NFL Week 9 DFS Value Player Picks
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NFL Week 9: November 5 – 9, 2020

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 9.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.


Quarterback

Derek Carr (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7000 (11.7% of cap). Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Chargers (2-5) has the game total at 53 points (2nd highest on the board), with the Raiders (4-3) as +1.5 point road dogs. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Chargers are currently at 27.25 points.

Carr posted a 15/24, 112, 1:0 passing line and 6-41-0 on the ground at Cleveland (25th vs. QBs) last week.

Drew Lock put up a 26/41, 248, 3:1 passing line against the Chargers last week.

The Chargers’ defense ranks 29th against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 25th over the past four weeks. The Raiders’ offense ranks 12th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Chargers’ defense which ranks 20th.

The Cleveland wind game last week derailed any pass-game ceiling potential, but that won’t be the case indoors this week.

For a more expensive option in the same game…

Justin Herbert (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6800 (13.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7900 (13.2% of cap). Herbert’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line – See above.

Herbert recorded a 29/43, 278, 3:2 passing line and 3-21-0 on the ground at Denver (21st vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB5 finish.

Baker Mayfield recorded a 12/25, 122, 0:0 passing line against the Raiders last week.

The Raiders’ defense ranks 25th against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 29th over the past four weeks, despite Mayfield’s 7.78 score last week.

The Chargers’ offense ranks 13th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Raiders’ defense which ranks 29th.

This game should have an elevated pace factor, as both teams rank top 9 in play volume.

Herbert should operate in clean pockets and doesn’t have any adverse matchups to contend with.

Running Back

Justin Jackson (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.8% of cap). Jackson’s upcoming salary ranks him 26th/20th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line – See above.

Jackson posted a 17-89-0 rushing line and 3-53-0 on 5 targets with 41 snaps (47%) at Denver last week, good for the RB11 finish.

The Browns’ RBs combined for a 16-72-0 rushing line and 3-12-0 on 4 targets against the Raiders last week.

The Raiders’ DST ranks 28th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 7th over the past four weeks. The Chargers’ O-line ranks 23rd in adjusted line yards vs. the Raiders’ defense which ranks 29th.

RBs Troymaine Pope and Joshua Kelley combined for the remaining 53% of RB snaps.

Jackson’s cheap price tag comes with the opportunity cost of not having a true workhorse role.

David Johnson (Hou) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600 (11.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6800 (11.3% of cap). Johnson’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Jaguars (1-6) has the game total at 50.5 points with the Texans (1-6) as -7 point road favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 28.75 points and the Jaguars are currently at 21.75 points. Both teams are coming off their byes.

Johnson posted a 14-42-0 rushing line and 4-42-1 on 4 targets with 54 snaps (79%) against the Packers (last vs. RBs) in Week 7.

Chargers’ RBs put up an 18-47-0 rushing line, and 10-67-0 on 11 targets against the Jaguars in Week 7.

The Jaguars rank 27th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 25th over the past four weeks. The Texans’ offense ranks 27th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jaguars’ defense which ranks 12th.

Johnson has matchup, game-script, and possible weather conditions in his favor. Jacksonville is currently expected to see approximate 18 mph winds with 60% chance of rain.

Wide Receiver

Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 28th/24th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Vikings (2-5) has the game total at 52.5 points with the Lions (3-4) as +4 point road dogs. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Vikings are currently at 28.25 points.

Jones posted a 3-39-2 receiving line on 7 targets with 60 snaps (98%) against the Colts (16th vs. WRs) last week.

The Packers’ WRs combined for a 11-116-3 receiving line on 18 targets against the Vikings last week.

The Vikings’ defense ranks 30th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 27th over the past four weeks.

With WR1 Kenny Golladay (hip) already ruled out, Jones gets a potential volume bump, with a good matchup.

UPDATE:
QB Matthew Stafford has been placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and his playing status is uncertain.

Brandin Cooks (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Cooks upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/24th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Jaguars (1-6) has the game total at 50.5 points with the Texans (1-6) as -7 point road favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 28.75 points and the Jaguars are currently at 21.75 points.

Cooks posted a 7-60-0 receiving line on 9 targets with 55 snaps (81%) against the Packers (7th vs. WRs) in Week 7.

Chargers’ WRs combined for a 13-213-1 receiving line on 20 targets against the Jaguars in Week 7.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks 18th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 24th over the past four weeks.

Cooks has averaged 10 targets, 8 catches, and 96.3 yards over his past three games. Cooks also dropped 33.1 fantasy points on the Jaguars in Week 5.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100 (8.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Hurst’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Broncos (3-4) has the game total at 50 points with the Falcons (2-6) as -4 point home favorites. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Broncos are currently at 23 points.

Hurst posted a 5-54-0 receiving line on 7 targets with 56 snaps (80%) at Carolina (9th vs. TEs) last week.

Hunter Henry logged a 4-33-0 receiving line on 4 targets at Denver last week.

The Broncos’ defense ranks 12th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 5th over the past four weeks.

WR Calvin Ridley (foot) is at risk of being held out through the team’s Week 10 bye. Be that the case, missing the Falcons’ leader in targets, catches, yards, and receiving TDs will boost opportunities for the other options on the field.