NFL Week 8 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 8 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 8: October 24 – 28, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 8.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (12 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 8 Byes – Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100 (10.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6900 (11.5% of cap). Tannehill’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Tannehill posted a 23/39, 312, 2:1 aerial line and 5-7-0 on the ground against the Chargers (7th vs. QBs) last week. Tannehill’s fantasy points of 23.18/20.18 ranked him 8th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Tannehill’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bucs (2-4) has the game total at 45.5 points with the Titans (3-4) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Bucs are currently at 21.5 points. Tampa Bay is coming off their bye.

Kyle Allen logged a 20/32, 227, 2:0 passing line at Tampa Bay in week 6.

The Bucs’ defense ranks 27th vs. QBs, 31st vs. WRs, and 31st vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. The Bucs also rank last in pass yards allowed with 304.5 yards/gm and 30th in points allowed/gm with 30.8.

The Titans will look to run in this one as much as possible, but the Titans’ fate should ultimately land in the hands of Tannehill, as Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 3rd in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 1st in DVOA rush defense, and 1st in D-line adjusted line yards.

Tannehill exceeded expectations against a tough Chargers pass-defense last week, and then gets one of the easiest matchups for QBs for a cheap price.

Matthew Stafford (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.83% of cap). Stafford’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.

Stafford posted a 30/45, 364, 4:1 aerial line against the Vikings (17th vs. QBs) last week. Stafford’s fantasy points of 32.56/29.56 ranked him 2nd/2nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Stafford’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/2nd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Giants (2-5) has the game total at 49 points with the Lions (2-3-1) as -7 point home favorites. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 28 points and the Giants are currently at 21 points.

Kyler Murray put up a 14/21, 104, 0:0 passing line and 10-28-0 on the ground at the Giants last week.

The Giants’ defense ranks 23rd vs. QBs and 26th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. They also rank 27th in DVOA pass defense.

RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) has been placed on IR, currently leaving Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic to fill. Stafford’s pass attempts should take an uptick as well, since both Ty and J.D. are capable receiver-types out of the backfield. Stafford should be busy with a solid matchup, especially at home where he averages over 6 more fantasy points compared to road games.

Running Back

Ty Johnson (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5200 (8.67% of cap). Johnson’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/41st on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD.

Johnson posted a 10-29-0 rush line and 4-28-0 on 4 targets with 49 snaps (64%) against the Vikings (5th vs. RBs).

Chase Edmonds logged a 27-126-3 rushing line and 2-24-0 on 4 targets at the New York Giants last week.

The Giants’ defense ranks 28th against RBs in fantasy points allowed. Detroit’s O-line ranks 14th in adjusted line yards while the Giants’ D-line ranks 17th.

With Kerryon Johnson (knee) leaving the game early last week, Ty Johnson’s snap count spiked upward vs. J.D. McKissic (64% vs. 25%) and out-touched him 2 to 1 (14 vs. 7) as well. Both backs should see snaps, but if this ratio were to hold, Ty Johnson provides for a nice value in an RB friendly matchup.

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300 (10.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). Sutton’s upcoming salary ranks him 27th/27th on DK/FD, respectively.

Sutton posted a 6-87-0 line on 8 targets with 64 snaps (96%) against the Chiefs (10th vs. WRs) last week, leading the team in all categories.

The betting line with the Colts (4-2) has the game total at 43.5 points with the Broncos (2-5) as +6 point road dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 18.75 points and the Colts are currently at 24.75 points.

Houston WRs combined for a 17-242-1 receiving line on 23 targets at Indianapolis last week. Indianapolis ranks 23rd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 18th in DVOA pass defense.

With WR Emmanuel Sanders traded to San Francisco this week, this move frees up Sanders’ 19.1% target-share, 19.9% reception-share, and his 77.2% snap-share.

DaeSean Hamilton will see a spiked increase in snaps, but Sutton will be tasked to carry the load through the air.

Corey Davis (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400 (8.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5500 (9.17% of cap). Davis’ upcoming salary ranks him 42nd/42nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Davis posted a 6-80-1 receiving line on 7 targets, with 48 snaps (75%) against the Chargers (12th vs. WRs) last week. Davis’ fantasy points of 20/17 ranked him 11th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Davis’ price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bucs (2-4) has the game total at 45.5 points with the Titans (3-4) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Bucs are currently at 21.5 points. Tampa Bay is coming off their bye.

Carolina WRs combined for a 12-149-1 line on 19 targets at Tampa Bay in week 6.

Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 31st vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 25th in DVOA pass defense. With improved QB play with the switch to Ryan Tannehill, Davis offers solid value with a great matchup.

Tight End

Hunter Henry (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6700 (11.17% of cap). Henry’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

Henry posted an 6-97-0 line on 8 targets with 58 snaps (91%) at Tennessee (24th vs. TEs) last week. Henry’s fantasy points of 15.7/12.7 ranked him 6th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bears (3-3) has the game total at 41 points with the Chargers (2-5) as +4 point road dogs. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points and the Titans are currently at 22.5 points.

Josh Hill posted a 3-43-1 line on 3 targets at Chicago last week. The Bears’ defense ranks 21st against TEs in fantasy points allowed.

Since Henry’s return two games ago, he has led the team in catches with 14, receiving yards with 197, and TDs with 2. Henry’s matchup is relatively better than vs. WRs where the Bears rank top-8. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it…and right now, Henry ain’t broke.

Jonnu Smith (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800 (5.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4900 (8.17% of cap). Smith’s upcoming salary ranks him 29th/20th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

Smith posted a 3-64-0 line on 3 targets with 53 snaps (83%) against the Chargers (13th vs. TEs) last week. Smith’s fantasy points of 9.4/7.9 ranked him 14th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Greg Olsen posted a 4-52-0 line on 7 targets at Tampa Bay in week 6. The Bucs’ defense ranks 31st against TEs in fantasy points allowed.

Smith gets a great matchup with a salary saving price, but this play is contingent that Delanie Walker (ankle) misses again this week.

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