NFL Week 11 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 11 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 11: November 14 – 18, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 11.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 11 Byes: Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans

Quarterback

Kyle Allen (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300 (10.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7200 (12% of cap). Allen’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Falcons (2-7) has the game total at 49.5 points with the Panthers (5-4) as -5.5 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Falcons are currently at 22 points.

Allen posted a 28/43, 307, 1:1 passing line with 3-12-0 on the ground with a lost fumble at Green Bay (8th vs. QBs) last week, good for a QB13/16 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Drew Brees logged a 32/45, 287, 0:0 passing line against the Falcons last week.

The Falcons’ defense ranks 28th vs. QBs and 26th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. The Falcons’ pass defense also ranks 31st in DVOA and their D-Line ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate.

Allen stood out as a solid floor, cheap play with a great home matchup.

Running Back

Brian Hill (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800 (9.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.83% of cap). Hill’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/24th on DK/FD, respectively.

Hill posted a 20-61-0 rush line and 1-10-1 on 2 targets with 40 snaps (51%) at New Orleans (4th vs. RBs) last week. Hill’s fantasy points of 14.1/13.6 ranked him 15th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. His price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.

Green Bay RBs combined for a 26-156-3 (6.0 yds/att) rushing line against the Panthers last week. The Panthers’ defense ranks 29th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and last over the past four weeks.

With Devonta Freeman (foot) set to miss the next two weeks, and Ito Smith already placed on IR, Hill gets a full bellcow role with a great matchup for cheap.

Tevin Coleman (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6700 (11.17% of cap). Coleman’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.

Coleman posted a 9-40-0 rush line and 4-32-0 on 4 targets with 44 snaps (50%) against Seattle (13th vs. RBs) last week.

The betting line with the Cardinals (3-6-1) has the game total at 45.5 points with the 49ers (8-1) as -11 point home favorites. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Cardinals are currently at 17.25 points.

Tampa Bay RBs combined for a 23-78-2 rushing line and 12-105-0 on 13 targets against the Cardinals last week. The Cardinals’ defense ranks 21st against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 29th over the past four weeks. The Cardinals’ D-line ranks 17th in adjusted line yards vs. the 49ers’ O-line which ranks 9th.

With Matt Breida (ankle) expected to miss this week, his 34.1% snap-share should mostly be absorbed by Coleman, although Raheem Mostert should see a bump up in snaps as well. With TE George Kittle (knee) and WR1 Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) currently game-time decisions, emphasis on the run, even more so, should be in play for San Francisco.

Wide Receiver

Russell Gage (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.83% of cap). Gage’s upcoming salary ranks him 69th/43rd on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK.

Gage posted a 4-23-0 line on 5 targets with 49 snaps (62%) at New Orleans (21st vs. WRs) last week.

Green Bay WRs combined for a 15-174-0 receiving line on 22 targets against Carolina last week. Carolina ranks 24th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed.

TE Austin Hooper (MCL) will miss this week, which vacates his 81.8% snap-share and 17.7% target-share. As the slot WR, Gage could pick up for some of Hooper’s targets between the hash marks. There’s an opportunity window here for a near minimum priced play in a decent matchup.

Deebo Samuel (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000 (8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.33% of cap). Samuel’s upcoming salary ranks him 45th/30th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

Deebo posted an 8-112-0 receiving line on 11 targets (targets/catches/yards = team highs), with 73 snaps (83%) against Seattle (23rd vs. WRs) last week.

Tampa Bay WRs combined for a 14-206-0 receiving line on 26 targets against Arizona last week. Arizona’s defense ranks 22nd vs. WRs in fantasy points.

With TE George Kittle and WR Manny Sanders looking iffy this week, Deebo becomes the 49ers de facto WR1 for a cheap price. Kittle and Sanders combine for 13.1 targets/gm. Deebo’s 5.4 targets/gm should get a big bump in their absences.

Mohamed Sanu (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100 (10.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.67% of cap). Sanu’s upcoming salary ranks him 30th/28th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Sanu posted a 10-81-1 receiving line on 14 targets (team high) with 67 snaps (100%) at Baltimore (19th vs. WRs) in week 9, good for 24.1/19.1 fantasy points on DK/FD, and a WR9 finish.

The betting line with the Eagles (5-4) has the game total at 44.5 points with the Patriots (8-1) as -3.5 point road favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Eagles are currently at 20.5 points. Both teams are coming off their byes.

Philadelphia’s defense ranks 25th vs. WRs in fantasy points.

Sanu has quickly been inducted into Brady’s circle of trust since being traded from Atlanta. In week 9 comparison, Julian Edelman posted a 10-89-0 receiving line on 11 targets with 67 snaps (100%), yet he’s the WR4/WR8 in salary cost on DK/FD, respectively.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.83% of cap). Hockenson’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Hockenson posted a 3-47-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 48 snaps (58%) at Chicago (28th vs. TEs) last week.

The betting line with the Cowboys (5-4) has the game total at 48.5 points with the Lions (3-5-1) as +6.5 point home dogs. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Cowboys are currently at 27.5 points.

Minnesota TEs combined for a 9-48-2 receiving line on 12 targets at Dallas last week. The Cowboys’ defense ranks 30th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 31st over the past four weeks.

The status of QB Matthew Stafford is currently unknown, but either way, Hockenson has the best positional matchup against a Dallas defense that is weak against TEs. As Dallas ranks 2nd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, Hockenson could benefit against a TE-funnel defense, in an implied negative-script game.

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