovery, and held the Packers to 17 points last week. The matchup is solid for the Pats as the Titans should pose little threat.

Indianapolis Colts – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4000. The Colts’ salary ranks them 10th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Jaguars has the game total at 46.5 points with the Colts as -3 point home favorites. The Jags’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Colts are currently at 24.75 points. Both teams are coming off their byes.

The Jags’ offense gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses and the 4th (tied) most turnovers with 18. They also rank 22nd in yards per game and 29th (tied) in points per game with, 352.5 and 16.8, respectively. The Eagles’ defense recorded 4 sacks, a fumble recovery, and held the Jags to 18 points in week 8.

The Colts’ defense ranks 5th (tied) in turnovers created with 16 and 19th (tied) in sacks with 21. They also rank bottom-third in yards and points per game, with 371.4 and 26.6, respectively. With an implied positive script at home, the Colts may be able to force Blake Bortles to shoulder a bigger load of the offense.

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