NFL Week 9 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 9: November 5 – 9, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 9.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines and weather projections are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Defense
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900 (5.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4300 (7.2% of cap). The Cardinals’ salary ranks them 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Dolphins (4-3) has the game total at 48 points, with the Cardinals (5-2) as -4.5 point home favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and the Dolphins are currently at 19.75 points. The Cardinals are coming off their bye.
The Cardinals’ defense registered 2 sacks, 3 interceptions, and gave up 34 offensive points to the Seahawks in Week 7.
The Rams’ defense logged 1 sack, 2 fumble recoveries, and allowed 16 offensive points at Miami last week.
The Cardinals’ defense ranks 21st in adjusted sack rate vs. a Dolphins’ offense which ranks 15th. The Cardinals’ defense ranks 9th (tied) in QB hits (47) and 13th in pressure rate (23.5%). The Cardinals’ DST also ranks 10th in fantasy points scored (7.0/gm.)
The Dolphins rank 8th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed. QB Tua Tagovailoa will likely be in a scenario where pass attempts exceed rush attempts, unlike last week’s fortunate turn of events against the Rams.
Washington Football Team – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4700 (7.8% of cap). Washington’s salary ranks them 4th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Giants (1-6) has the game total at 43 points, with Washington (2-5) as -3.5 point home favs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Giants are currently at 19.75 points. Washington is coming off their bye.
Washington’s defense registered 6 sacks, 1 interception, and gave up 3 offensive points to the Cowboys in Week 7.
The Bucs’ defense logged 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, and gave up 23 offensive points to the Giants last week.
Washington’s defense ranks 2nd in adjusted sack rate vs. a Giants’ offense which ranks 16th. They also rank 8th in pressure rate (24.8%) vs. a Giants’ offense which allows the 5th highest pressure rate (25.6%).
The Giants rank 28th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed. They also hand over the 3rd (tied) most turnovers (15). QB Daniel Jones accounts for 13 of these himself.
And in the same game…
New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4100 (6.8% of cap). The Giants’ salary ranks them 13th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Giants’ defense logged 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 25 offensive points to the Bucs last week.
The Cowboys registered 2 sacks, and gave up 23 offensive points to Washington in Week 7.
The Giants’ defense ranks 13th in adjusted sack rate vs. Washington’s offense which ranks 31st. The Giants’ defense also ranks 5th in QB hits (52) and 7th in pressure rate (25.2%) vs. a Washington offense which allows the 10th highest pressure rate (22.7%).
Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses.
The Giants’ defense put up 14 fantasy points on Washington in Week 6.
Houston Texans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3700 (6.2% of cap). The Texans’ salary ranks them 7th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Jaguars (1-6) has the game total at 51.5 points with the Texans (1-6) as -6.5 point road favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 29 points and the Jaguars are currently at 22.5 points. Both teams are coming off their byes.
The Texans’ defense blocked a kick and gave up 35 offensive points to the Packers in Week 7.
The Chargers registered 5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 29 offensive points against the Jags in Week 7.
The Texans’ defense ranks 11 in adjusted sack rate vs. the Jaguars’ offense which ranks last. The Jaguars’ offense allows the 11th highest pressure rate (21.9%) vs. the Texans’ DST which ranks 28th (18.7%).
The Jaguars rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. With QB Gardner Minshew (thumb) ruled out, 6th round rookie Jake Luton will make his NFL debut. The Texans’ DST have an opportunity to take advantage in what should be a pass-heavy script for the rookie.
UPDATE:
The Texans will be without three LBs as Whitney Mercilus, Jacob Martin, and Dylan Cole were all placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
