NFL Week 5 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 5 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 5: October 3 – 7, 2019

We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 5.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (12 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made as new info comes to light.

Week 5 Byes: Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins

Defense

Cincinnati Bengals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500 (5% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3700 (6.17% of cap). The Bengals’ salary ranks them 18th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Cardinals (0-3-1) has the game total at 47.5 points with the Bengals (0-4) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 25.5 points and the Cardinals are currently at 22 points.

At Pittsburgh last week, the Bengals’ defense logged 1 fumble recovery and allowed 27 points. The Seahawks’ defense logged 4 sacks and 1 pick returned for a TD while holding the Cardinals’ offense to 10 points at Arizona last week.

Arizona leads the league in sacks allowed with 20 and gives up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Arizona also averages the 3rd most pass attempts with 42.2/gm and ranks 1st in pace at 23.88 sec/play.

This simply boils down to a “suck vs. suck” matchup, and whoever sucks less, gets the edge. The Bengals, as home favorites with an early start-time, may suck less.

Carolina Panthers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600 (5.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4400 (7.33% of cap). Carolina’s salary ranks them 16th/9th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Jaguars (2-2) has the game total at 41 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Panthers (2-2) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 22.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 18.75 points.

At Houston last week, the Panthers’ defense logged 6 sacks, 1 pick, 1 fumble recovery, and allowed 10 points, good for a DEF7 finish with 14 points. Against the Jaguars last week, the Broncos’ defense tallied 5 sacks and gave up 26 points.

Carolina’s defense ranks 1st (tied) in sacks with 18 as well as QB hits with 35. Carolina ranks 6th, 9th, and 5th against QBs, WRs, and TEs, respectively, in fantasy points allowed. Gardner Minshew’s tendency is to not make mistakes, but this defensive matchup against Carolina will be the Jags’ toughest to date.

Tennessee Titans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4800 (8% of cap). The Titans’ salary ranks them 9th/4th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Bills (3-1) has the game total at 38.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Titans (2-2) as -3 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Bills are currently at 17.75 points.

At Atlanta last week, the Titans’ defense logged 5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and held the Falcons to 10 points. At Buffalo last week, New England’s defense tallied 5 sacks, 4 picks, a blocked punt returned for a TD, and held the Bills to 10 points.

The Titans rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to offenses, and 6th in fantasy points scored. The Titans also rank 6th (tied) in sacks with 13. The Bills toss up the most (tied) interceptions with 7 as well as total turnovers (tied) with 10.

There is a probable chance that QB Josh Allen (concussion) misses this week, which leaves Matt Barkley as the fill-in.
Update:
Allen has cleared the protocol and is expected to start.

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