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NFL Week 9: November 2 – 6, 2017

We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 9. With six teams on bye this week, the player pool be a little more scarce than usual.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Jared Goff (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Goff’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Goff recorded a 20/37, 235, 1:1 line and 2-13-1 on the ground against the Arizona before the bye.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 42 points with the Rams as -3.5 point home favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Giants are currently at 19.25 points.

Russell Wilson dropped a 27/39, 334, 3:0 line at New York before the Giants bye. New York ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 17th in DVOA against the pass. New York also ranks 27th in yards allowed with 360.6/gm and 27th in pass yards allowed with 258.7/gm. New York also ranks 27th (tied) in interceptions with 3 and 24th (tied) in sacks with 13. The Rams give up the 3rd (tied) fewest sacks with 10.

CB1 Janoris Jenkins has been suspended by the team this week for a rules violation, which is an added bonus for Goff. Goff’s salary is relatively cheap given the solid matchup.

Dak Prescott (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700, FanDuel (FD) – 8200. Prescott’s upcoming salary ranks him 4th on both DK/FD. Prescott recorded a 14/22, 143, 0:0 line and 3-16-0 on the ground in Washington last week.

The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 51.5 points (highest on the board) as a pick ’em game. The implied team totals for both teams is currently at 25.75 points.

Kansas City ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 20th in DVOA against the pass. Kansas City also ranks 28th in pass yards allowed with 261.1/gm.

Zeke Elliott’s six-game suspension begins this week with possibly some combination of Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden filling in for him. Dak ranks 1st (tied) for QBs in red zone rushing TDs with 3 and 2nd in red zone rushing yards with 37. Dak also ranks 6th in red zone passing TDs with 10.

Dak and the passing game have a good matchup, and he should be expected to shoulder the load in a possible shoot-scenario. With the loss of Elliott, Dak’s red zone rushing potential gets a bump up as he is a red zone dual-threat.
Update: Elliott’s suspension has been lifted for this week. Dak still makes for a solid play regardless, as this scenario provides the opportunity for Dak to take advantage of play-action plays.

Running Back

Adrian Peterson (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Peterson’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the 49ers has the game total at 39.5 points with the Cardinals as -2 point road favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points while the 49ers are currently at 18.75 points. The Cardinals are coming off their bye.

San Francisco ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 25th in DVOA against the run. San Francisco also ranks 29th in rush yards allowed with 131.8/gm and 31st in points allowed with 27.4/gm. Philadelphia RBs posted a combined rush line of 27-107-1 against San Francisco last week.

With Carson Palmer (broken arm) out on IR, Drew Stanton will now be under center. Coming in relief for Palmer in the first-half in week 7, Stanton ended up posting a line of 5/14, 66, 0:1, taking 2 sacks, for a 21.7 passer rating. In a positive implied game script with Stanton starting, this scenario should ensure volume for Peterson as the Cardinals look to ride him in workhorse fashion.

The matchup doesn’t get much better and Peterson should bring a solid floor this week.

Doug Martin (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Martin’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/12th on DK/FD, respectively. Martin posted a 18-71-0 line and 1-4-0 on 2 targets against Carolina last week.

The betting lines with the Saints has the game total at 50 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Bucs as +7 point road dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points while the Saints are currently at 28.5 points.

New Orleans ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 29th in DVOA against the run. Chicago backs combined for a 28-104-1 rush line at New Orleans last week.

New Orleans is stout against the pass as they rank 4th in DVOA against it. Their weakness is against the run. Jameis Winston (shoulder) is less than 100%, and Tampa Bay may need to lean on Martin for a heavier workload. Martin faces a negative implied game script, but if Tampa Bay can keep this game relatively close, Martin should offer a decent floor.

Lamar Miller (Hou) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Miller’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Miller posted a 21-54-1 line and 3-19-1 on 3 targets at Seattle last week. Miller’s fantasy points of 22.3/20.8 ranked him 5/4th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.

The betting lines with the Colts has the game total at 50 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Texans as -13 point (widest on the board) home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 31.5 points while the Colts are currently at 18.5 points.

The Colts rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 19th in DVOA against the run, and last in DVOA against RBs in the passing game. The Colts rank 31st in yards allowed with 406.8/gm and last in points allowed with 30.8/gm. Cincinnati backs combined for a 17-34-0 line and 3-91-0 on 5 targets against the Colts last week.

Miller ranks in the top ten for RBs in red zone TDs with 4. The Texans should be able to score however they so choose, and if this game gets out of hand early, Miller’s volume could get heavy to ice the game.
Update: Unfortunately, Deshaun Watson tore his ACL, suffering the non-contact injury during practice, and will be out for the season. Miller’s stock gets a considerable bump up.

Wide Receiver

Devin Funchess (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 6100. Funchess’ upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/27th on DK/FD, respectively. Funchess put up a line of 2-11-0 on 6 targets and comparatively, Kelvin Benjamin put up a line of 3-39-1 on 7 targets at Tampa Bay last week.

The betting lines with the Falcons has the game total at 43.5 points with the Panthers as -1.5 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points while the Falcons are currently at 21 points.

Atlanta ranks 12th against WRs in fantasy points allowed and 25th in DVOA against the pass. Josh McCown put up a 26/33, 257, 2:0 line against Atlanta last week.

Kelvin Benjamin was traded to Buffalo for 3rd and 7th round picks, leaving Funchess as the de facto WR1 in Carolina. Funchess had already led WRs on the team in targets (58), catches (33), and TDs (3) before Benjamin’s departure. Salaries were released before the trade deadline, so there is just an inherent built in value for Funchess as Benjamin’s salaries are 6200/6800, ranking him 14th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.

Funchess has averaged over 8 targets over his last six games and this should increase into the double-digit range.

Dez Bryant (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Bryant’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Bryant put up a line of 4-39-0 on 6 targets at Washington last week.

The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 51.5 points (highest on the board) as a pick ’em game. The implied team totals for both teams is currently at 25.75 points.

Kansas City ranks last against WRs in fantasy points allowed and 29th in DVOA against WR1s.

Dez leads all WRs in red zone targets with 14 and ranks 2nd (tied) in red zone receiving TDs with 4. With Zeke out, Dez is in a potential blowup scoring spot with a beautiful matchup. Dez should mostly lineup against Terrance Mitchell (5’11”, 192 lbs.), who is a size mismatch against the 6’2″, 220 lb. Bryant. Bryant’s targets should bump up as well. Dez makes a great stacking option with Dak this week.
Update: See Dak Prescott above, but same scenario applies.

Tight End

Jack Doyle (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Doyle’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Doyle put up a line of 12-121-1 on 14 targets (all team highs) at Cincinnati last week. Doyle’s fantasy points of 33.1/24.1 ranked him 1st on both DK/FD. Doyle’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK/FD as well.

The betting lines with the Texans has the game total at 50 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Colts as +13 point road dogs. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points while the Texans are currently at 31.5 points.

Houston ranks 27th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 8th in DVOA against TEs. Seattle TEs combined for a 5-47-2 line against Houston last week.

Doyle leads the Colts in targets, catches, and receiving TDs as he is Jacoby Brissett’s primary and most consistent target. Over the past three games, Doyle has averaged over 10 targets, 9 catches, 71.6 yards, and .67 TDs.

Doyle faces a negative implied game script which could lead to a high volume game, especially in garbage-time.

Tyler Kroft (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Kroft’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/12th on DK/FD, respectively. Kroft put up a line of 5-46-0 on 6 targets (targets and catches led the team) against the Colts last week. Kroft’s fantasy points of 9.6/7.1 ranked him 11th/13th on DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Jaguars has the game total at 39.5 points with the Bengals as +4.5 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 17.5 points while the Jaguars are currently at 22 points. The Jaguars are coming off their bye.

Jacksonville ranks 20th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 6th in DVOA against TEs. Colts TEs combined for an 8-57-0 lines against Jacksonville in week 7.

Jacksonville’s CBs present bad matchups for Cincinnati WRs, and along with a negative implied game script, this should create a scenario where targets are funneled to Kroft. Kroft and AJ Green are tied for the team lead in red zone receiving TDs with 3 apiece.

Jimmy Graham (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Graham’s upcoming salary ranks him 4th on both DK/FD. Graham put up a line of 4-39-2 on 5 targets against the Texans last week. Graham’s fantasy points of 19.9/17.9 ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD. Graham’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/3rd on DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Redskins has the game total at 45 points with the Seahawks as -7 point home favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 26 points while the Redskins are currently at 19 points.

Washington ranks 29th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 28th in DVOA against TEs.

Graham ranks 1st amongst TEs in red zone targets (13), 2nd (tied) in catches (7), and 2nd in TDs (4). Graham has come on strong the past three weeks as his four TDs on the year have come during this time frame. Graham gets a primo matchup and makes an excellent stacking option with Russell Wilson this week.


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