NFL Week 3 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 3: September 24 – 28, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 3.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Defense
New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3600 (6% of cap). The Giants’ salary ranks them 18th/18th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the 49ers has the game total at 41 points (lowest on the board) with the Giants as +4 point home dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the Giants are currently at 19 points.
At Chicago, the Giants’ defense logged 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, and allowed 17 points, good for 9 fantasy points, which ranked them 7th for defenses last week.
The Jets registered 3 sacks, with 1 interception, and gave up 31 points at San Francisco last week.
The 49ers’ O-line ranks 31st in adjusted line yards after having faced the Cardinals and the Jets. The Giants’ D-line ranks 13th in adjusted line yards after having faced the Steelers and the Bears.
The 49ers’ O-line ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Giants’ D-line ranking 9th.
The 49ers are expected to be without their top two RBs Raheem Mostert (MCL) and Tevin Coleman (knee). TE George Kittle (MCL) is questionable after having missed Week 2, and QB Jimmy Garappolo (high ankle) is expected to be replaced by Nick Mullens this week.
Throw in the early east-coast trip for the wounded Niners, and the Giants’ defense have a decent shot to take advantage of this situation.
UPDATE:
Kittle has been ruled out for Week 3.
New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200 (6.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4900 (8.2% of cap). The Patriots’ salary ranks them 10th/2nd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Raiders has the game total at 47.5 points, with the Patriots as -6.5 point home favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Raiders are currently at 21 points.
The Patriots’ defense registered 2 sacks, 1 interception returned for a TD, and allowed 35 points at Seattle last week.
The Saints’ defense logged 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 34 points at Las Vegas last week.
The Raiders will be heading to New England for an early game, on a short week, where the Patriots await after a road loss. The Pats, however, will no longer have to eat Russ’ cookin’, as they shift gears for Derek “death by a thousand paper cuts” Carr. Not sure what the Saints were “not” doing with Darren Waller, but the under on his 12 catches on 16 targets would seem highly likely.
UPDATE:
WR1 Henry Ruggs (knee/hamstring) has been ruled out, which frees up a particular Defensive MVP. RT Trent Brown (calf) will miss again and RG Richie Incognito (Achilles) has been placed on IR.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (7.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3800 (6.3% of cap). The Bucs’ salary ranks them 5th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Broncos has the game total at 43.5 points with the Bucs as -6 point road favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Broncos are currently at 19 points.
The Bucs’ defense logged 5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles recovered, and held the Panthers to 17 points last week. The Bucs’ 14 fantasy points ranked 3rd.
The Steelers’ defense logged 7 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, a safety, and gave up 21 points to the Broncos last week.
The Broncos’ O-line ranks 23rd in adjusted line yards vs. a Bucs’ D-line that ranks 5th through two weeks. The Broncos’ O-line also ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Bucs’ D-line which ranks 6th. The Broncos have also allowed a league high 24 QB hits.
QB Drew Lock (AC joint) will be replaced with Jeff Driskel, and WR1 Courtland Sutton (ACL) has been placed on IR, ending his season. Denver’s misfortunes provide an added opportunity for the Bucs’ defense this week.
