NFL Week 14: December 8th – 12th, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 14.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Indianapolis Colts – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. Indianapolis’ salary ranks them 20th/18th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Texans at 47 points with the Colts as -6 point home favorites.
Indianapolis’ defense ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed (109.6), 28th in passing yards allowed (271.3), and 25th in points allowed (25.9). Indianapolis ranks 26th (tied) in takeaways (11) and tied for 22nd in sacks (23). Indianapolis also ranks 30th against QBs (19.55), 24th against RBs (19.4), 16th against WRs (24.26), and 25th against TEs (8.64) in fantasy points allowed. Indianapolis recorded one sack, two picks, and held the Jets to 10 points in New Jersey last week.
Houston’s offense ranks 5th in rush yards gained (121.0), 30th in pass yards gained (194.9), and 28th in points scored (17.3). Houston also ranks 6h worst (tied) in giveaways with 20 and gives up the 8th most fantasy points to defenses. Green Bay logged two sacks, a turnover, and held Houston to 13 points last week.
The Colts’ defense should get a pass-funnel scenario against Brock Osweiler in the home dome. The Colts’ defense has been a bottom-half unit, but they get a positive game-script and another shot at Osweiler. Osweiler is ranked fourth in the league in interceptions (13). The Colts have an opportunity to take the division lead from Houston with a win and taking an early lead with Andrew Luck and his offensive skill players all healthy, could put Houston in a tough come-from-behind scenario. Houston may be without CB1 Johnathan Joseph (cracked ribs/bruised lung) which should help the Colts get off to a fast start.
The Colts will be without ILB D’Qwell Jackson (PEDs) who has been suspended for the next four games, so containing Lamar Miller would need to be a priority for this defense.
Detroit Lions – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Detroit’s salary ranks them 3rd/9th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Bears at 43.5 points with the Lions as -8 point home favorites (widest spread on the board).
Detroit’s defense ranks 20th in passing yards allowed (256.6), 13th in rushing yards allowed (98.2), and 11th (tied) in points allowed (20.9). Detroit ranks tied for 18th in takeaways (14) and tied for 26th in sacks (21). Detroit also ranks 24th against QBs (18.08), 8th against RBs (15.59), 7th against WRs (21.62), and 31st against TEs (11.21) in fantasy points allowed. Detroit impressively had a sack, three picks, and held New Orleans to 13 points in the Superdome last week.
Chicago’s offense ranks 19th in rush yards gained (102.1), 17th in pass yards gained (246.1), and 30th in points scored (17.0). Chicago also ranks 13th worst (tied) in giveaways with 17.
Detroit faces an exploitable Matt Barkley who has a team low 65.7 passer rating and more picks (4) than TDs (3) in his three appearances thus far this season. By containing Chicago’s lone bright spot in Jordan Howard, Detroit could potentially force a pass-funnel script for Barkley, especially if Matt Stafford and co. can jump to an early lead against a decimated Bears defense.
Atlanta Falcons – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. Atlanta’s salary ranks them 8th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Rams at 45 points with the Falcons as -6 point road favorites.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 15th in rushing yards allowed (100.8), last in passing yards allowed (280.8), and 29th in points allowed (27.6). Atlanta ranks 20th (tied) in takeaways (13) and tied for 19th in sacks (25). Atlanta also ranks last against QBs (20.59), 30th against RBs (21.83), 25th against WRs (25.03), and 28th against TEs (10.33) in fantasy points allowed.
The Rams’ offense ranks 30th in rush yards gained (79.2), 29th in pass yards gained (204.8), and last in points scored (15.0). Los Angeles also ranks 9h worst (tied) in giveaways with 19, gives up the 8th most sacks with 31, and also gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to defenses. New England logged four sacks, two picks, and held Los Angeles to 10 points last week.
Atlanta, a bottom-third defensive unit however, gets their turn against Jared Goff and an impotent offense bereft of talent. Atlanta should potentially dictate the terms of this engagement with Matt Ryan and his offensive weapons securing an early lead, giving Atlanta plenty of opportunities to take their shots at Goff in come-from-behind mode.