NFL Week 7: October 22 – 26, 2020
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 7.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400 (12.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Herbert’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Jaguars has the game total at 49 points, with the Chargers as -8 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 28.5 points and the Jaguars are currently at 20.5 points. The Chargers are coming off their bye.
Herbert posted a 20/34, 264, 4:0 passing line and 4-8-0 on the ground at New Orleans (29th vs. QBs) in Week 5.
Matthew Stafford recorded a 19/31, 223, 1:1 passing line and 5-14-0 on the ground at Jacksonville last week.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 24th against QBs in fantasy points allowed. The Jaguars’ defense also ranks 26th in passing yards allowed (270.7/gm), 25th in points allowed (30.2/gm.), and last in DVOA vs. the pass.
The Chargers’ offense ranks 16th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Jaguars’ defense which ranks last.
Herbert has a 7:1 TD:INT % over has last two games, and now gets the easiest matchup he has seen thus far.
Joe Burrow (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7100 (11.8% of cap). Burrow’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Browns has the game total at 50.5 points with the Bengals as +3.5 point home dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 23.5 points and the Browns are currently at 27 points.
Burrow posted a 25/39, 313, 0:1 passing line, and 3-2-1 on the ground at Indianapolis (1st vs. QBs) last week.
Ben Roethlisberger recorded a 14/22, 162, 1:0 passing line and 3-5-0 on the ground against the Browns last week.
The Browns’ defense ranks 25th against QBs in fantasy points allowed. The Browns’ defense also ranks 27th in passing yards allowed (271.7/gm), 30th in points allowed (31.2/gm.), and 19th in DVOA vs. the pass.
The Bengals’ offense ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate vs. a Browns’ defense which ranks 19th.
Burrow has exceeded 300+ passing yards in 4 of 6 games, and leads the league in pass attempts. The implied negative game-script should have him busy this week and he makes for a cheap punt-play.
UPDATE:
RB Joe Mixon (foot) has been ruled out.
Running Back
Justin Jackson (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Jackson’s upcoming salary ranks him 26th/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
Jackson posted a 15-71-0 rushing line and 5-23-0 on 6 targets with 42 snaps (59%) at New Orleans (23rd vs. RBs) in Week 5.
The Lions’ RBs combined for a 33-165-3 rushing line (5.0 avg.), and 5-36-0 on 7 targets at Jacksonville last week.
The Jaguars rank 24th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, and 29th over the past four weeks. The Chargers’ offense ranks 24th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jaguars’ defense which ranks 13th.
For the first time this season, Jackson out-snapped Joshua Kelley 42 to 25 in Week 5. Jackson also had the advantage in opportunities with 21 vs. 12 for Kelley.
Jackson makes for a cheap play with a solid matchup.
Todd Gurley II (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000 (12% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6600 (11% of cap). Gurley’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Lions has the game total at 55 points with the Falcons as -2.5 point home favorites. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 28.75 points and the Lions are currently at 26.25 points.
Gurley posted a 20-47-0 rushing line and 3-20-0 on 4 targets with 36 snaps (55%) at Minnesota (21st vs. RBs) last week.
The Jaguars’ RBs combined for a 12-29-0 rushing line and 7-39-1 on 8 targets against the Lions last week.
The Lions rank 29th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 23rd over the past four weeks, and 30th in DVOA vs. the run. The Falcons’ O-line ranks 15th in adjusted line yards vs. the Lions’ defense which ranks 31st.
Gurley gets the best positional matchup on the team in a game-script that works in his favor. It doesn’t hurt that RB Brian Hill lost a fumble last week as well.
Wide Receiver
Mike Williams (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700 (9.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.8% of cap). Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 35th/27th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Jaguars has the game total at 49 points with the Chargers as -8 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 28.5 points and the Jaguars are currently at 20.5 points. The Chargers are coming off their bye.
Williams posted a 5-109-2 receiving line on 8 targets with 55 snaps (77%) at New Orleans (20th vs. WRs) in Week 5 (Keenan Allen hurt).
The Lions’ WRs combined for a 9-150-0 line on 10 targets at Jacksonville last week.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 19th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 19th over the past four weeks.
Williams’ aDOT (17.6) ranks 4th for WRs, and provides the deep threat for Herbert in a plus matchup.
Diontae Johnson (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.7% of cap). Johnson’s upcoming salary ranks him 49th/29th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Titans has the game total at 50.5 points with the Steelers as +1 point road dogs. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Titans are currently at 25.75 points.
Johnson (back) put in a full practice on Wednesday and is expected to play this week.
Texans’ WRs combined for an 18-208-3 receiving line on 24 targets at Tennessee last week.
The Titans’ defense ranks 27th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 31st over the past four weeks.
Johnson has the cheapest cost of the starting WRs for the Steelers, and also gets a solid matchup as well.
Tight End
Austin Hooper (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000 (8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5400 (9% of cap). Hooper’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Bengals has the game total at 50.5 points with the Browns as -3.5 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Bengals are currently at 23.5 points.
Hooper posted a 5-52-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 40 snaps (70%) at Pittsburgh (7th vs. TEs) last week. Hooper’s targets, catches, and yards led the team last week.
The Colts’ TEs combined for a 7-87-2 receiving line on 8 targets against the Bengals last week.
The Bengals’ defense ranks 26th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 19th over the past four weeks.
Hooper has averaged 7.7 targets and 5 catches over his past three games, and provides for a solid floor play.
UPDATE:
Hooper (appendectomy) has been ruled out. David Njoku and Harrison Bryant should fill-in.
