NFL Week 9: November 2 – 6, 2017
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 9.
Salary ranks are based on the full slate.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Buffalo Bills – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. Buffalo’s salary ranks them 10th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Jets has the game total at 43 points with the Bills as -3 point road favorites on Thursday night. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the Jets are currently at 20 points.
The Bills logged 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, a touchdown, and held the Raiders to 14 points last week. Buffalo ranks 1st (tied) in takeaways with 17. Buffalo ranks 4th against QBs, 7th against RBs, and 10th against WRs in fantasy points allowed.
Atlanta registered 3 sacks and a fumble recovery at New York last week. The Jets rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to defenses, allow the 4th (tied) most sacks with 25, and rank 5th (tied) in most giveaways with 14.
Buffalo has a solid matchup and is one of the better priced values in this tier this week.
Philadelphia Eagles – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Philadelphia’s salary ranks them 7th/3nd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting lines with the Broncos has the game total at 44 points with the Eagles as -8 point home favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Broncos are currently at 18 points.
The Eagles recorded 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, a TD, a blocked kick, and held the 49ers to 10 points last week. The Eagles rank 9th (tied) in sacks with 22 and 5th in takeaways with 14.
Kansas City logged 3 sacks, 3 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, and a TD against Denver last week. Denver ranks 31st against defenses in fantasy points allowed. Denver also allows the 4th (tied) most sacks with 25 and cough up the 2nd most giveaways with 17.
Vance Joseph has been noncommittal on this week’s starting QB. If Trevor Siemian gets benched or pulled, Brock Osweiler would be next up as Paxton Lynch (shoulder) is out. The Eagles are a lock and load play this week.
Update: Joseph announced that Osweiler will start this week.
Los Angeles Rams – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. Los Angeles’ salary ranks them 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 42 points with the Rams as -3.5 point road favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 19.25 points and the Rams are currently at 22.75 points. The Rams and Giants are coming off their bye.
The Rams rank 7th (tied) in sacks with 23 and 10th (tied) in takeaways. The Rams also rank in the top ten against QBs, WRs, and TEs in fantasy points allowed.
The Giants rank 18th against defenses in fantasy points allowed, 27th in yards with 296.4/gm, and 30th in points scored with 16/gm. The Rams weakness on defense is against the run, but New York can’t run anyway, as they rank 27th in rush yards with a measly 83.3/gm and the offensive line checks in at dead last in DVOA rushing power rank.
The matchup is great for Los Angeles and their price tag is very reasonable.
Detroit Lions – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Detroit’s salary ranks them 13th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Packers has the game total at 43 points with the Lions as -2.5 point road favorites. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Packers are currently at 20.25 points. Green Bay is coming off their bye.
Detroit recorded an interception, a fumble recovery, and held Pittsburgh to 20 points last week. Detroit ranks 3rd (tied) in takeaways with 16 and 4th in fantasy points scored per game. Detroit also ranks 2nd in defensive TDs scored with four.
Green Bay currently ranks 19th against defenses in fantasy points allowed, but that ranking includes five games with Aaron Rodgers under center. Green Bay also gives up the 7th (tied) most sacks with 24.
In primarily two games this season, Brett Hundley registers a 52.5 completion ratio, averaging 72 passing yards/gm, with a 1:4 TD ratio, and has taken 5 sacks, for a passer rating of 40.5. Ouch. Hundley had the extra week to prep himself, but if the implied game script holds, he may be forced to do more than Mike McCarthy would care for.