NFL Week 5 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 5 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 5: October 3 – 7, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 5.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (12 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 5 Byes – Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins

Quarterback

Chase Daniel (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800 (9.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6500 (10.83% of cap). Daniel’s upcoming salary ranks him 27th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Daniel posted a 22/30, 195, 1:0 aerial line against Minnesota last week. Jones’ fantasy points of 12.2 ranked him 21st/20th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Raiders (2-2) has the game total at 40.5 points with the Bears (3-1) as -5 point favorites in London. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 17.75 points.

Jacoby Brissett logged a 24/46, 265, 3:1 passing line and 5-19-0 on the ground against the Raiders last week, good for 23.5 fantasy points.

The Raiders’ defense ranks 24th, 25th, and 28th against QBs, WRs, and TEs in fantasy points allowed, respectively. Oakland ranks 27th in Football Outsider’s DVOA pass defense metric and gives up the 4th (tied) most pass TDs with 9. The Raiders’ pass rush ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate vs. Chicago’s O-line which ranks 16th.

Daniel makes for a very cheap play in a friendly matchup across the board for him.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.83% of cap). Ryan’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.

Ryan posted a 35/53, 397, 0:0 passing line and 2-18-0 on the ground with a lost fumble against the Titans last week. Ryan’s fantasy points of 19.68/15.68 ranked him 13th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Texans (2-2) has the game total at 48.5 points with the Falcons (1-3) as +5 point road dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Texans are currently at 26.75 points.

Kyle Allen put up a 24/34, 232, 0:0 passing line with 3 lost fumbles at Houston last week.

Houston’s defense ranks 19th and 26th against QBs and WRs, respectively in fantasy points allowed. Atlanta leads the league in pass attempts with 44/gm and ranks 8th in pace. Ryan, currently the QB5, gets another dome game with an implied negative-script with shootout potential.

Running Back

David Montgomery (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/25th on DK/FD, respectively.

Montgomery posted a 21-53-0 rush line and 3-14-0 on 5 targets with 50 snaps (69%) against the Vikings (8th vs. RBs) last week.

The betting line with the Raiders (2-2) has the game total at 40.5 points with the Bears (3-1) as -5 point favorites in London. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 17.75 points.

Indianapolis RBs combined for an 18-62-0 rushing line and 7-50-0 on 7 targets, in a game they entirely trailed against the Raiders last week.

Oakland’s defense ranks 17th against RBs in fantasy points allowed. Oakland will also be without LB Vontaze Burfict (suspension) for the rest of the year.

Montgomery’s snaps and touches have consistently been on the rise. Montgomery’s combined carries and targets (26) ranked him 5th (tied) for the position last week. He’ll get an implied positive script with a 20+ touch opportunity.

Aaron Jones (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6800 (11.33% of cap). Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 15th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.

Jones posted a 13-21-1 rush line and 6-37-0 on 7 targets with 66 snaps (84%) against the Eagles (5th vs. RBs) last week. Jones’ fantasy points of 17.8/14.8 ranked him 16th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cowboys (3-1) has the game total at 47 points with the Packers (3-1) as +3.5 point road dogs. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Cowboys are currently at 25.25 points.

New Orleans RBs combined for a 21-83-0 rushing line and 5-29-0 on 5 targets against the Cowboys last week. The Cowboys’ defense ranks 12th against RBs in fantasy points allowed.

Jones ranks 2nd (tied) in red zone rushing TDs with 4. There is a good chance that target-hog WR Davante Adams (toe) and RB Jamaal Williams (concussion) could miss this week. Jones would make for a solid, script-proof play, as long as Williams misses this week.
Update:
Williams and Adams have been ruled out. Dexter Williams could get some run for Jamaal.

Wide Receiver

Javon Wims (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). Wims’ upcoming salary ranks him 72nd/81st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Wims posted a 4-56-0 line on 5 targets with 68 snaps (94%) against the Vikings last week.

Indianapolis WRs combined for a 12-145-1 receiving line on 26 targets against the Raiders last week. Without WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion), Wims’ snap-share jumps from 25.8% to 94.4%. See Chase Daniel above. This play is contingent that Gabriel misses this week.
Update:
Gabriel has been ruled out.

Auden Tate (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.83% of cap). Tate’s upcoming salary ranks him 72nd/45th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Cardinals (0-3-1) has the game total at 47.5 points with the Bengals (0-4) as -3 point home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Cardinals are currently at 22.25 points.

Tate posted a 4-50-0 line on 6 targets with 63 snaps (91%) at Pittsburgh (21st vs. WRs) last week. Seattle WRs combined for a 9-116-0 line on 13 targets against the Cardinals last week.

Arizona’s defense ranks 31st vs. QBs and 7th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. Arizona also gives up the 2nd (tied) most passing TDs with 10. WR John Ross (shoulder) will be out multiple weeks which frees up his 19% target share. Arizona ranks 1st in pace and the Bengals rank 7th, which sets up for a friendly offensive output scenario.

Tight End

Tyler Eifert (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.67% of cap). Eifert’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/25th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on FD.

Eifert posted a 2-27-0 line on 5 targets with 29 snaps (42%) at Pittsburgh (12th vs. TEs) last week. Will Dissly logged a 7-57-1 line on 8 targets against the Cardinals last week, good for a TE2/TE3 finish on DK/FD, respectively.

Arizona’s defense ranks last against TEs in fantasy points allowed. They’ve given up at least one TE TD every week this season. Eifert will be a cheap, TD or bust play. He will need to fall into the end zone like every other TE Arizona has faced since his opportunity and volume is otherwise just a low-floor play.

Dawson Knox (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4800 (8% of cap). Knox’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Knox posted a 3-58-0 line on 3 targets with 54 snaps (65%) against New England (4th vs. TEs) last week.

The betting line with the Titans (2-2) has the game total at 38.5 points with the Bills (3-1) as +3 point road dogs. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 17.75 points and the Titans are currently at 20.75 points.

Austin Hooper logged a 9-130-0 receiving line on 11 targets against the Titans last week.

The Titans rank 27th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. Knox has shown to be a talented rookie baller. Matt Barkley’s aDOT is much shorter than Josh Allen’s, which could better suit Knox in this TE friendly matchup.
Update:
QB Josh Allen (concussion) has passed the protocol and will start.

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