NFL Week 7 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 7 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 7: October 17 – 21, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 7.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 7 Byes – Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Daniel Jones (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7200 (12% of cap). Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 9th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Jones posted a 15/31, 161, 1:3 aerial line and 2-8-0 on the ground at New England last week.

The betting line with the Cardinals (2-3-1) has the game total at 50 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Giants (2-4) as -3 point home favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 26.5 points and the Cardinals are currently at 23.5 points.

Matt Ryan logged a 30/36, 356, 4:0 passing line and 2-7-0 on the ground at Arizona last week, good for a QB1/QB2 finish on DK/FD, respectively.

The Cardinals’ defense ranks 31st vs. QBs, 21st vs. WRs, and 32nd vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. Arizona’s defense also ranks 29th in Football Outsider’s DVOA pass defense metric.

Jones just finished a brutal two-game stretch against Minnesota and New England with a veritable supporting M.A.S.H. unit at his disposal. This week’s matchup hosting Arizona will be quite different, and for the first time this season, Jones’ supporting cast will be at near full-strength. RB Saquon Barkley, TE Evan Engram, and WR Golden Tate will all be in play together for the first time with Jones.

WR Sterling Shephard (concussion) will be missing on the perimeter, with Darius Slayton likely occupied by Patrick Peterson, who returns from suspension this week. The Cardinals lead the league in pace and rank 4th in plays/gm, with the Giants ranking 11th in pace.

A high-total game as home favorites, in a voluminous play scenario with shootout potential, with all the skill weapons available, and a cakewalk matchup, pretty much checks off the boxes for Jones this week.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300 (12.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7900 (13.17% of cap). Ryan’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

Ryan is the current QB2/QB4 on DK/FD, respectively on the season, having thrown for over 300+ yards in every game, averaging 335.17 pass yards and 2.67 total TDs per game.

The betting line with the Rams (3-3) has the game total at 54.5 points (highest on the board) with the Falcons (1-5) as +3 point home dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Rams are currently at 28.75 points.

Jimmy Garoppolo put up a 24/43, 243, 0:1 passing line and 5-4-1 on the ground with a lost fumble at the Los Angeles Rams last week.

The Rams’ defense ranks 12th vs. QBs, 11th vs. WRs, and 20th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. Both teams combined average north of 65+ plays/gm and both have throwing %s north of 60%, so a high play volume should be there this week.

The Rams had a major shakeup in their secondary this week as CB Aqib Talib (ribs) was placed on IR, CB Marcus Peters was traded to Baltimore for LB Kenny Young, and CB Jalen Ramsey was added via trade with Jacksonville. Ramsey is expected to matchup with Julio Jones this week.

Shootout potential looms heavy in this game, and all pieces on both sides should be in play this week.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000 (10% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6700 (11.17% of cap). Jacobs’ upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/13th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on DK.

Jacobs posted a 26-123-2 rush line and 3-20-0 on 3 targets with 50 snaps (68%) against the Bears (20th vs. RBs), good for an RB3 finish on both DK/FD in week 5.

The betting line with the Packers (5-1) has the game total at 47 points with the Raiders (3-2) as +5.5 point road dogs. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Raiders are currently at 22 points. The Raiders are coming off their bye and the Packers are coming off a short week having played on MNF.

Detroit RBs combined for a 17-47-1 rushing line and 4-34-0 on 7 targets at Green Bay last week.

Green Bay’s defense ranks 29th against RBs in fantasy points allowed. Oakland’s O-line ranks 3rd in adjusted line yards while Green Bay’s D-line ranks 30th.

Jacobs’ matchup is very solid and offers good value with upside as the anticipated focal point of the offense as long as this game stays close. WR Tyrell Williams (plantar fascia) is looking doubtful, leaving TE Darren Waller and Jacobs as the only playable assets. If the Raiders don’t get blown out early, Jacobs should be heavily involved.
Update:
RG Gabe Jackson (MCL) returns from IR and will make his season debut this week. RT Trent Brown (calf) is doubtful and WR Tyrell Williams (foot) is out.

Devonta Freeman (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400 (10.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6400 (11.17% of cap). Freeman’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.

Freeman posted a 19-88-0 rush line and 3-30-2 on 3 targets with 50 snaps (72%) against the Cardinals (9th vs. RBs). Freeman’s fantasy points of 26.8/25.3 ranked him 6th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Freeman’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Rams (3-3) has the game total at 54.5 points (highest on the board) with the Falcons (1-5) as +3 point home dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Rams are currently at 28.75 points.

San Francisco RBs combined for a 35-94-1 rushing line and 6-43-0 on 7 targets at the Los Angeles Rams last week. The Rams’ defense ranks 21st against RBs in fantasy points allowed.

Freeman should remain script-independent regardless of how this game goes, as he ranks 11th (tied) in targets, 10th in catches, and 1st (tied) in receiving TDs for RBs. Freeman makes for the best value option of the RBs in this game.

Wide Receiver

Allen Lazard (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). Lazard’s upcoming salary is the stone-minimum on both DK/FD.

Lazard posted a 4-65-1 line on 5 targets with 17 snaps (23%) against the Lions (18th vs. WRs) last week. Lazard’s fantasy points of 16.5/14.5 ranked him 17th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Lazard’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Lazard’s snaps came entirely in the fourth quarter.

Chicago WRs combined for an 11-149-2 receiving line on 17 targets against Oakland in week 5. Oakland ranks 25th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 26th in DVOA pass defense.

Last week, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Jones both dropped sure TDs. Darrius Shephard had a pass clank off his facemask at the goal-line, leading to an interception, and his subsequent benching. Geronimo Allison (concussion/chest) left the game, and per Aaron Rodgers’ suggestion, Lazard enters the fray with his stat line helping the Packers to their comeback victory.

The Packers signed free agent Ryan Grant for WR depth, perhaps an indication that Davante Adams (toe) and Allison may not go this week. Be that the case, Lazard and Jake Kumerow should align opposite Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and also assuming Shephard remains in the doghouse.

The list of Green Bay players not contributing to Rodgers’ aneurysm is growing woefully low, and Lazard is currently on this list. Lazard would make for an intriguing, cheap play, and at 6’5″, 227 lbs. with 4.5 wheels, could present a matchup problem for an underwhelming Oakland secondary.
Update:
Adams (toe) has already been ruled out. Allison and MVS haven’t practiced all week.

DK Metcalf (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800 (9.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6200 (10.33% of cap). Metcalf’s upcoming salary ranks him 32nd/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

Metcalf posted a 4-69-0 receiving line on 5 targets and 1-4-0 on the ground, with 59 snaps (71%) at Cleveland (14th vs. WRs) last week. Bengals WRs combined for a 12-148-0 line on 25 targets at Baltimore last week.

The betting line with the Ravens (4-2) has the game total at 49.5 points (3rd highest on the board) with the Seahawks (5-1) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 26.5 points and the Ravens are currently at 23 points.

The Ravens’ defense ranks 22nd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 21st in DVOA pass defense. Tyler Lockett may see shadow coverage from Marlon Humphrey whether on the perimeter or the slot, which by default gives Metcalf the better matchup. TE Will Dissly (achilles) is also out for the season. Metcalf leads the team in red zone targets with 7, although none have connected. Metcalf is also the only WR on the team to not have a red zone score. His time is coming.

Tight End

Hunter Henry (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000 (8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Henry’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Henry posted an 8-100-2 line on 9 targets with 41 snaps (66%) against Pittsburgh (27th vs. TEs) last week. Henry’s fantasy points of 33/26 ranked him 1st/1st on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Henry’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/1st on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Titans (2-4) has the game total at 39.5 points with the Chargers (2-4) as +2.5 point road dogs. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 18.75 points and the Titans are currently at 20.75 points.

Noah Fant posted a 2-16-0 line on 3 targets against the Titans last week. The Titans’ defense ranks 21st against TEs in fantasy points allowed.

It was great to see Henry healthy and doing big horse things last week, but his last week’s stat line needs some reality-check context. The Chargers were down 24-0 heading into the fourth quarter. Both of Henry’s scores came in fourth quarter garbage-time, with Pittsburgh’s defense not really giving a crap. The Chargers’ best positional matchup vs. the Titans does come at the TE position however.

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