NFL Week 8: October 29 – November 2, 2020
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 8.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200 (12.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7600 (11.7% of cap). Burrow’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Titans (5-1) has the game total at 53.5 points with the Bengals (1-5) as +5.5 point home dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Titans are currently at 29.5 points.
Burrow recorded a 35/47, 406, 3:1 passing line and 6-34-1 on the ground with a lost fumble against the Browns (25th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB4 finish.
Ben Roethlisberger recorded a 32/49, 268, 2:3 passing line at Tennessee last week.
The Titans’ defense ranks 23rd against QBs in fantasy points allowed. The Titans’ defense also ranks 26th in passing yards allowed (272/gm).
The Bengals’ offense ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Titans’ defense which ranks last. However, LT Jonah Williams (neck) and C Trey Hopkins (concussion) are at risk of missing this week, further hampering the Bengals’ league-worst O-line.
This game should have an elevated pace factor, as both teams rank top-10 in play volume.
Burrow has exceeded 300+ passing yards in 5 of 7 games. This trend is likely to continue again this week.
Derek Carr (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (12.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7300 (12.2% of cap). Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Browns (5-2) has the game total at 52.5 points, with the Raiders (3-3) as +2.5 point road dogs. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Browns are currently at 27.5 points.
Carr posted a 24/36, 284, 2:1 passing line and 2-19-0 on the ground against the Bucs (3rd vs. QBs) last week.
The Browns’ defense ranks 25th against QBs in fantasy points allowed. The Browns’ defense also ranks 30th in passing yards allowed (288.1/gm), and 29th in points allowed (31.6/gm.).
The Raiders’ offense ranks 13th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Browns’ defense which ranks 19th.
Cleveland weather currently projects for 20-30 mph winds with a 60% chance of rain.
Carr has averaged 24.23 DK points over his past three games against tougher competition in Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Buffalo, than he’ll face this week. Carr won’t deliver a ceiling game, but at his cheap DK cost, a possible 24 point fantasy score will get the job done.
Running Back
Myles Gaskin (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Gaskin’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/28th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Rams (5-2) has the game total at 46 points with the Dolphins (3-3) as +4 point home dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Rams are currently at 25 points. The Dolphins are coming off their bye.
Gaskin posted a 18-91-0 rushing line and 4-35-0 on 4 targets with 39 snaps (70%) against the Jets (26th vs. RBs) in Week 6.
David Montgomery put up a 14-48-0 rushing line, and 5-21-0 on 5 targets at the Rams last week.
The Rams rank 9th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Dolphins’ offense ranks 26th in adjusted line yards vs. the Rams’ defense which ranks 28th.
Gaskin ranks 2nd on the team in catches and 3rd in targets. Gaskin makes for a cheap, volume-based play, regardless of game-script.
Le’Veon Bell (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600 (9.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). Bell’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/21st on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Jets (0-7) has the game total at 49 points with the Chiefs (6-1) as massive -19.5 point home favorites. The Chiefs’ implied team total is currently at 34.25 points (highest on the board) and the Jets are currently at 14.75 points (lowest).
Bell posted a 6-39-0 rushing line with 17 snaps (33%) at Denver last week, in his first game as a Chief.
The Bills’ RBs combined for a 15-76-0 rushing line and 5-43-0 on 8 targets against the Jets last week.
The Jets rank 26th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Chiefs’ O-line ranks 8th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jets’ defense which ranks 22nd.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s snap count was at 27 (53%) last week. CEH out-touched Bell 9 to 6 last week as well. KC is headed towards a split-backfield workload, with Bell the likely bet for goal-line work.
With a major likelihood of garbage-time play, and Bell’s well-known narrative against Adam Gase, Bell’s chances of involvement/scoring look pretty solid.
Wide Receiver
Rashard Higgins (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5500 (9.2% of cap). Higgins’ upcoming salary ranks him 47th/34th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Raiders (3-3) has the game total at 52.5 points with the Browns (5-2) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Raiders are currently at 25 points.
Higgins posted a 6-110-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 44 snaps (85%) at Cincinnati (16th vs. WRs) last week. Higgins’ snaps, targets (tied), catches, and yards led the team.
The Bucs’ WRs combined for a 19-238-3 receiving line on 22 targets at Las Vegas last week.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 23rd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 31st over the past four weeks.
With WR1 Odell Beckham Jr. (ACL) now out for the season, Higgins gets an opportunity bump, with a good matchup, for a cheap price.
A.J. Green (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.7% of cap). Green’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/27th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Titans (5-1) has the game total at 53.5 points with the Bengals (1-5) as +5.5 point home dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Titans are currently at 29.5 points.
Green posted a 7-82-0 receiving line on 13 targets with 65 snaps (87%) against the Browns (31st vs. WRs) last week.
Bengals’ WRs combined for a 25-308-2 receiving line on 34 targets against the Browns last week.
The Titans’ defense ranks 29th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 24th over the past four weeks.
Green has averaged 12 targets, 7.5 catches, and 89 yards over his past two games, and has seemingly returned from the fantasy graveyard. Green is the team’s cheapest WR play, and with Joe Burrow putting up league high attempts (41.9/gm) and completions (27.9/gm), there should be enough volume to give all three WRs upside.
Tight End
Harrison Bryant (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200 (6.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Bryant’s upcoming salary ranks him 26th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Raiders (3-3) has the game total at 52.5 points with the Browns (5-2) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Raiders are currently at 25 points.
Bryant posted a 4-56-2 receiving line on 5 targets with 40 snaps (77%) at Cincinnati (30th vs. TEs) last week, good for the TE1 finish.
The Bucs’ TEs combined for a 7-82-1 receiving line on 10 targets at Las Vegas last week.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 14th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and last over the past four weeks.
With Austin Hooper (appendectomy) unlikely to go this week, Bryant is expected to lead the Browns’ TE unit in production.
