NFL Week 14 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 14: December 10 – 14, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 14.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines and weather projections are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Defense
San Francisco 49ers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.7% of cap). The 49ers’ salary ranks them 12th/4th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with Washington (5-7) has the game total at 43.5 points, with the 49ers (5-7) as -4.5 point home favorites. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and Washington is currently at 19.5 points.
The 49ers’ defense registered 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 34 offensive points against the Bills last week.
The Steelers’ defense logged 3 sacks, and gave up 23 offensive points to Washington last week.
The 49ers’ defense ranks 22nd in adjusted sack rate vs. Washington’s offense which ranks 27th.
Washington ranks 21st vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed while the 49ers’ defense ranks 16th in fantasy points/gm.
Washington may likely be without RB1 Antonio Gibson (turf toe), after exiting in the first quarter last week.
UPDATE:
Gibson hasn’t practiced all week and is unlikely to go this week.
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4200 (7% of cap). The Cardinals’ salary ranks them 12th/5th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Giants (5-7) has the game total at 45 points, with the Cardinals (6-6) as -2.5 point road favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Giants are currently at 21.25 points.
The Cardinals’ recorded 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 32 offensive points to the Rams last week.
The Seahawks’ defense logged 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 blocked kick recovered for a safety, and allowed 17 offensive points to the Giants last week.
The Cardinals’ defense ranks 17th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Giants’ offense which ranks 20th.
The Giants rank 26th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed, while the Cardinals’ defense ranks 18th in fantasy points/gm.
QB Colt McCoy starts again were Daniel Jones (hamstring) to miss this week.
UPDATE:
Jones is expected to start, however, his greatest strength (mobility) will not be at full strength.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900 (5.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4100 (6.8% of cap). The Bucs’ salary ranks them 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Vikings (6-6) has the game total at 52.5 points, with the Bucs (7-5) as -6.5 point home favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 29.5 points and the Vikings are currently at 23 points. The Bucs are coming off their bye.
The Bucs’ defense recorded 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 27 offensive points to the Chiefs in Week 12.
The Jaguars’ defense logged 4 sacks, 1 interception returned for a TD, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 25 offensive points to the Vikings last week, good for the DST2 finish.
The Bucs’ defense ranks 5th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Vikings’ offense which ranks 24th.
The Vikings rank 24th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed, while the Bucs’ defense ranks 8th in fantasy points/gm. The Vikings give up the 5th most turnovers (21) while the Bucs’ DST ranks 2nd (tied) in takeaways (20).
This is a strength vs. strength matchup. If the Bucs’ defensive strength (1st in DVOA vs. the run) against the Vikings’ run offense (1st in adjusted line yards/6th in rush yards) prevails, they can take utilize their pass rush advantage against Kirk Cousins.
Seattle Seahawks – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). The Seahawks’ salary ranks them 6th/1st on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Jets (0-12) has the game total at 47 points, with the Seahawks (8-4) as -13.5 point home favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 30.25 points and the Jets are currently at 16.75 points.
The Seahawks’ defense logged 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 blocked kick recovered for a safety, and allowed 17 offensive points to the Giants last week.
The Raiders’ DST registered 3 sacks, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries, and gave up 28 offensive points at the Jets last week.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks 14th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Jets’ offense which ranks 29th.
The Jets rank last in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, while the Seahawks’ DST ranks 15th in fantasy points/gm.
If Seattle’s offense can show up this week, and with the largest implied spread on the board, let’s assume this happens. Then, pathways to attacking the Jets’ pass offense should be there. Wouldn’t it be just glorious if S Jamal Adams goes nuclear against his former team?
