NFL Week 6 DFS Value Player Picks
NFL Week 6: October 10 – 14, 2019
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 6.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Gardner Minshew II (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000 (10% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6900 (11.5% of cap). Minshew’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
Minshew posted a 26/44, 374, 2:0 aerial line and 7-42-0 on the ground with 3 lost fumbles, At Carolina last week. Minshew’s fantasy points of 27.16/21.16 ranked him 7th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. His price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Saints (4-1) has the game total at 44.5 points with the Jaguars (2-3) as -1 point home favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Saints are currently at 21.75 points.
Jamies Winston logged a 15/27, 204, 2:0 passing line and 3-13-0 on the ground at New Orleans last week, good for 17.46 fantasy points.
The Saints’ defense ranks 28th vs. QBs, 26th vs. WRs, and 13th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. New Orleans also ranks 20th in Football Outsider’s DVOA pass defense metric. The Jaguars rank 5th in pass offense DVOA.
Minshew, currently fantasy’s QB11, is a cheap, solid play in a pass-funnel matchup, at home. A lot of boxes get checked with him.
Dak Prescott (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200 (12.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 8000 (13.33% of cap). Prescott’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.
Dak posted a 27/44, 463, 2:3 passing line and 4-27-0 on the ground against the Packers last week. Prescott’s fantasy points of 29.22/26.22 ranked him 5th/5th on DK/FD, respectively. His price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Jets (0-4) has the game total at 43 points with the Cowboys (3-2) as -7 point road favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Jets are currently at 18 points.
Carson Wentz put up a 17/29, 189, 1:0 passing line against the Jets last week.
The Jets’ defense ranks 14th vs. QBs and 22nd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. The Jets rank 6th vs. TEs, however, they faced no TE competition until they gave up 18.8 fantasy points to Philly TEs last week. LT Tyron Smith (ankle) is expected to return this week, to coincide with the Jets ranking 29th in adjusted sack rate. The table is set for Dak and co. in a bounce-back spot after getting hammered by Green Bay last week.
Kenyan Drake (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400 (8.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.33% of cap). Drake’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively.
Drake posted a 9-44-0 rush line and 3-29-0 on 5 targets with 28 snaps (54%) against the Chargers (16th vs. RBs) in week 4.
The betting line with the Redskins (0-5) has the game total at 41 points with the Dolphins (0-4) as +3.5 point home dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 18.75 points and the Redskins are currently at 22.25 points. The Dolphins are coming off their bye.
New England RBs combined for a 27-130-1 rushing line and 11-112-1 on 15 targets at Washington last week.
Washington’s defense ranks 27th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 24th in adjusted line yards.
It’s Toilet Bowl week. Regardless of how this game goes, Drake should mostly be script-proof, as he ranks 2nd on the team in catches and 3rd in targets. He’s a cheap play in that super rare opportunity where Miami players can be dusted-off for use. RB2 Mark Walton has surpassed Kalen Ballage and could cut into Drake’s snap %. Now on to the flip-side…
Adrian Peterson (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.83% of cap). Peterson’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/27th on DK/FD, respectively.
Chargers RBs combined for a 28-80-2 rushing line and 8-97-2 on 8 targets at Miami in week 4. The Dolphins’ defense ranks 31st against RBs in fantasy points allowed and in DVOA rush defense.
Jay Gruden was scapegoat fired two days ago, with O-line coach Bill Callahan now the interim HC. So in a nutshell, Callahan feels Washington hasn’t been running the ball enough and aims to “fix” that. Callahan’s neanderthal philosophy suits Peterson perfectly. If there’s one time this entire season where Peterson can be used, it is Toilet Bowl week.
Peterson leads the team in red zone opportunities with 8, and if he gets there, those should be his even more so. Peterson’s usage is dependent on rushing in neutral-script or with a lead. Washington will head into a game with an implied positive-script this one time. Party like it’s 1999!
Preston Williams (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100 (8.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.33% of cap). Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 45th/30th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
Williams posted a 4-46-0 line on 7 targets with 43 snaps (83%) against the Chargers in week 4. New England WRs combined for a 14-175-1 receiving line on 19 targets at Miami in week 4.
Washington ranks 29th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 28th in DVOA pass defense. Williams leads the team in all receiver categories, and his red zone targets (5) are more than the rest of the team combined. Williams is a cheap play in a rare occasion where it’s doable.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000 (10% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.83% of cap). Sutton’s upcoming salary ranks him 31st/26th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Titans (2-3) has the game total at 39 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos (1-4) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Titans are currently at 18.25 points.
Sutton posted a 4-92-1 line on 7 targets with 51 snaps (84%) at the Los Angeles Chargers (10th vs. WRs) last week. Buffalo WRs combined for a 14-177-1 line on 14 targets at Tennessee last week.
The Titans’ defense ranks 11th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 14th in DVOA pass defense. Sutton shouldn’t face any shadow coverage like he did with Casey Hayward last week. Sutton, currently the WR11, hasn’t seen less than 7 targets all year, and has been held to single digit points once this year vs. Chicago in week 2. The Titans haven’t allowed a ceiling game yet this season, but this isn’t a scary matchup, especially for Sutton’s volume and price.
Gerald Everett (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). Everett’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
Everett posted a 7-136-0 line on 11 targets with 58 snaps (81%) at Seattle (29th vs. TEs) last week. Cleveland TEs combined for a 1-0-0 line on 3 targets at San Francisco last week.
San Francisco’s defense ranks 3rd against TEs in fantasy points allowed. This ranking is misleading however, as the Niners have yet to be challenged at the position, with their “toughest” TE matchup being week 2 vs. Tyler Eifert who managed 9.9 points.
Everett’s snaps have been consistent and may trend higher if WR Brandin Cooks (concussion) doesn’t get cleared. Over the past two games, Everett averaged 9.5 targets/gm. RB Todd Gurley (quad) also popped on the injury report today. Everett’s involvement in the offense should further increase throughout the season.
RB Todd Gurley (quad) is listed as doubtful.