NFL Week 15 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 15 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 15 : December 12 – 16, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 15.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 8400 (14% of cap). Garoppolo’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/1st on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Falcons (4-9) has the game total at 47 points with the 49ers (11-2) as -11 point home favorites. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 29 points and the Falcons are currently at 18 points.

Garoppolo posted a 26/35, 349, 4:1 passing line at New Orleans (24th vs. QBs) last week, good for a QB4/QB5 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Kyle Allen logged a 28/41, 293, 1:2 passing line and 6-24-1 on the ground at Atlanta last week.

The Falcons’ defense ranks 28th vs. QBs and 14th over the past four weeks in fantasy points allowed. Two of these four games were against Kyle Allen, however.

The Falcons’ D-line ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate vs. a 49ers’ O-line which ranks 8th, so Jimmy should have clean pockets to operate from. The Falcons will also be without CB1 Desmond Trufant (broken forearm) for the rest of the season.

On the other side of the line, DL Dee Ford (hamstring) and CB1 Richard Sherman (hamstring) are not expected to return until the playoffs. Additionally, S Jaquiski Tartt (rib), CB K’Waun Williams (concussion), and DT Jullian Taylor (elbow) are out this week. This would help Atlanta’s push-back cause. Jimmy does have ceiling potential in good matchups, but there is risk if the 49ers go heavy ground and pound.

Running Back

Patrick Laird (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5500 (9.17% of cap). Laird’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/40th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Giants (2-11) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Dolphins (3-10) as +3.5 point road dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Giants are currently at 25 points.

Laird posted a 15-48-0 rush line and 4-38-0 on 5 targets with 59 snaps (82%) at the New York Jets (10th vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB20/RB21 finish on DK/FD respectively. Philly RBs combined for a 27-109-1 rush line and 10-93-0 on 12 targets against the Giants last week.

The Giants’ defense ranks 20th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 20th over the past four weeks.

Laird is Miami’s three-down workhorse (82% of RB snaps, 79% of RB touches, 71% of RB targets last week) which should provide for a decent floor considering his usage. Laird gets an easier matchup this week and his cheap cost could help get to more expensive plays elsewhere.

Raheem Mostert (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). Mostert’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/11th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better value on DK.

The betting line with the Falcons (4-9) has the game total at 47 points with the 49ers (11-2) as -11 point home favorites. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 29 points and the Falcons are currently at 18 points.

Mostert posted a 10-69-1 rush line and 2-40-1 on 2 targets with 49 snaps (60%) at New Orleans (5th vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB5/RB4 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Christian McCaffrey logged an 11-53-0 rushing line and 11-82-0 on 12 targets at Atlanta last week.

The Falcons’ defense ranks 13th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 17th over the past four weeks.

Over the past two games:
Mostert – 33 opportunities, 263 total yards, 3 TDs, 51.3 fantasy points.
Matt Breida – 7 opportunities, 58 total yards, 0 TDs, 6.8 fantasy points. (Week 14 only as he returned from a three week absence re: ankle).
Tevin Coleman – 9 opportunities, 15 total yards, 0 TDs, 3.1 fantasy points. Coleman started the last two games, smh.

As two score home favorites with a good matchup against a team that’s dust, 49ers RBs are in a good place. Mostert comes with inherent risk however, since Kyle can always pull his Shanahanigans and clownshoe this rotation up, three-card Monte style. If Mostert ends up as “the guy”…giddyup.

Wide Receiver

Justin Watson (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (7.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). Watson’s upcoming salary ranks him 64th/113th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD.

The betting line with the Lions (3-9-1) has the game total at 47 points with the Bucs (6-7) as -3.5 point road favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Lions are currently at 21.75 points.

Watson logged a 5-59-1 receiving line on 8 targets with 43 snaps (55%) against the Colts (23rd vs. WRs) last week, good for a WR17/WR19 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Minnesota WRs combined for a 9-143-1 receiving line on 13 targets against Tampa Bay last week.

The Lions rank 24th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 27th over the past four weeks.

WR Mike Evans (hamstring) is done for the year. His absence vacates a 23% target share, 35% of air yards, and 1.2 red zone targets/gm. Watson stepped up when Evans went down, and received a game ball for his efforts. Watson makes for a cheap play and should see starter-snaps in 3-receiver sets.

Isaiah Ford (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (7.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5500 (9.17% of cap). Ford’s upcoming salary ranks him 64th/50th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Giants (2-11) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Dolphins (3-10) as +3.5 point road dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Giants are currently at 25 points.

Ford logged a 6-92-0 receiving line on 9 targets (all team highs) with 55 snaps (76%) at the New York Jets (22nd vs. WRs) last week, good for 15.2/12.2 fantasy points on DK/FD, respectively. Philly WRs combined for a 11-100-0 receiving line on 19 targets against the Giants last week.

The Giants rank 28th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 20th over the past four weeks.

WR1 DeVante Parker (concussion), WR Albert Wilson (concussion), and WR Allen Hurns (ankle/knee) are at risk of missing this week, which would uptick Ford’s target share. Ford provides for another cheap play with a good matchup.

UPDATE:
Both Parker and Wilson put in a full practice on Friday and are listed as questionable. If they are a go, obviously this would kill Ford’s value. Jacksonville WRs Chris Conley/Keelan Cole are other viable options at this price range as D.J. Chark has been ruled out.

Tight End

O.J. Howard (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Howard’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Lions (3-9-1) has the game total at 47 points with the Bucs (6-7) as -3.5 point road favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Lions are currently at 21.75 points.

Howard posted a 4-73-0 receiving line on 5 targets with 68 snaps (87%) against the Colts (21st vs. TEs) last week, good for a TE14/TE13 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Minnesota TEs combined for an 8-45-0 line on 9 targets against Detroit last week.

The Lions’ defense ranks 16th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 7th over the past four weeks. The toughest TE Detroit has faced over the past month was Jason Witten and his 8.8 fantasy points in week 11, so no worries.

With Mike Evans (hamstring) out for the season, Howard could get a good piece of his action, especially in the red zone.

Tyler Higbee (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900 (7.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Higbee’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cowboys (6-7) has the game total at 48.5 points with the Rams (8-5) as -1 point road favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Cowboys are currently at 23.75 points.

Higbee posted a 7-116-0 receiving line on 11 targets (team high) with 68 snaps (97%) against the Seahawks (31st vs. TEs) last week, good for a TE3/TE5 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Chicago TEs combined for a 7-92-0 receiving line against Dallas last week.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 23rd against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 3rd over the past four weeks. J.P. Holtz and his 8.6 fantasy points were the toughest TE matchup the Cowboys faced over the past month.

Over the past two weeks, Higbee logged 19 targets, 14 catches, 223 yards, 1 TD, and 58.3 fantasy points. As long as Gerald Everett (knee) remains out, Higbee is essentially the new Cooper Kupp with a good matchup.
UPDATE:
Everett has been ruled out.

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