NFL Week 5 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 5: October 8 – 12, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 5.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (12 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Dallas Cowboys – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3500 (5.8% of cap). The Cowboys’ salary ranks them 11th/18th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Giants has the game total at 54 points with the Cowboys as -9.5 point road favorites. This is the 2nd widest spread on the board. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 31.75 points and the Giants are currently at 22.25 points.
The Cowboys’ defense logged 2 sacks, and gave up 49 points against the Browns last week, good for -2 fantasy points.
The Rams registered 5 sacks, with 1 interception, and allowed 9 points against the Giants last week, good for the DST3 finish.
The Cowboys’ defense ranks 16th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Giants’ offense which ranks 27th. Outside of this metric, the Cowboys’ defense ranks at or near bottom in most every notable defensive category. The Cowboys, however, have faced the Browns, Seahawks, Falcons, and Rams through four weeks.
The Giants’ offense ranks last in yards/gm (278) and points/gm (11.75). The Giants have 3 offensive TDs through four games. The Giants’ offense also coughs up the 3rd (tied) most turnovers (8).
QB Daniel Jones ranks 32nd in DVOA and 31st in fantasy points/gm.
Favoring the Cowboys, media outlets are all over the Cowboys’ poor defensive play, and deservedly so, but this attention could keep their popularity at a minimal. Also favoring the Cowboys is the large positive game-script which should aid the pressure advantage they have over the Giants.
The gamble on a bad Cowboys’ defense, boils down to the Giants’ offense being even worse, which very well could be the case.
Houston Texans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600 (5.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3700 (6.2% of cap). The Texans’ salary ranks them 16th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Jaguars has the game total at 54.5 points, with the Texans as -6 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 30.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 24.25 points.
The Texans’ defense registered 3 sacks and gave up 31 points to the Vikings last week.
The Bengals’ defense logged 3 sacks, 1 interception, and allowed 25 points to the Jags last week.
The Texans’ defense ranks 6th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Jaguars’ offense which ranks 29th. The Jags also rank 23rd vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed.
The Texans are the only team to not generate a turnover yet this season. The turnover regression should lean towards the Texans eventually, and QB Gardner Minshew averages 1 pick/gm.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800 (7.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4400 (7.8% of cap). The Steelers’ salary ranks them 5th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Eagles has the game total at 44 points with the Steelers as -7 point home favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 25.5 points and the Eagles are currently at 18.5 points. The Steelers are coming off a bye.
The Steelers’ defense logged 5 sacks, 1 interception, and allowed 21 points to the Texans in Week 4.
The 49ers’ defense delivered 3 sacks, 1 interception, and allowed 19 offensive points to the Eagles last week.
The Steelers’ defense ranks 2nd in adjusted sack rate vs. an Eagles’ offense which ranks 20th. The Steelers’ defense ranks 2nd in sacks (15) and QB hits (39) in only three games. They also rank 5th in fantasy points scored/gm.
The Eagles’ offense leads the league in interceptions (7) and has given up the 3rd most sacks (14 tied). The Eagles also rank 29th against defenses in fantasy points allowed.
The Eagles are afflicted with injuries at all receiver positions and O-line, which makes them more like a wounded duck, especially for a rested/elite defense.