NFL Week 11 DFS Value Player Picks
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NFL Week 11: November 19 – 23, 2020

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 11.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.


Quarterback

Joe Burrow (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.8% of cap). Burrow’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better value on DK.

The betting line with Washington (2-7) has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Bengals (2-6-1) as +1 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and Washington is currently at 23.75 points.

Burrow posted a 21/40, 213, 1:0 passing line at Pittsburgh (4th vs. QBs) last week.

Matthew Stafford put up a 24/33, 276, 3:0 passing line against Washington last week.

Washington’s defense ranks 11th against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 2nd over the past four weeks. Adding context to this however, is that outside of Stafford, Washington’s DST got the glorious benefit of facing Daniel Jones, the Cowboys’ QBs, and had a bye.

The Bengals’ offense ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate vs. Washington’s defense which ranks 2nd. As is the case every week, Burrow must deal with negative pressure scenarios.

Burrow provides for a decent DK value, considering the likes of Rivers, Tua, Jameis, etc. are actually priced above him.

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700 (13.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 8000 (13.3% of cap). Ben’s upcoming salary ranks him 4th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Jaguars (1-8) has the game total at 47.5 points, with the Steelers (9-0) as -10 point road favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 28.75 points and the Jaguars are currently at 18.75 points.

Ben recorded a 27/46, 333, 4:0 passing line against the Bengals (26th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB2 finish.

Aaron Rodgers recorded a 24/34, 325, 2:1 passing line and 3-4-1 on the ground against the Jaguars last week.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks 30th against QBs in fantasy points allowed and last over the past four weeks. The Jaguars’ DST has given up at least 19 fantasy points to QBs in 8 of their 9 games. The lone exception was Matthew Stafford.

The Steelers’ offense ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate vs. a Jaguars’ defense which ranks last. Pressure should not be an issue for Ben.

Also, the Steelers’ rush offense ranks 31st in adjusted line yards vs. a Jaguars’ defense which ranks 8th. The Steelers’ rush
offense ranks 29th in DVOA vs. a Jaguars’ defense which ranks 20th. However, the Steelers’ pass offense ranks 15th in DVOA vs. a Jaguars’ defense which ranks 31st.

The on-paper matchup, considering the Steelers’ rush or pass offense vs. the Jaguars’ defensive counterparts, gives the edge to the Steelers’ pass offense.

Ben and his receivers are in a good spot.

Running Back

Salvon Ahmed (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800 (9.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Ahmed’s upcoming salary ranks him 35th/30th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Broncos (3-6) has the game total at 45.5 points, with the Dolphins (6-3) as -3 point road favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Broncos are currently at 21.25 points.

Ahmed, making his first start, posted a 21-85-1 rushing line and 1-5-0 on 1 target with 44 snaps (76%) against the Chargers (22nd vs. RBs) last week.

The Raiders’ RBs combined for a 37-193-4 rushing line and 5-26-0 on 5 targets against the Broncos last week.

The Broncos’ DST ranks 19th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 31st over the past four weeks. The Dolphins’ O-line ranks 28th in adjusted line yards vs. the Broncos’ defense which ranks 16th.

Ahmed made the most of his starting opportunity last week, and looks to have secured a workhorse role. This would make for a rare scenario at his price tag.

UPDATE:
RB Matt Breida (hamstring) put in a full practice on Wednesday which should have him on track this week. Breida should now cut in on passing downs.

D’Andre Swift (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400 (12.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6900 (11.5% of cap). Swift’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Panthers (3-7) has the game total at 48.5 points with the Lions (4-5) as +1.5 point road dogs. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 24.75 points.

Swift posted a 16-81-0 rushing line and 5-68-1 on 5 targets with 43 snaps (73%) against Washington (9th vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB5 finish.

The Bucs’ RBs combined for a 31-211-1 rushing line, and 3-17-0 on 5 targets at Carolina last week.

The Panthers rank 29th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 20th over the past four weeks. The Lions’ offense rank 22nd in adjusted line yards vs. the Panthers’ defense which ranks 23rd.

It only took until Week 10 for the brain-trust in Detroit to figure out that Swift is THE guy. Impressive. Finally, Swift should proceed as the every-down back with a weekly target matchup on deck, barring further brain-farts coming out of Detroit.

UPDATE:
Swift (concussion) missed practice Thursday. Now in the protocol, Swift’s availability is in serious doubt.

Wide Receiver

Jakeem Grant (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (8.3% of cap). Grant’s upcoming salary ranks him 59th/86th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Broncos (3-6) has the game total at 45.5 points, with the Dolphins (6-3) as -3 point road favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Broncos are currently at 21.25 points.

Grant posted a 4-43-1 receiving line on 5 targets with 44 snaps (76%) against the Chargers (6th vs. WRs) last week. Grant’s catches and yards led the team.

The Raiders’ WRs combined for an 8-91-0 receiving line on 12 targets against the Broncos last week.

The Broncos’ defense ranks 17th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 18th over the past four weeks.

While Preston Williams is on IR, Grant is the WR2 in Miami. With WR2 snaps and priced just above the minimum, Grant has the opportunity to easily out perform his salary.

Jakobi Meyers (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (9.3% of cap). Meyers’ upcoming salary ranks him 31st/26th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Texans (2-7) has the game total at 48 points with the Patriots (4-5) as -2.5 point road favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Texans are currently at 22.75 points.

Meyers posted a 5-59-0 receiving line on 7 targets, and a 1/1, 24, 1:0 passing line on a BeliTricks play, with 57 snaps (98%) against the Ravens (5th vs. WRs) last week.

Browns’ WRs combined for an 8-93-0 receiving line on 12 targets against the Texans last week.

The Texans’ defense ranks 23rd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 19th over the past four weeks.

Meyers averaged 10.3 targets, 7.7 catches, and 95.3 yards with a 40% target share over his past three games. Meyers also ranks 3rd in the league in yards per routes run. Meyers has claimed the WR1 role, and when Cam does throw, Meyers is the guy. Any receiving scores would be an outlier however, as Cam has only thrown 3 TDs all season.

Meyers’ only competition would be his team’s run-first approach.

The Patriots’ rush offense ranks 3rd in adjusted line yards vs. a Texans’ defense which ranks last. The Patriots’ rush offense ranks 2nd in DVOA vs. a Texans’ defense which ranks last. The Patriots’ run game will be in play.

Tight End

Logan Thomas (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5200 (8.7% of cap). Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 16th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bengals (2-6-1) has the game total at 46.5 points with Washington (2-7) as -1 point home favorites. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Bengals are currently at 22.75 points.

Thomas posted a 4-66-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 87 snaps (99%) at Detroit (13th vs. TEs) last week, good for the TE6 finish.

Eric Ebron put up a 2-38-0 receiving line on 6 targets against the Bengals last week.

The Bengals’ defense ranks 31st vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 28th over the past four weeks.

With 12 targets over his past two games, and the easiest matchup he’ll get, Thomas make for a cheap, solid floor play.

Austin Hooper (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900 (7.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Hooper’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Eagles (3-5-1) has the game total at 47.5 points with the Browns (6-3) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Eagles are currently at 21.75 points.

Hooper put up a 1-11-0 receiving line on 2 targets against the Texans last week in the wind game.

Giants’ TEs combined for a 4-27-0 receiving line on 5 targets at the Giants last week.

The Eagles’ defense ranks 28th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 11th over the past four weeks.

Other than a chance of rain, weather should not be an issue in Cleveland.