NFL Week 14 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 14: December 6 –10, 2018
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our value DFS defense picks for week 14.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2300, FanDuel (FD) – 3700. The Cardinals’ salary ranks them 19th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Lions (4-8) has the game total at 40.5 points (3rd lowest on the board) with the Cardinals (3-9) as +2.5 point home dogs. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Lions are currently at 21.5 points.
The Lions rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, 23rd in yards with 340/gm, and 23rd in points with 21.2/gm. The Lions give up the 9th (tied) most sacks with 36 and the 9th (tied) most turnovers with 18. The Rams’ defense logged 4 sacks, a pick, a fumble recovery, and held the Lions to 16 points, scoring 9 fantasy points.
The Cardinals’ defense ranks 3rd (tied) in sacks with 38, 8th in QB hits with 77, and 21st (tied) in takeaways with 13. The Cardinals’ defense logged a sack and held the Packers to 17 points in the stunning upset in Green Bay last week.
The Redbirds bring pressure and the Lions allow it, which bodes well as a favorable matchup scenario for a cheap defense at home.
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2300, FanDuel (FD) – 3700. The Chiefs’ salary ranks them 19th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Ravens (7-5) has the game total at 53 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Chiefs (10-2) as -6.5 point home favorites. The Ravens’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Chiefs are currently at 29.75 points. This game will be important for both teams.
QB Lamar Jackson averages 1.33 turnovers and 2 sacks in his three starts this season. In those starts, the Ravens have given up an average of 6.7 fantasy points to the not exactly murderers’ row of defenses in Atlanta, Oakland, and Cincinnati.
The Chiefs’ defense ranks 8th in fantasy points, 2nd in sacks with 39, 3rd (tied) in QB hits, and 9th (tied) in turnovers created with 20. The Chiefs are a different animal at home. They allow 97.4 fewer total yards, 14.5 fewer points, and score 6.4 more fantasy points at home. The Chiefs’ defense logged 3 sacks and 3 fumble recoveries at Oakland last week.
There is also a non-zero chance that S Eric Berry (heel) could finally make his season debut this week.
New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500, FanDuel (FD) – 3500. The Giants’ salary ranks them 13th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting line with Washington (6-6) has the game total at 41 points with the Giants (4-8) as -3.5 point road favorites. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 18.75 points and the Giants are currently at 22.25 points.
The Giants’ defense logged 5 sacks, 2 picks with one returned for a TD, and a fumble recovery against the Bears last week. The Giants’ 17 fantasy points ranked them 2nd (tied). The Giants rank 15th (tied) in turnovers created with 16, but rank near bottom in most metrics. This is not a good defense by any means, but there is a worse scenario…
Washington lost both STARTING BACKUP guards at Philadelphia last week. I have no idea who the backup guards to those backups are supposed to be, but good luck with that. Backup QB Colt McCoy (broken fibula) exited last week’s game in the second quarter, to be replaced by 3rd stringer Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez. In relief of McCoy, Sanchez posted a 13/21, 100, 0:1 line with 2 sacks. This is now certainly the worst offense in football.
Other than another Adrian Peterson 90 yard TD jaunt or a pick-six, it will be interesting to see how Washington gets anywhere near their implied team total.
New Orleans Saints – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 3800. The Saints’ salary ranks them 9th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Bucs (5-7) has the game total at 55.5 points (highest on the board) with the Saints (10-2) as -8 point road favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Saints are currently at 31.75 points.
The Bucs rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, 15th (tied) in sacks allowed with 32, and give up the most turnovers (by 5) with 30. The Panthers’ defense logged 4 sacks and a fumble recovery at Tampa Bay last week.
The Saints’ defense ranks 5th (tied) in sacks with 37 and 12th (tied) in takeaways with 19. The Saints’ defense logged a sack and held the Packers to 17 points in the stunning upset in Green Bay last week. The Saints’ defense has been coming along lately, as they have averaged 13 fantasy points per game over their past four. The Saints recorded 7 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and held the Cowboys to 13 points at Dallas last week.
The projected game flow could have this game turning into a shootout, especially for Tampa Bay’s side. This scenario will then offer multiple pathways for the Saints’ defense to tally up points. Jameis Winston hasn’t had a turnover in his past two games, his only games on the year without one. We’ll see if this trend continues this week.Last updated: December 4, 2018 at 16:39 pm