NFL Week 9 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 9: October 31 – November 4, 2019
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 9.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Carolina Panthers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800 (5.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4000 (6.67% of cap). The Panthers’ salary ranks them 9th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Titans (4-4) has the game total at 41.5 points with the Panthers (4-3) as -4 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Titans are currently at 18.75 points.
At San Francisco last week, the Panthers’ defense logged 3 sacks, 1 pick, 1 safety, and allowed 51 points to the 49ers. At Tennessee last week, the Bucs’ defense recorded 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and allowed 27 points.
Tennessee gives up the most (tied) sacks with 34 while Carolina’s defense ranks 2nd in sacks with 30 and interceptions (tied) with 10. Carolina also ranks 4th in QB hits with 54. The pass-game matchup sets up nicely for the Panthers’ defense this week.
Denver Broncos – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900 (5.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4300 (7.17% of cap). The Broncos’ salary ranks them 7th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Browns (2-5) has the game total at 39 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos (2-6) as +3 point home dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 18 points and the Browns are currently at 21 points.
At Indianapolis last week, the Broncos’ defense logged 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and held the Colts to 15 points, good for 7 fantasy points. Against Cleveland last week, the Patriots’ defense recorded 5 sacks, 1 pick, 2 fumble recoveries with one returned for a TD, and held the Browns to 13 points, good for a DST1 finish.
The Browns toss up the most picks (tied) with 12, give up the 11th most sacks with 21, and allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Browns’ O-line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Bronco’s D-line which ranks 16th.
The Broncos’ defense averaged 10.75 fantasy points over their past four games, and this week’s matchup will be their easiest one during this span.
Cleveland Browns – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4300 (7.17% of cap). The Browns’ salary ranks them 5th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
At New England last week, the Browns’ defense logged 3 sacks, 1 blocked kick, and gave up 21 offensive points. The Colts’ defense registered 3 sacks and held the Broncos to 13 points last week.
The Broncos give up the 5th (tied) most sacks with 27, and the 10th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Denver’s O-line ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Browns’ D-line which ranks 6th.
With QB Joe Flacco (neck) set to miss multiple weeks, Brandon Allen will start in his stead. Allen, a 2016 6th round pick by Jacksonville, will be taking his first snap in the NFL. Good luck with that.
Philadelphia Eagles – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.67% of cap). The Eagles’ salary ranks them 6th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Bears (3-4) has the game total at 43 points with the Eagles (4-4) as -5 point home favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Bears are currently at 19 points.
At Buffalo last week, the Eagles’ defense logged 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 blocked kick, and allowed 20 points. At Chicago last week, the Chargers’ defense logged 4 sacks, 1 pick, 1 recovered fumble, and held the Bears to 16 points, good for 9 fantasy points and a DST9 finish.
The Bears rank 18th in fantasy points given up to defenses. The Eagles’ defense ranks 3rd in QB hits with 56, 14th in sacks with 21, and 5th (tied) in interceptions with 8. The Eagles rank 6th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and DVOA rush defense vs. a Bears offense which ranks 26th in DVOA overall.
The implied negative-script for the Bears and the bad rushing matchup for them as well, should leave Mitch Trubisky in a scenario where he’ll need to throw. This should lead to very good treats for the Eagles defenseLast updated: October 30, 2019 at 10:33 am