NFL Week 17 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 17: December 30, 2018
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our value DFS defense picks for week 17.
For defense purposes, Week 17 is more about trying to avoid the landmines. Ideally, good defenses with good matchups on teams with something to play for should be safer plays than teams with nothing to play for. The latter teams could plausibly shift into flag-football mode to avoid injuries, and may lack the usual intensity, except for some individual performance incentive bonuses that may still be in play.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate (Sunday only).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. The Chiefs’ salary ranks them 13th/8th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Raiders (4-11) has the game total at 54 points (highest on the board) with the Chiefs (11-4) as -13.5 point home favorites. The Chiefs’ implied team total is currently at 33.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 20.25 points.
The Raiders rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. The Raiders give up the 5th most sacks with 49 and rank 19th (tied) in giveaways with 20.
The Chiefs’ defense ranks 2nd in sacks with 49 and 4th in QB hits with 103. The Chiefs also rank 7th (tied) in fumble recoveries with 10 and 11th (tied) in takeaways with 23. The Chiefs’ defense averages 5.5 more fantasy points per game at home. The Chiefs’ defense scored 8 fantasy points at Oakland in week 13.
If the projected game flow holds as massive home favorites, the Chiefs defense should have ample opportunity to bring pass rush pressure, a problematic area for the Raiders. The Chiefs can clinch the AFC West and lock up the #1 seed with a win.
New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4100. The Patriots’ salary ranks them 6th/12th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Jets (4-11) has the game total at 45.5 points with the Patriots (10-5) as -13.5 point home favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 29.5 points and the Jets are currently at 16 points.
The Jets ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses and rank 29th in overall DVOA. The Jets toss up the 3rd most interceptions with 19 and the 4th (tied) most turnovers with 27.
The Patriots’ defense ranks 6th (tied) in takeaways with 25. Over their past five games, the Patriots’ defense averaged 8.2 fantasy points. The Patriots’ defense scored 8 fantasy points at New Jersey in week 12, although facing Josh McCown that week.
A Patriots win secures them a first-round bye. As huge home favorites, the Patriots should have opportunities to make plays forcing Sam Darnolds’ hand.
Philadelphia Eagles – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 4000. The Eagles’ salary ranks them 10th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Redskins (7-8) has the game total at 42 points with the Eagles (8-7) as -6.5 point road favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 17.75 points and the Redskins are currently at 24.5 points.
Over their past three games with Josh Johnson under center, Washington allowed an average of 13.67 fantasy points to opposing defenses. During this span, Washington hasn’t scored more than 16 points in any game.
The Eagles are still alive but need help to get into the playoffs, specifically a win and a Vikings loss. As home favorites that ranks 11th (tied) in sacks with 40 and 1st in QB hits with 125 against a 3rd/4th string QB, the Eagles’ defense do have pathways to score.