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NFL Week 7: October 19 – 23, 2017

We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 7.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6500, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 10th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Cousins recorded a 25/37, 330, 2:1 line and 4-26-1 on the ground against the 49ers last week. Cousins’ fantasy points of 31.8/28.8 ranked him 1st for QBs on both DK/FD. Cousins’ price per point efficiency also ranked him 3rd/2nd on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Eagles has the game total at 48.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Redskins as +4.5 point road dogs. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 22 points while the Eagles are currently at 26.5 points.

Cam Newton registered a 28/52, 239, 1:3 line and 11-71-1 on the ground for 23.66 fantasy points against the Eagles last week. Philadelphia ranks 22nd DVP against QBs and 13th DVOA against the pass. Along with a negative implied game script, the Eagles rank 3rd in DVP against RBs and 9th in DVOA against the run, setting up Cousins for a busy Monday night.

Marcus Mariota (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6900, FanDuel (FD) – 8200. Mariota’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th on both DK/FD. Mariota recorded a 23/32, 306, 1:1 line against the Colts last week. Mariota’s fantasy points of 18.24/15.24 ranked him 10th/11th for QBs on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 46.5 points with the Titans as -5.5 point road favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 26 points while the Browns are currently at 20.5 points.

Deshaun Watson put up a line of 17/29, 225, 3:1 for 24.3 fantasy points against Cleveland last week. Cleveland ranks 31st in DVP against QBs and last in DVOA against the pass. Cleveland also ranks 27th in points allowed at 26.2.

Mariota omitted his run game from the game plan against the Colts, and it appears his hamstring did not suffer any setbacks. Mariota has a great matchup and brings a solid floor this week.
Update: Delanie Walker (calf) and DeMarco Murray (hamstring) are now questionable after Walker missed Friday’s practice and Murray put in a limited Friday session. They may end up being GTDs on Sunday. CB Jason McCourty (ankle) sat out Friday’s session as well and is currently questionable.

Dak Prescott (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7300, FanDuel (FD) – 8400. Prescott’s upcoming salary ranks him 4th on both DK/FD. Prescott is coming off a bye. Prescott’s week 5 line checked in at 25/36, 251, 3:1 with 4-37-1 on the ground against Green Bay. Prescott’s fantasy points of 30.74 ranked him 3rd/2nd for QBs on DK/FD in week 5.

The betting lines with the 49ers has the game total at 47 points with the Cowboys as -6 point road favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 26.5 points while the 49ers are currently at 20.5 points.

San Francisco ranks 26th DVP against QBs and DVOA against the pass, 27th in pass yards allowed (262.3), and 23rd in points allowed (24.3). As previously noted, Cousins shredded San Francisco last week.

As of now, Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension will begin this week, so Dak should shoulder a bigger load than usual. Dak is currently the 4th ranked fantasy QB in points/gm avg.
UPDATE: Zeke has received his injunction and will be eligible to play for the next two weeks at this moment.

Running Back

Adrian Peterson (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Peterson’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. Peterson put up a line of 26-134-2 on the ground against Tampa Bay last week. Peterson’s fantasy points of 28.4/25.4 ranked him 4th on both DK/FD for the position. Peterson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Rams has the game total at 47.5 points with the Cardinals as +3.5 point “road” dogs in London. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 22 points while the Rams are currently at 25.5 points.

Jacksonville RBs posted a combined ground line of 23-133-1 against Los Angeles last week. The Rams rank dead-last in DVP against RBs, 22nd in DVOA against the run, and 29th in rush yards allowed (139.5/gm).

Peterson’s new change of scenery altered the one-dimensional dynamic of the Arizona offense last week. The negative implied game script could be a problem for Peterson if the Cardinals go down big early, as Andre Ellington should control passing down work. Outside of this scenario, Peterson should show well for a second consecutive week behind an O-Line that is decent in run-blocking.

Jay Ajayi (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Ajayi’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Ajayi put up a line of 26-130-0 at Atlanta last week. Ajayi’s fantasy points of 16/13 ranked him 16th/17th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Jets has the game total at 38.5 points with the Dolphins as -3 point home favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points while the Jets are currently at 17.75 points.

New England RBs combined for a 24-119-1 line with a lost fumble and 4-22-0 in the air at New York last week. The Jets rank 29th in DVP against RBs and 25th in DVOA against the rush.

In Miami’s three wins on the season, Ajayi had at least 25 carries. With a positive implied game script against a Jets team that struggle against the run, expect Gase to have Ajayi take control away from Jay Cutler. Ajayi hasn’t yet scored this season so positive regression going into week 7 has him more than due.

Wide Receiver

Nelson Agholor (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Agholor’s upcoming salary ranks him 35th/36th on DK/FD, respectively. Agholor put up a line of 4-55-1 on 7 targets at Carolina last week. Agholor’s fantasy points of 15.5/13.5 ranked him 14th/16th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Redskins has the game total at 48.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Eagles as -4.5 point home favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 26.5 points while the Redskins are currently at 22 points.

Washington ranks 4th in DVP against WRs and 10th in DVOA against the pass. Currently, CBs Josh Norman (ribs, lung) and Bashaud Breeland (MCL) are iffy going into week 7. If Norman does return, he would mostly be Alshon Jeffery’s problem. RT Lane Johnson has cleared the concussion protocol and projects to return on Monday night.

Agholor posted a 6-86-1 line on 8 targets against Washington in week 1 when his snap rate was 62%. His snap rate was 77% in week 6.

Robert Woods (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Woods’ upcoming salary ranks him 60th/47th on DK/FD, respectively. Woods put up a line of 5-70-0 on 7 targets with a lost fumble at Jacksonville last week. Woods’ fantasy points of 11/7.5 ranked him 35th/40th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Cardinals has the game total at 47.5 points with the Rams as -3.5 point “home” favorites in London. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 25.5 points while the Cardinals are currently at 22 points.

Arizona ranks 29th in DVP against WRs and 24th DVOA against the pass. Woods leads all Ram WRs in targets, catches, and yards, although he has yet to score. However, of the three Ram WRs that see any meaningful time, he is the cheapest priced of them all. With Patrick Peterson likely on Sammy Watkins, Woods may see a lot of Justin Bethel, who has been getting flamed all season. LA’s Boy Wonder surely knows this as well. Woods is a super cheap option with a great matchup worth a flier.
Update: It appears Arians is benching Bethel for 34 year old Tramon Williams. Williams is hardly an upgrade and thus changes nothing in a still Arizona weak spot.

Tight End

Evan Engram (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Engram’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th on both DK/FD. Engram put up a line of 5-82-1 on 7 targets (all team-highs by a large margin) at Denver last week. Engram’s fantasy points of 19.2/16.7 ranked him 3rd/2nd on DK/FD for the position. Engram’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Seahawks has the game total at 40 points with the Giants as +5.5 point home dogs. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 17.25 points while the Seahawks are currently at 22.75 points. Seattle is coming off a bye.

Rams’ TEs combined for a 5-106-0 line on 11 targets against Seattle in week 5. Seattle ranks 14th in DVP against TEs and 8th in DVOA against the TEs.

Expect Engram to be heavily targeted by Eli, as the Giants should be in negative game script and he’s the only viable receiving talent New York has.

Hunter Henry (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Henry’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Henry put up a line of 5-90-0 on 7 targets at Oakland last week. Henry’s fantasy points of 14/11.5 ranked him 6th on both DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Broncos has the game total at 41.5 points with the Chargers as -1.5 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points while the Broncos are currently at 20 points.

Denver ranks 27th in DVP against TEs and 18th in DVOA against the pass. As previously noted, Evan Engram produced well against the Broncos last week.

The TE torch has been passed as Henry’s snap rate has increased yet again has he led Los Angeles TEs at 83%. Henry out-targeted Antonio Gates 7 to 1 last week. Henry’s involvement in the offense should continue to increase this week as this move is paying off for the Chargers.

Kyle Rudolph (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Rudolph’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/12th on DK/FD, respectively. Rudolph put up a line of 5-47-0 on 9 targets (2nd on team) against Green Bay last week. Rudolph’s fantasy points of 9.7/7.2 ranked him 16th/17th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Ravens has the game total at 40 points with the Vikings as -5.5 point home favorites. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points while the Ravens are currently at 17.25 points.

Chicago TEs combined for a 4-67-2 line on 7 targets from a total of just 17 pass attempts. Baltimore ranks 30th in DVP against TEs and last in DVOA against TEs.

The status of Stephon Diggs (groin) is currently unknown, however, Rudolph has seen 9 targets (season highs) in consecutive weeks and his heavy involvement should continue with a great matchup.


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