NFL Week 3 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 3 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 3: September 19th – 23rd, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 3.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Kyler Murray (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800 (11.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7200 (12% of cap). Murray’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Murray posted a 25/40, 349, 0:0 aerial line and 3-4-0 on the ground at Baltimore last week. Murray’s fantasy points of 19.36/16.36 ranked him 12th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Panthers (0-2) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Cardinals (0-1-1) as +3 point home dogs. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 24.75 points.

Jameis Winston logged a 16/25, 208, 1:0 passing line and 4-9-0 on the ground at Carolina last week.

Murray is the 2nd QB ever to start his career with consecutive 300+ passing yards. An optimal pace scenario also presents itself in this game as currently the Panthers rank 1st in avg. seconds per play at 22.02 and the Cardinals rank 2nd at 22.23. The Cardinals also run the highest no-huddle rate at 54%. Next highest, 18%. Giddy up.

Murray will be facing his former Texas A&M teammate Kyle Allen, as Cam Newton is expected to miss at least this week.
Update:
Cam has been ruled out for this week.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7800 (13% of cap). Ryan’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/7th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on DK.

Ryan posted a 27/43, 320, 3:3 line against Philadelphia last week. Ryan’s fantasy points of 25.1/22.1 ranked him 5th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Colts (1-1) has the game total at 47 points with the Falcons (1-1) as +1.5 point road dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Colts are currently at 24.25 points.

The Colts gave up a 25/34, 333, 3:1 line to Phillip Rivers in week 1 and got Marcus Mariota last week.

The Colts zone-scheme defense tends to sell-out to prevent deep plays but currently may have injuries to key defensive personnel in LB Darius Leonard (concussion), CB Pierre Desir (knee), DE Jabaal Sheard (knee), and DE Kemoko Turay (neck) heading into week 3. Ryan gets the benefit of another dome game as well.
Update:
Leonard and Sheard have been ruled out this week.

Josh Allen (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Allen’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Allen posted a 19/30, 253, 1:0 passing line and 7-21-1 on the ground at the Giants last week. Allen’s fantasy points of 22.22/22.22 ranked him 9th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Allen’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bengals (0-2) has the game total at 44 points with the Bills (2-0) as -6 point home favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Bengals are currently at 19 points.

Jimmy Garoppolo put up a 17/25, 296, 3:1 passing line and 4-8-0 on the ground at Cincinnati last week. His 23.68 fantasy points ranked him 7th/6th on DK/FD.

Allen faces a Bengals defense ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to QBs and allows the 3rd most rushing yards/gm at 165.5. Allen gets a great home matchup where his rushing floor could explode.

Wide Receiver

Nelson Agholor (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4800 (8% of cap). Agholor’s upcoming salary ranks him 68th/71st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Agholor posted an 8-107-1 line on 11 targets with 78 snaps (96%) at Atlanta last week. Agholor’s fantasy points of 27.7/20.7 ranked him 7th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Agholor’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/2nd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Lions (1-0-1) has the game total at 45.5 points with the Eagles (1-1) as -6.5 point home favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Lions are currently at 19.5 points.

Chargers WRs combined for a 12-209-0 line on 22 targets at Detroit last week.

Agholor’s production came from the in-game injuries to WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen), WR Alshon Jeffery (calf), and a late scratch for TE Dallas Goedert (calf). Jackson and Jeffery are expected to miss at least this week, with Goedert looking very sketchy as well. Normally, the 4th receiving option in this offense, Agholor likely jumps to #2. JJ Arcega-Whiteside (75 snaps at 93%) would make for a nice pivot off of what is likely to be a chalky Agholor play.
Update:
Alshon hasn’t been ruled out is looking like a game-time decision.

Devin Smith (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5200 (8.6% of cap). Smith’s upcoming salary ranks him 73rd/52nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Smith posted a 3-74-1 line on 3 targets with 18 snaps (26%) at Washington last week.

The betting line with the Dolphins (0-2) has the game total at 47 points with the Cowboys (2-0) as -21.5 point (2nd highest spread) home favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 34.25 points and the Dolphins are currently at 12.75 points.

New England WRs combined for a 13-165-1 receiving line on 20 targets last week at Miami. The Dolphins rank 25th against WRs in fantasy points allowed. WR Michael Gallup (knee) had meniscus surgery and will miss at least the next two weeks. For an added bonus, S Minkah Fitzpatrick has been traded to Pittsburgh, making this bottom-feeder defense even worse. Under OC Moore, Dallas primarily runs 11 personnel, now giving Smith a full-time snap opportunity. Smith will step in to take Gallup’s role on the perimeter with a smash matchup this week.

James Washington (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5200 (8.67% of cap). Washington’s upcoming salary ranks him 70th/52nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Washington posted a 2-23-0 line on 3 targets with 34 snaps (60%) against Seattle last week.

The betting line with the 49ers (2-0) has the game total at 44 points with the Steelers (0-2) as +6.5 point road dogs. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 18.75 points and the 49ers are currently at 25.25 points.

Bengals WRs combined for a 17-260-1 receiving line on 26 targets against the 49ers last week.

With Ben Roethlisberger out for the year, Mason Rudolph will take over under center. This switch could actually benefit Washington. Donte Moncrief started the first two games about as bad as it gets, and was benched after he gifted his lone target to an interception for Seattle. Ben will no longer be calling the shots and Washington will now start.

Rudolph and Washington racked up school leading stats together for three years as teammates at Oklahoma State. They’ve also worked together in preseason and on the second team. Their chemistry is already there. Rudolph likes to go deep and has the protection of an elite O-line, and Washington ranks 3rd in the league in avg. targeted air yards with 21.1. Washington is primed for a potential breakout spot.
Update:
WR Diontae Johnson stated that Steelers coaches informed him that he is now the starter. He projects to man the X spot in 10 personnel. He’s the stone minimum on both DK and FD.

Tight End

Greg Olsen (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (7.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.17% of cap). Olsen’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

Olsen posted a 6-110-0 line on 9 targets with 65 snaps (82%) against Tampa Bay last week. Olsen’s fantasy points of 20/14 ranked him 5th/5th on DK/FD for the position. Olsen’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/4th on DK/FD, respectively. Olsen’s yards ranked him 1st and his catches ranked him 2nd on the team last week.

The betting line with the Cardinals (0-1-1) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Panthers (0-2) as -3 point road favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 24.75 points.

Ravens TEs combined for a 10-127-2 line on 13 targets against the Cardinals last week.

Olsen ranks 3rd for TEs in targets (18) and 4th in yards (146). Arizona gives up the most fantasy points to TEs by a double-digit margin. Olsen averages 88% of his teams snaps, which ranks him 5th for TEs. It’s likely Cam Newton (foot) who has been playing injured, sits this week with Kyle Allen filling in. Newton tosses the highest percentage of uncatchable passes this season at 34.2%. At this point, Allen may be an upgrade for Carolina.

Jason Witten (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (7.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.33% of cap). Witten’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Witten posted a 4-25-1 line on 4 targets with 54 snaps (77%) at Washington last week. Witten’s fantasy points of 12.5/10.5 ranked him 7th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Witten’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Dolphins (0-2) has the game total at 47 points with the Cowboys (2-0) as -21.5 point (2nd highest spread) home favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 34.25 points and the Dolphins are currently at 12.75 points.

Witten’s 3 targets and catches inside the 10 yard line lead all TEs where he’s converted them into 2 TDs. Miami also gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to TEs. Witten is four TDs away from surpassing Dez Bryant as the franchise’s all-time leader in receiving TDs. The Cowboys may be hell-bent on getting him there.

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