NFL Week 8 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 8: October 28 – November 2, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 8.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines and weather projections are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Defense
Green Bay Packers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900 (5.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4000 (6.7% of cap). The Packers’ salary ranks them 13th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Vikings (1-5) has the game total at 54.5 points, with the Packers (5-1) as -6.5 point home favs. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 30.75 points and the Vikings are currently at 24.25 points. The Vikings are coming off their bye.
The Packers’ defense registered 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 20 offensive points to the Texans last week.
The Falcons’ defense logged 1 sack, 3 interceptions, and allowed 23 points at Minnesota in Week 6.
The Packers’ defense ranks 8th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Vikings’ offense which ranks 28th.
The Vikings rank 24th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed. The Vikings have also tossed up the 2nd (tied) most interceptions (10).
Green Bay weather projects to have wind in the 20-30 mph range. This would be more of an issue for Kirk Cousins than Aaron Rodgers.
Indianapolis Colts – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4800 (8% of cap). The Colts’ salary ranks them 9th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Lions (3-3) has the game total at 50 points with the Colts (4-2) as -3 point road favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 26.5 points and the Lions are currently at 23.5 points. The Colts are coming off their bye.
The Colts’ defense logged 2 sacks, 1 interception, and gave up 27 offensive points to the Bengals in Week 6.
The Falcons registered 2 sacks, and gave up 23 points to the Lions last week.
The Colts’ defense ranks 18th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Lions’ offense which ranks 21st. The Colts’ defense also ranks 1st with 10 interceptions, and also rank 2nd in fantasy points scored/gm.
The Lions rank 14th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses.
The Colts’ DST gets a potentially favorable matchup and provides a reasonable DK value.
Buffalo Bills – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). The Bills’ salary ranks them 7th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Patriots (2-4) has the game total at 43 points (lowest on the board) with the Bills (5-2) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Patriots are currently at 19.75 points.
The Bills’ defense logged 6 sacks, 2 interceptions, and allowed 10 offensive points at the Jets last week.
The 49ers registered 2 sacks, 4 interceptions, and gave up 3 points at New England last week.
The Bills’ defense ranks 12th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Patriots’ offense which ranks 23rd. The Patriots’ offense allows the 7th highest pressure rate (25.8%).
The Patriots rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. The Patriots’ offense have also offers up the most interceptions with 11. Cam Newton gave up 7 turnovers in the past two games alone.
Buffalo weather projects for a 60% chance of rain, with 20-30 mph winds. This is a nice overall setup for the Bills, as they strive towards their first division title since 1995.
New Orleans Saints – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3600 (7.5% of cap). The Saints’ salary ranks them 6th/17th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Bears (5-2) has the game total at 44 points with the Saints (4-2) as -4 point road favorites. The Saints’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Bears are currently at 20 points.
The Saints’ defense logged 1 sack, and gave up 24 points against the Panthers last week.
The Rams’ defense recorded 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, and allowed 4 offensive points against the Bears last week.
The Saints’ defense ranks 7th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Bears’ offense which ranks 11th. The Bears rank 22nd vs. opposing defenses in fantasy points allowed.
Chicago weather for Sunday currently looks to have wind in the 20-30 mph range. If this condition holds, it may be problematic for Nick Foles if the Saints’ defense can force passing opportunities with a lead.
