NFL Week 6: October 18 – 19, 2020
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 6.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300 (12.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7300 (12.2% of cap). Stafford’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Jaguars has the game total at 54.5 points with the Lions as +3.5 point road dogs. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 29 points (2nd highest on the board) and the Jaguars are currently at 25.5 points. The Lions are coming off their bye.
Stafford posted a 17/31, 206, 3:1 passing line, and 3-21-0 on the ground against the Saints (29th vs. QBs) in Week 4.
Deshaun Watson recorded a 27/35, 359, 3:2 passing line and 2-25-0 on the ground against the Jaguars last week, good for the QB5 finish.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 25th against QBs in fantasy points allowed. The Jaguars’ defense also ranks 29th in passing yards allowed (280.2/gm), 24th in points allowed (29.4/gm.), and last in DVOA vs. the pass.
The Lions’ offense ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Jaguars’ defense which ranks 31st.
Stafford gets a friendly matchup at a reasonable price.
Kirk Cousins (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7100 (11.8% of cap). Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 10th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Falcons has the game total at 55 points (highest on the board), with the Vikings as -3.5 point home favorites. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 29.25 points and the Falcons are currently at 25.75 points.
Cousins posted a 27/39, 249, 2:1 passing line with a lost fumble at Seattle (31st vs. QBs) last week.
Teddy Bridgewater recorded a 27/37, 313, 2:0 passing line at Atlanta last week.
The Vikings’ defense ranks last against QBs and TEs, and 24th against WRs in fantasy points allowed. The Falcons’ defense also ranks 31st in passing yards allowed (335.8/gm), 31st (tied) in points allowed (32.2/gm.), and 30th in DVOA vs. the pass.
The Vikings’ offense ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Falcons’ defense which ranks 29th.
Cousins may get a potential home shootout with favorable matchups across the board.
Running Back
Myles Gaskin (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400 (10.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Gaskin’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Jets has the game total at 47 points, with the Dolphins as -9.5 point home favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Jets are currently at 18.75 points.
Gaskin posted a 16-57-1 rushing line and 5-34-0 on 5 targets with 42 snaps (64%) at San Francisco (2nd vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB8 finish.
The Cardinals’ RBs combined for a 21-96-2 rushing line and 6-58-0 on 6 targets at the Jets last week.
The Jets rank 28th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Dolphins’ offense ranks 28th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jets’ defense which ranks 3rd.
Gaskin ranks 4th in catches (23) and 5th in targets (25) amongst all RBs, and with TD vulture Jordan Howard finally a healthy scratch for the first time last week, Gaskin is looking at a true workhorse role moving forward.
David Montgomery (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800 (11.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.8% of cap). Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/19th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Panthers has the game total at 44.5 points with the Bears as +1.5 point road dogs. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Panthers are currently at 23 points.
Montgomery posted a 10-29-1 rushing line and 7-30-0 on 8 targets with 51 snaps (81%) against the Bucs (15th vs. RBs) last week.
The Falcons’ RBs combined for a 23-167-1 rushing line and 6-44-0 on 7 targets against the Panthers last week.
The Panthers rank last vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 29th in DVOA vs. the run. The Bears’ O-line ranks 12th in adjusted line yards vs. the Panthers’ defense which ranks 22nd.
Montgomery has averaged 7 targets per game and an every-down role since Tarik Cohen (ACL) has been placed on IR two week ago. He’ll see a volume role in a projected competitive game this week.
UPDATE:
DT Kawann Short (shoulder) is now out for the year. Significant loss for Carolina’s interior line.
Wide Receiver
Marques Valdez-Scantling (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Fuller’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/27th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Bucs has the game total at 55 points with the Packers as -1 point road favorites. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Bucs are currently at 26.75 points. The Packers are coming off their bye.
MVS posted a 4-45-0 receiving line on 8 targets with 61 snaps (91%) against the Falcons in Week 4 (No Davante Adams).
The Bears’ WRs combined for a 19-171-0 line on 28 targets against the Bucs last week.
The Bucs’ defense ranks 12th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed.
WR Davante Adams (hamstring) is expected to return this week, which should draw defensive attention his way. MVS’ aDOT (17.2) ranks 4th for WRs, which the return of Adams should open up deep looks for Aaron Rodgers.
A.J. Brown (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600 (11.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6500 (10.8% of cap). Brown’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Texans has the game total at 52.5 points with the Titans as -3 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 27.75 points and the Texans are currently at 24.75 points.
Brown posted a 7-82-1 receiving line on 9 targets with 47 snaps (71%) against the Bills last week.
Jaguars’ WRs combined for a 17-208-2 line on 24 targets against the Texans last week.
The Texans’ defense ranks 19th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed.
Brown returned with a bang against the Bills, not having played since Week 1. He gets a solid matchup with a cheap price.
Tight End
Trey Burton (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4700 (7.8% of cap). Burton’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Bengals has the game total at 46.5 points with the Colts as -7.5 point home favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Bengals are currently at 19.5 points.
Burton posted a 5-33-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 25 snaps (45%) at Cleveland last week. Burton’s targets and catches ranked him 2nd on the team last week.
The Ravens’ TEs combined for a 7-58-1 receiving line on 11 targets against the Bengals last week.
The Bengals’ defense ranks 21st vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed.
The Colts’ three TEs all get snaps, but Jack Doyle is primarily the in-line blocker, and Mo Allie-Cox’ role is getting minimized in the pass game with the return of Burton.
Burton provides for a cheap option and viable short-field target for Philip Rivers.
UPDATE:
Mo Allie-Cox (knee) has been ruled out.
Eric Ebron (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100 (8.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5200 (8.7% of cap). Ebron’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Browns has the game total at 51 points with the Steelers as -3 point home favorties. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Browns are currently at 24 points.
Ebron posted a 5-43-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 58 snaps (77%) against the Eagles last week. Ebron’s targets, catches, and yards ranked 2nd on the team last week.
The Colts’ TEs put up a 5-33-0 line on 9 targets at Cleveland last week.
The Browns’ defense ranks 27th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. The Browns also ranked 30th in passing yards allowed (296.4/gm.) and 24th in points allowed (29.8/gm.).
Ebron’s catches and yards rank him 3rd on the team and makes for a viable option this week.
