NFL Week 9 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 9: November 1 – 5, 2018
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our value DFS defense picks for week 9.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Denver Broncos – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2300, FanDuel (FD) – 3400. The Broncos’ salary ranks them 15th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Texans has the game total at 46 as a pick ‘em in Denver. The implied team total for both teams is currently at 23 points.
Against the Texans last week, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 42 points, finishing with -4 fantasy points. The Texans give up the 17th most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and gives up the 4th (tied) most sacks with 26. The Texans’ O-line ranks 29th league-wide in adjusted sack rate.
The Broncos’ defense ranks 2nd (tied) in sacks with 24 and 4th in QB hits with 53. The Broncos’ defense also ranks 6th in fantasy points/gm. The Broncos logged 2 sacks and a pick at Kansas City last week.
The Broncos will not have to contend with WR Will Fuller (ACL) but Houston added former Bronco Demaryius Thomas prior to the trade deadline. Thomas doesn’t profile as a lid-lifting Fuller type, but more so hurts the role of Keke Coutee. Thomas should see a few snaps this week.
So the positive matchup here for the Broncos is a good pass rush against one of the worst O-lines and Deshaun Watson’s longest time-to-throw among active starters at 3.14 seconds. The Broncos are a cheap play with a plausible pathway to score points.
New York Jets – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500, FanDuel (FD) – 3700. The Jets’ salary ranks them 10th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Dolphins has the game total at 45 points with the Jets as +3 point road dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Jets are currently at 21 points.
The Dolphins give up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing defenses while the Jets’ defense ranks 8th in fantasy points/gm. Against the Dolphins last week, the Texans’ defense logged 2 sacks and a pick.
The Jets’ defense ranks 5th (tied) in interceptions with 22, 5th in QB hits with 52, but oddly, only 23rd in sacks with 17. The Jets’ defense recorded 2 sacks at Chicago last week. The Jets’ defense scored 9 fantasy points against Miami in their week 2 meeting when Ryan Tannehill was under center.
This matchup just boils down to an unspectacular offense vs. a ho-hum defense. Considering the matchups this week, a cheap defense vs. a Brock Osweiler led unit seems doable.
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 3900. The Chiefs’ salary ranks them 7th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Browns has the game total at 51 points with the Chiefs as -8.5 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Chiefs are currently at 29.75 points.
The Browns’ offense allows a league worst 33 sacks while the Chiefs’ defense ranks 2nd (tied) in sacks with 24. The Browns give up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Steelers’ defense recorded 2 sacks, a pick, a safety, and held the Browns to 18 points last week.
The Chiefs’ defense logged 5 sacks, a pick, and a fumble recovery against Denver last week.
The Browns management finally went scorched-earth and fired both Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley. RB coach Freddie Kitchens takes over as the OC and DC Greg Williams will be the interim coach. Upon this news, the spread on Kansas City dropped a half a point and the game total dropped one point. Both line movements favor Kansas City.
Kitchens, having spent time with Bruce Arians during the Carson Palmer days, should be a rest-of-season upgrade over arguably the worst coach in NFL history and the incompetent Haley. Although this apparent upgrade cannot possibly be any worse than the previous dysfunction, in the land of drama and chaos, this should be a week for the Chiefs to take advantage and eat.
Chicago Bears – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. The Bears’ salary ranks them 1st on both DK/FD.
The betting line with the Bills has the game total at 37.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Bears as -10 point road favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 13.75 points and the Bears are currently at 23.75 points. Fresh-off-the-golf-course backup Derek Anderson (concussion) has been ruled out and third-string QB Nathan “Pick-Six” Peterman is expected to start. Upon this news, the spread on Chicago dropped an additional 1.5 points.
Rather than unnecessarily going into Buffalo’s offensive stats, where they rank last or near it in every conceivable metric, to summarize, through eight weeks, this is one of the worst offenses in NFL history. And Pick-Six Peterman had participated in just over 48 minutes during this span. He may actually get a full 60 minutes this week.
In those approximate 48 minutes, Peterman has logged a line of 13/32 (40.6%), 108 yards (3.4 avg.), TD:INT of 1:4 with one of those four going for a pick-six, taking 3 sacks, for a passer rating of 20.8. Wow…
Buffalo has allowed fantasy points to opposing defenses as follows:
– Double-digit fantasy points in 6 of 8 games.
– At least 17 fantasy points in 5 of 8 games.
– At least 20 fantasy points in 3 of 8 games.
LB Khalil Mack (ankle) ended up on the wrong side of a game-time decision last week. He is expected to return this week.
Chicago’s defense enters this week as the #2 scoring defense at 10.1/gm. They should exit it at #1.
Mack is listed as questionable and it looks like he’ll be a GTD. It would make sense for McDermott to hold him back in a week where they won’t need him to win this game.