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NFL Week 6: October 12 – 16, 2017

We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 6.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700, FanDuel (FD) – 7900. Watson’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Watson recorded a 16/31, 261, 5:0 line and 3-31-0 on the ground against the Chiefs last week. Watson’s fantasy points of 35.54 ranked him 1st for QBs on both DK/FD. Watson’s price per point efficiency also ranked him 1st on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 46.5 points with the Texans as -9.5 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 28 points while the Browns are currently at 18.5 points.

Josh McCown logged a 23/30, 194, 2:1 line for a 101.3 passer rating against the Browns last week. Cleveland ranks 29th DVP against QBs and 31st DVOA against the pass.

Watson should eat…like Golden Corral style with the munchies.

Jacoby Brissett (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Brissett’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/24th on DK/FD, respectively. Brissett recorded a 22/34, 314, 0:1 line and 8-14-1 on the ground against the 49ers last week. Brissett’s fantasy points of 21.96/18.96 ranked him 8th/9th for QBs on DK/FD. Brissett’s price per point efficiency also ranked him 7th/9th on DK/FD for the position.

No betting lines available yet as Marcus Mariota’s (hamstring) status is currently unknown. Tennessee hosts Indianapolis on Monday night.

Tennessee ranks 30th in DVP against QBs, overall, 25th in DVOA against the pass, and tied for 31st in points allowed. Brissett is a cheap option with a great matchup to drop a Monday night hammer.

Carson Palmer (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7100. Palmer’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Palmer recorded a 28/44, 291, 1:0 line at Philadelphia last week. Palmer’s fantasy points of 15.64 ranked him 15th/12th for QBs on DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Bucs has the game total at 44.5 points with the Cardinals as +2.5 point home dogs. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 21 points while the Bucs are currently at 23.5 points.

Tom Brady logged a 30/40, 303, 1:1 line with a lost fumble at Tampa Bay last week. Tampa Bay ranks 28th in DVP against QBs, overall, 27th in DVOA against the pass, and 31st in passing yards allowed. Tampa Bay has four total sacks on the season, ranking last in the league.

Palmer ranks first in the league in pass attempts and second in yards. It’s still early enough in the season and Palmer’s arm hasn’t fallen off yet, so he will still be airing it out plenty with a solid matchup at home.
Update: LB Lavonte David, DE Robert Ayers, and S T.J. Ward all return this week.

Running Back

CJ Anderson (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6600, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Anderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Anderson put up a line of 20-95-0 on the ground and 4-17-0 on 4 targets against Oakland in week 4.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 40 points with the Broncos as -12 point (largest on the board) home favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 26 points while the Giants are currently at 14 points. Denver is coming off a bye.

Melvin Gordon dropped a line of 20-105-0 on the ground and 6-58-2 on 8 targets at New York last week. The Giants rank 23rd in DVP against RBs and 28th in DVOA against the run. Due to the massive injuries to New York’s WR corps, something called Roger Lewis is now their likely WR1.

This is scripting towards a total Anderson game from start to finish.

Mark Ingram (NO) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Ingram’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/24th on DK/FD, respectively. Ingram put up a line of 14-45-0 on the ground and 4-17-0 on 8 targets at Miami in week 4.

The betting lines with the Lions has the game total at 50.5 points (largest on the board) with the Saints as -5 point home favorites. The Saints’ implied team total is currently at 27.75 points while the Lions are currently at 22.75 points. New Orleans is coming off a bye.

Detroit ranks 15th in DVP against RBs and 5th in DVOA against the run. Ingram should hold onto his current 60:40 snap rate share over Alvin Kamara, especially with Adrian Peterson traded to Arizona.

If the positive game script holds for New Orleans, Ingram should out-snap and out-touch Kamara to control time possession.
Update: DT Haloti Ngata (biceps) has been placed on IR.

Javorius Allen (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Allen’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/26th on DK/FD, respectively. Allen put up a line of 21-73-1 on the ground and 4-12-0 on 5 targets at Oakland last week. Allen’s fantasy points of 18.5/16.5 ranked him 6th/5th on DK/FD for the position. Allen’s price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/6th on DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Bears has the game total at 40 points with the Ravens as -6.5 point home favorites. The Ravens’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points while the Bears are currently at 16.75 points.

Minnesota RBs combined for a line of 29-126-1 and 9-74-0 on 10 targets at Chicago last week. Chicago ranks 18th in DVP against RBs and 20th in DVOA against the run.

Allen held a 74% snap rate to Alex Collins’ 24% snap rate last week. Especially with Terrance West (calf) likely out this week, Allen should have a three-phase role with a positive game script on the cheap.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Adams’ upcoming salary ranks him 28th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Adams put up a line of 7-66-2 on 11 targets (all team highs) at Dallas last week. Adams’ fantasy points of 25.6/22.1 ranked him 5th/3rd on DK/FD for the position. Adams’ price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/5th on DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Vikings has the game total at 47 points with the Packers as -3.5 point road favorites. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 25.5 points while the Vikings are currently at 21.75 points.

Minnesota ranks 20th in DVP against WRs and 21st in DVOA against the pass.

With Xavier Rhodes likely against Jordy Nelson at the “X”, Adams will have the benefit of a nice matchup with Trae Waynes. Expect Aaron Rodgers to exploit this matchup often and successfully.

Devin Funchess (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Funchess’ upcoming salary ranks him 21st/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Funchess put up a line of 7-53-1 on 8 targets (targets and catches were team highs) at Detroit last week. Funchess’ fantasy points of 18.3/14.8 ranked him 15th/12th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Eagles has the game total at 46 points with the Panthers as -3 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 24.5 points while the Eagles are currently at 21.5 points.

The Eagles rank 29th in DVP against WRs and 15th in DVOA against the pass.

Funchess is tied for 3rd in red zone TDs with 3, all coming in the past two games. Funchess ranks 1st on the team in targets and receiving TDs, 2nd in catches, and 3rd in yards. With Cam Newton getting his groove on now, expect Funchess to continue to be a heavily involved factor, as he’s averaged 9 targets the past three games.

Will Fuller (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Fuller’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/36th on DK/FD, respectively. Fuller put up a line of 2-57-2 on 3 targets against Kansas City last week. Fuller’s fantasy points of 20.2/19.2 ranked him 8th/6th on DK/FD for the position. Fuller’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/2nd on DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 46.5 points with the Texans as -9.5 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 28 points while the Browns are currently at 18.5 points.

Cleveland ranks 13th in DVP against WRs and 30th in DVOA against the pass.

Fuller has a total line of 6-92-4 on 9 targets in his two games since his return. Fuller had a 92% snap rate last week, despite only three touches. Obviously, the TD regression is coming but the targets should also increase in a solid matchup. At this point, Fuller brings some do-or-die volatility.

Tight End

George Kittle (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Kittle’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Kittle put up a line of 7-83-1 on 9 targets at Indianapolis last week. Kittle’s fantasy points of 21.3/17.8 ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD for the position. Kittle’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Redskins has the game total at 46.5 points with the 49ers as +9.5 point road dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points while the Redskins are currently at 28 points.

Washington ranks 30th in DVP against TEs and 31st in DVOA against TEs. Washington is coming off a bye.

Kittle is coming off a week where he led San Francisco TEs with a 56% snap rate and received 9 targets to Garrett Celek’s one. Kittle is tied for 2nd for TEs in red zone targets (6) and catches (4). Kittle’s involvement should maintain or increase and the positional matchup doesn’t get much better.

Hunter Henry (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Henry’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Henry put up a line of 3-42-1 on 8 targets at New York Giants last week. Henry’s fantasy points of 13.2/11.7 ranked him 12th on both DK/FD for the position.

No betting lines available yet as Derek Carr’s (back) official status has not been declared, although he is likely a go per BlackJack. Oakland hosts Los Angeles on Sunday.

Oakland ranks 12th in DVP against TEs and 30th in DVOA against the pass.

Henry’s snap rate has finally exceeded Antonio Gates with a 76 to 53 ratio. Henry is the more efficient TE and perhaps the Charger coaching staff is finally realizing this. Henry has a slight edge in red zone looks and catches to Gates, and this should continue since Gates’ TD record has already been reached. But then again, this is the Chargers.


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