NFL Week 9 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 9 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 9: October 31 – November 4, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 9.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 9 Byes – Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints

Quarterback

Derek Carr (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7300 (12.17% of cap). Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Carr posted an 18/30, 285, 3:0 aerial line at Houston (28th vs. QBs) last week. Carr’s fantasy points of 23.4/23.4 ranked him 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Carr’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Lions (3-3-1) has the game total at 50.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Raiders (3-4) as -2 point home favorites. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and the Lions are currently at 24.25 points.

Daniel Jones logged a 28/41, 322, 4:0 passing line and 4-13-0 with a lost fumble at Detroit last week, good for the QB1 finish.

The Lions’ defense ranks 27th vs. QBs, 23rd vs. WRs, and 22nd vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. The Lions also rank last in pass yards allowed with 289.7 yards/gm and 26th in offensive points allowed/gm with 25.7.

The Raiders’ offense ranks 4th in yards per play, 6th in pass offense DVOA, and 9th in yards per attempt. The Raiders’ O-line ranks 2nd in adjusted sack rate vs. a Detroit D-line which ranks 26th. Carr should have a clean pocket to implement a successful death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts strategy in a solid matchup with a cheap price.

Jameis Winston (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Winston’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.

Winston posted a 21/43, 301, 2:2 aerial line and 8-53-0 on the ground with 2 lost fumbles at Tennessee (14th vs. QBs) last week. Winston’s fantasy points of 26.34/21.34 ranked him 6th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Seahawks (6-2) has the game total at 51 points (highest on the board) with the Bucs (2-5) as +6 point road dogs. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 28.5 points and the Bucs are currently at 22.5 points.

Matt Schaub put up a 39/52, 460, 1:1 passing line with a lost fumble against the Seahawks last week, where he finished as the QB8/QB9 on DK/FD, respectively.

The Seahawks’ defense ranks 23rd vs. QBs, 14th vs. WRs, and 29th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed.

Winston faces an implied negative-script in a potential shootout scenario with a QB friendly matchup.

Running Back

Mark Walton (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Walton’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/21st on DK/FD, respectively.

Walton posted an 11-35-0 rush line and 3-19-0 on 6 targets, including 1 lost fumble with 52 snaps (87%) at Pittsburgh (8th vs. RBs) last week.

The betting line with the Jets (1-6) has the game total at 41 points with the Dolphins (0-7) as +3 point home dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Jets are currently at 22 points.

Leonard Fournette logged a 19-76-0 rushing line and 7-60-0 on 7 targets against the Jets last week. The Jets’ defense ranks 25th against RBs in fantasy points allowed.

With the trade of Kenyan Drake to Arizona, it is now Walton’s show in Miami regardless of script. Walton does have 6 targets in 2 of the last 3 games. The Jets’ defense are now without DT Leonard Williams (traded to the Giants) and ILB C.J. Mosley (groin).

Wide Receiver

Robby Anderson (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6200 (10.33% of cap). Anderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/19th on DK/FD, respectively.

Anderson posted a 4-43-0 line on 6 targets with 55 snaps (90%) at Jacksonville (15th vs. WRs) last week.

Pittsburgh WRs combined for a 11-208-2 receiving line on 24 targets against Miami last week. Miami ranks 24th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and last in DVOA pass defense.

CB Xavien Howard (knee) has been placed on IR, leaving a bad secondary even worse off. Anderson is always a threat to break one and this opportunity is as good as any to take a shot.

Tyrell Williams (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6300 (10.5% of cap). Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 17th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Williams posted a 3-91-1 receiving line on 6 targets, with 50 snaps (89%) at Houston (31st vs. WRs) last week. Davis’ fantasy points of 18.1/16.6 ranked him 16th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Lions (3-3-1) has the game total at 50.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Raiders (3-4) as -2 point home favorites. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and the Lions are currently at 24.25 points.

Giants WRs combined for a 14-184-2 line on 20 targets at Detroit last week.

Detroit’s defense ranks 23rd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 22nd in DVOA pass defense. Williams has scored a TD in every game he’s played this season. If Derek Carr has time, and he should this week, Williams has a good shot to continue his scoring streak.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.33% of cap). Goedert’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Goedert posted a 3-22-1 line on 5 targets with 55 snaps (75%) at Buffalo (3rd vs. TEs) last week. Henry’s fantasy points of 11.2/9.7 ranked him 11th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bears (3-4) has the game total at 42.5 points with the Eagles (4-4) as -5 point home favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Bears are currently at 18.75 points.

Chargers TEs combined for a 5-57-0 line on 7 targets at Chicago last week. The Bears’ defense ranks 23rd against TEs in fantasy points allowed.

Over the last five weeks, Goedert logged 15-166-3 on 23 targets for 47.6 PPR (TE9) vs. Zach Ertz with 20-234-1 on 33 targets for 47.4 PPR (TE10). Similar production with different price tags. Both make for solid plays, but if this trend holds, Goedert offers the better value.

Jack Doyle (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.33% of cap). Doyle’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Doyle posted a 4-61-0 line on 5 targets with 46 snaps (72%) against the Broncos (12th vs. TEs) last week. Doyle’s catches and yards led the team. Doyle’s fantasy points of 10.1/8.1 ranked him 12th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Steelers (3-4) has the game total at 42.5 points with the Colts (5-2) as -1 point road favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Steelers are currently at 20.75 points.

Miami TEs combined for a 3-10-0 line on 4 targets at Pittsburgh last week. The Steelers’ defense ranks 25th against TEs in fantasy points allowed.

Doyle’s snap-share dwarfed teammate Eric Ebron’s 72% to 34%. Doyle gets a solid matchup at a cheaper price than Ebron as well.

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