NFL Week 5 DFS Value Player Picks
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NFL Week 5: October 8 – 12, 2020

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 5.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.


Quarterback

Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7100 (11.8% of cap). Bridgewater’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Falcons has the game total at 54 points with the Panthers as +2 point road dogs. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Falcons is currently at 28 points.

Bridgewater posted a 26/37, 276, 2:1 passing line, and 6-32-1 on the ground against the Cardinals (17th vs. QBs) last week. His 27.24 fantasy points ranked him 4th for the position on both DK/FD.

Aaron Rodgers recorded a 27/33, 327, 4:0 passing line against the Falcons last week.

The Falcons’ defense ranks last against QBs in fantasy points allowed . The Falcons’ defense also ranks 31st in passing yards allowed (341.5/gm), points allowed (34.5), and have given up a league high 13 passing TDs. The Falcons’ secondary is injury riddled with roughly half of them at risk of missing this week.

The Panthers’ offense ranks 16th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Falcons’ defense which ranks 26th. The Panthers also quietly rank 8th in passing yards.

Bridgewater gets the nuts matchup in what could be a shootout, in a game the Panthers could outright win.

Deshaun Watson (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6900 (13.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7900 (13.2% of cap). Watson’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Jaguars has the game total at 54.5 points, with the Texans as -6 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 30.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 24.25 points.

Watson posted a 20/33, 300, 2:0 passing line, and 5-9-0 on the ground against the Vikings last week.

Joe Burrow recorded a 25/36, 300, 1:1 passing line, and 4-11-0 on the ground against the Jags last week.

The Vikings’ defense ranks 10th against QBs and 29th against WRs in fantasy points allowed.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks 25th against QBs. The Texans’ offense ranks last in adjusted sack rate vs. a Jaguars’ defense which ranks 29th. Watson will get his best matchup to date.

Running Back

David Johnson (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6400 (10.7% of cap). Johnson’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Jaguars has the game total at 54.5 points, with the Texans as -6 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 30.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 24.25 points.

Johnson posted a 16-63-0 rushing line and 2-29-0 on 3 targets with 36 snaps (55%) against the Vikings last week.

The Bengals’ RBs combined for a 27-170-2 rushing line and 6-30-1 on 6 targets against the Jaguars last week.

The Jaguars rank 27th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Texans’ offense ranks 21st in adjusted line yards vs. the Jaguars’ defense which ranks 11th.

Johnson has yet to exceed 16 carries, but the positive game-script, and his easiest matchup to date, set him up for a decent volume potential opportunity.

Mike Davis (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400 (12.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6800 (11.3% of cap). Singletary’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Falcons has the game total at 54 points with the Panthers as +2 point road dogs. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Falcons is currently at 28 points.

Davis posted a 16-84-1 rushing line and 5-27-0 on 6 targets with 55 snaps (71%) against the Cardinals last week, good for the RB7 finish.

The Packers’ RBs combined for a 24-84-0 rushing line and 14-143-1 on 15 targets against the Falcons last week.

The Falcons rank 24th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Panthers’ O-line ranks 14th in adjusted line yards vs. the Falcons’ defense which ranks 7th.

The Falcons’ defense allows averages of 8.5 catches, 64.3 receiving yards, and .8 receiving TDs to RBs, bottom-three ranks in all categories. Davis has logged a 21-146-1 receiving line on 23 targets this season. His targets, catches, and receiving yards ranks him top-four in all categories for RBs.

Also, RB Reggie Bonnafon (ankle) will miss the next 4-6 weeks, after having logged a 27% snap-share last week. Davis is a script-proof play and gets a friendly matchup.

Wide Receiver

Robby Anderson (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Fuller’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/27th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Falcons has the game total at 54 points with the Panthers as +2 point road dogs. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Falcons is currently at 28 points.

Anderson posted an 8-99-0 receiving line on 11 targets with 44 snaps (57%) against the Cardinals last week. His targets, catches, and receiving yards led the team. Anderson leads the Panthers in all receiving categories.

The Packers’ WRs combined for a 7-86-0 line on 12 targets at Minnesota last week.

The Falcons’ defense ranks 23rd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. They also rank 31st in passing yards allowed (341.4/gm) and 31st in points allowed (34.5/gm).

In a potential shootout spot, Anderson has a ceiling possibility in this solid matchup.

Tee Higgins (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5400 (9% of cap). Higgins’ upcoming salary ranks him 32nd/38th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Ravens has the game total at 51 points with the Bengals as +13 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Ravens are currently at 32 points.

Higgins posted a 4-77-0 receiving line on 7 targets with 43 snaps (57%) against the Jaguars last week.

Washington WRs combined for a 20-184-0 line on 26 targets against the Ravens last week.

The Ravens’ defense ranks 16th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed.

The Bengals toss the 2nd most pass attempts (177), largely from negative game-script, which will certainly be no different this week as 13 point dogs. Higgins should be on the field a lot in this one.

Tight End

Eric Ebron (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000 (8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Ebron’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Eagles has the game total at 44 points with the Steelers as -7 point home favs. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 25.5 points and the Eagles are currently at 18.5 points. The Steelers are coming off their bye.

Ebron posted a 5-51-1 receiving line on 7 targets with 60 snaps (75%) against the Texans in Week 3. Ebron’s receiving line led the team.

George Kittle put up a 15-183-1 line on 15 targets against the Eagles last week.

The Eagles’ defense ranks 29th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. Ebron gets the best positional matchup on the team against the Eagles.

Evan Engram (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600 (9.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5500 (9.2% of cap). Engram’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cowboys has the game total at 54 points with the Giants as +9.5 point road dogs. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Cowboys are currently at 31.75 points.

Ebron posted a 6-35-0 receiving line on 10 targets with 44 snaps (85%) at the Rams last week. Ebron’s receiving line led the team last week. Engram’s 30 targets on the season ranks him 3rd among all TEs and his targets, catches (17), and target share (20.1%) leads all Giants.

Cleveland TEs combined for a 9-71-1 receiving line on 11 targets against the Cowboys last week.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 26th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed.

Engram gets a solid matchup and should see a pass-heavy script this week.