NFL Week 4: October 1 – 5, 2020
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 4.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games). This is currently tentative due to Tennessee’s COVID-19 outbreak.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
UPDATE:
The Pittsburgh @ Tennessee game has been postponed. This game has been removed from DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400 (10.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7100 (11.8% of cap). Fitzpatrick’s upcoming salary ranks him 24th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Seahawks has the game total at 54.5 points with the Dolphins as +6.5 point home dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Seahawks is currently at 30.5 points.
Fitzpatrick posted an 18/20, 160, 2:0 passing line, and 7-38-1 on the ground at Jacksonville last week. His 25.2/24.7 fantasy points ranked him 6th for the position on both DK/FD.
Dak Prescott recorded a 34/57, 472, 3:2 passing line, and 6-26-0 on the ground with a lost fumble at Seattle last week, good for a QB4 finish.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks 31st against QBs and last against WRs in fantasy points allowed through three weeks, albeit having faced Dallas, New England, and Atlanta. The Seahawks’ defense also ranks last in passing yards allowed (430.7/gm).
The Seahawks’ defense ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Dolphins’ offense which ranks 11th, which should give Fitzpatrick sufficient pocket-time to do…something. With shootout potential implied on Fitzpatrick’s side, there is also potential for a Fitzmagic week at a discount cost.
UPDATE:
The Seahawks’ SS Jamal Adams (groin), CB Quinton Dunbar (knee), and LB Jordyn Brooks (knee) have been ruled out, and CB Shaquill Griffin (shoulder) is questionable. Adams is Seattle’s sack leader. Giddy up…
Deshaun Watson (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6600 (13.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7800 (13% of cap). Watson’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Vikings has the game total at 54 points, with the Texans as -3.5 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 28.75 points and the Vikings are currently at 25.25 points.
Watson posted a 19/27, 264, 2:1 passing line, and 1-5-0 on the ground at Pittsburgh last week.
Ryan Tannehill recorded a 23/37, 321, 0:1 passing line, and 4-9-0 on the ground at Minnesota last week.
The Vikings’ defense ranks 10th against QBs and 29th against WRs in fantasy points allowed.
Watson had a tough start to the season, having to face the defenses of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Kansas City. He’ll get his first soft matchup of the season against a Vikings’ defense that lacks the pressure Watson had to endure while taking 13 sacks and 34 QB hits through the first three weeks.
Recency bias should help keep his popularity down this week as well.
As of the time of this writing, this game is still scheduled to play. Be that the case, the Vikings are currently restricted from their facility and could miss practice and preparation time due to possible exposure from Tennessee’s positive COVID tests last week. This scenario would inherently give the Texans the preparation advantage.
Running Back
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800 (11.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6400 (10.7% of cap). Henderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Giants has the game total at 48 points with the Rams as -12.5 point home favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 30.25 points and the Giants are currently at 17.75 points. The spread on the Rams is the 2nd widest on the board.
Henderson posted a 20-114-1 rushing line and 1-6-0 on 3 targets with 34 snaps (49%) at Buffalo last week. Henderson’s fantasy points of 22/18.5 ranked him 10th/11th on DK/FD, respectively
The 49ers’ RBs combined for a 28-62-2 rushing line and 8-109-1 on 9 targets at the Giants last week.
The Giants rank 23rd vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Rams’ offense ranks 3rd in adjusted line yards vs. the Giants’ defense which ranks 7th.
The Rams lead the league in rush attempts (111) and rank 3rd (tied) in rush yards per game (170.3). Henderson has already been given the nod to start in this ideal setup this week.
Devin Singletary (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10.0% of cap). Singletary’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/19th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Raiders has the game total at 52 points with the Bills as -3 point road favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Raiders are currently at 24.5 points.
Singletary posted a 13-71-0 rushing line and 4-50-0 on 5 targets with 55 snaps (89%) against the Rams last week.
The Patriots’ RBs combined for a 26-209-2 rushing line and 10-78-1 on 14 targets against the Raiders last week.
The Raiders rank last vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Bills’ O-line ranks 21st in adjusted line yards vs. the Raiders’ defense which ranks last.
The positive game-script and the nuts matchup sets up Singletary nicely this week. His biggest adversary is teammate Josh Allen for the goal-line looks. This play is contingent that Zach Moss (toe) misses again this week.
Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600 (9.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.8% of cap). Renfrow’s upcoming salary ranks him 48th/48th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Bills has the game total at 52 points with the Raiders as +3 point home dogs. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Raiders are currently at 24.5 points.
Renfrow posted a 6-84-1 receiving line on a team high 9 targets with 39 snaps (66%) at New England last week. Renfrow’s receiving line led the team in all categories. Renfrow’s 42.65% of team air yards ranked him 8th in the league last week.
The Rams’ WRs combined for an 18-241-2 line on 22 targets at Buffalo last week.
The Bills’ defense ranks 26th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. The Bills’ defense is most vulnerable at the slot where they have been gashed by fellow slot WRs Cooper Kupp (9-107-1), Isaiah Ford (7-76-0), and Jamison Crowder (7-115-1) the past three weeks, with Renfrow up next.
The Raiders may also be without both perimeter WRs as Henry Ruggs (hamstring) and Bryan Edwards (ankle) may miss time. Renfrow may get additional volume opportunities, with a good matchup, where Derek Carr likes to throw.
UPDATE:
Edwards (ankle) has been ruled out and Ruggs (hamstring) is doubtful.
Will Fuller V (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Fuller’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/27th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Vikings has the game total at 54 points, with the Texans as -3.5 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 28.75 points and the Vikings are currently at 25.25 points.
Fuller posted a 4-54-1 receiving line on 5 targets with 44 snaps (94%) at Pittsburgh last week.
The Titans’ WRs combined for a 12-228-0 line on 18 targets at Minnesota last week.
The Vikings’ defense ranks 29th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. They also rank 30th in passing yards allowed (292.3/gm) and 31st in points allowed (34/gm).
Fuller is still healthy, and is in a prime spot to blow up, before he blows something.
Tight End
Logan Thomas (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4900 (8.2% of cap). Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 19th/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Ravens has the game total at 47 points with Washington as +13 point home dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 17 points and the Ravens are currently at 30 points. Washington is the biggest dog on the board.
Thomas posted a 4-31-0 receiving line on 7 targets with 55 snaps (85%) at Cleveland last week. Thomas’ targets ranked him 2nd on the team. Thomas’ targets and catches rank 2nd on the team, behind Terry McLaurin. Thomas’ 5 targets and 4 catches in the red zone lead the team, and he’s the only Washington pass-catcher to get targets inside the 10 (3).
Travis Kelce put up a 6-87-0 line on 7 targets at Baltimore last week.
The Ravens’ defense ranks 29th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed.
Thomas’ 24 targets ranks him 3rd (tied with Zach Ertz) for TEs. Likely having to play catch-up early, Thomas’ ample opportunities should again present itself. He’s got to hit sooner or later.
Eric Ebron (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Ebron’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Titans has the game total at 47 points with the Steelers as -1.5 point road favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Titans are currently at 22.75 points.
Ebron posted a 5-52-1 receiving line on 7 targets with 60 snaps (75%) against the Texans last week. Ebron’s receiving line led or tied for the lead on the team.
Kyle Rudolph logged a 2-11-1 receiving line on 3 targets against the Titans last week.
The Titans’ defense ranks 24th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed.
Because of Tennessee’s COVID outbreak, they are currently banned from their facility until Saturday. Zoom preparation will likely fill the Titans’ week. Advantage to Pittsburgh, with a reasonably priced Ebron in play.
UPDATE:
The Steelers @ Titans game has been postponed.
