NFL Week 2 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 2: September 12 – 16, 2019
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 2.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Denver Broncos – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). The Broncos’ salary ranks them 15th/7th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Bears has the game total at 40.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos as +2.5 point home dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Bears are currently at 21.5 points.
At Oakland last week, the Broncos’ defense gave up 24 points, and that ends their stat line, surprisingly. Last season, the Broncos’ defense ranked #5 in overall DVOA.
The Packers’ defense logged 5 sacks and 1 pick while holding the Bears to 3 points and 254 totals yards (5th lowest) in Chicago last week.
Early season games at Denver are no joke. This is setting up as a nice bounce-back spot for the Broncos, as HC Fangio (Chicago’s DC last season) knows Trubisky and co. very well. It will be interesting to see what Fangio dials up for his former team this week.
Houston Texans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800 (5.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4800 (8.0% of cap). Houston’s salary ranks them 13th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Jaguars has the game total at 43.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Texans as -8.5 point (3rd highest spread on the board) home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Jaguars are currently at 17.5 points.
In New Orleans last week, the Texans’ defense logged 1 sack, 1 pick, and gave up 30 points. Stats like this tend to happen in New Orleans.
The Chiefs’ defense tallied 1 sack, 1 pick, and 1 fumble recovery in the win at Jacksonville last week. As big home favorites, Houston will face Gardner Minshew, a 6th round rookie QB, making his first start, after Nick Foles (collarbone) was lost for the year. To his credit, Minshew did play well when he took over last week.
Cincinnati Bengals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600 (5.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3900 (6.5% of cap). The Bengals’ salary ranks them 17th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the 49ers has the game total at 45 points with the Bengals as -1.5 point home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the 49ers are currently at 21.75 points.
At Seattle last week, the Bengals’ defense logged 4 sacks, 9 QB hits (tied for 4th most), 1 fumble recovery, and allowed 21 points. The Bengals’ defense registered a 50% defensive pressure rate last week, ranking them 1st.
The Bucs’ defense tallied 1 sack, 1 pick returned for a TD, 1 fumble recovery, and held the 49ers offense to 14 points, good for 12 fantasy points (tied for 7th). If Tampa Bay’s “defense”, how should we put it, can “not fail”, the Bengals also have a non-zero chance of doing the same against a Niners offense as well. The 49ers offense DVOA ranked them 24th last week while the Bengals defense ranked 13th. The 49ers offense on the road are comparatively an easy downgrade from Seattle at home.Last updated: September 11, 2019 at 17:18 pm