NFL Week 8 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 8: October 25 – 29, 2018
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our value DFS defense picks for week 8.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200, FanDuel (FD) – 3400. The Cardinals’ salary ranks them 3rd/19th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the 49ers has the game total at 43 points (2nd lowest on the board) as a pick ‘em in Arizona. Each teams’ implied total is currently at 21.5 points.
Against the 49ers last week, the Rams’ defense logged a whopping 7 sacks, 2 picks, 2 fumble recoveries, a safety, a blocked kick, and held San Francisco to 10 points, finishing with 23 fantasy points. The 49ers give up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses, coughs up a league worst 18 turnovers, and gives up the 2nd most sacks with 27.
The Cardinals’ defense ranks 7th in sacks with 20, 11th in QB hits with 43, and 12th (tied) in takeaways with 12. The Cardinals’ defense also ranks 12th in fantasy points/gm. The Cardinals logged 2 sacks and a pick against Denver last week.
This game has all kinds of ugly written all over it. The Cardinals do get a great matchup with multiple pathways towards pure chaos.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2300, FanDuel (FD) – 3800. The Steelers’ salary ranks them 18th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Browns has the game total at 51 points with the Steelers as -8 point home favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 29.5 points and the Browns are currently at 21.5 points. The Steelers are coming off their bye.
The Browns give up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 8.71 while the Steelers’ defense ranks 8th in fantasy points/gm with 8. The Browns also give up a league worst 31 sacks and the 12th (tied) most turnovers with 10. Against the Browns last week, the Bucs’ injury-riddled defense managed to log 5 sacks and a fumble recovery.
The Steelers’ defense ranks 2nd (tied) in sacks with 22, 2nd in QB hits with 49, and 20th in takeaways with 8. The Steelers’ defense scored 11 fantasy points at Cleveland in their week 1 meeting, albeit Tyrod Taylor was the starter.
After last week’s overtime loss at Tampa Bay, Hue stated that he would get more involved in the offense. If this were to be true, the Steelers’ defense has to be giddy about the potential prospects of this. Get your popcorn ready…
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600, FanDuel (FD) – 3900. The Chiefs’ salary ranks them 10th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Broncos has the game total at 55 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Chiefs as -10 point home favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Chiefs are currently at 32.5 points.
The Broncos’ offense is a middling unit in sacks and turnovers allowed. The Chiefs’ defense is also a middling unit in takeaways but does rank 8th (tied) in sacks with 19. Denver’s defense ranks 11th against defenses in fantasy points allowed. The Cardinals’ defense recorded 2 sacks and a pick against Denver last week. The Chiefs’ defense scored 6 fantasy points at Denver in their week 4 meeting, which is also the only week the Chiefs were held under 30 points.
The advantage for Kansas City boils down to their implied positive game-script at home. Denver’s offensive strength is their run-game, where they rank 8th in rush yards/gm at 125.1 as opposed to 19th in pass yards/gm. This advantage would largely be suppressed were the Chiefs to take a big lead and early.
The Chiefs’ defense, in reality, is certainly not a good one. However, they do benefit from the one-dimensional aerial circumstance their offense provides. Against a much better Bengals’ offense last week, the Chiefs’ defense logged 2 sacks, a pick-six, and held the Bengals to 10 points.
The Chiefs’ defense has averaged 10 more fantasy points per game at home vs. on the road.
Indianapolis Colts – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. The Colts’ salary ranks them 5th on both DK/FD.
The betting line with the Raiders has the game total at 50 points with the Colts as -3 point road favorites. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 23. 5 points and the Colts are currently at 26.5 points.
The Colts’ defense ranks 4th (tied) in sacks with 21 and 3rd (tied) in takeaways with 15. The Colts logged 2 sacks, 3 picks, 2 fumble recoveries, and held the Bills to 3 points last week. The Raiders rank 28th against defenses in fantasy points allowed and also hand over the 10th most (tied) giveaways with 11. In week 6, the Seahawks’ defense recorded 6 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and held Oakland to a field goal, to finish with 17 fantasy points.
The betting line opened as a pick ‘em, but within a few hours of the Amari Cooper trade to Dallas, the Colts line moved to its current -3. Marshawn Lynch (groin) has also been placed on IR. Despite what Gruden says, the Raiders are clearly tanking, and the Colts are in an obvious great spot to help blow this team up.Last updated: October 24, 2018 at 4:44 am