NFL Week 4 DFS Defense Value Picks
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NFL Week 4 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 4: October 1 – 5, 2020

We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 4.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made as new info comes to light.

Defense

Indianapolis Colts – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4900 (8.2% of cap). The Colts’ salary ranks them 9th/2nd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Bears has the game total at 45 points (lowest on the board) with the Colts as +2.5 point road favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Bears are currently at 21.25 points.

The Colts’ defense logged 2 sacks, with 18 QB hits, 3 interceptions, two of which were returned for TDs, a safety, and held the Jets to 7 points, good for 26 fantasy points, which ranked 1st for defenses last week.

The Falcons registered 2 sacks on 24 QB hits, with 2 interceptions, and gave up 30 points against the Bears last week.

The Colts’ D-line ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate vs. the Bears’ O-line which ranks 19th. The Colts’ defense also ranks 1st in fantasy points (15/gm), yards allowed (225.3), passing yards allowed (132.0), points allowed (15.0), and 4th in rushing yards allowed (93.3). QB Nick Foles is now starting for the Bears.

The Colts’ defense happened to be in the DraftKings Millionaire winning lineups the past two weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4700 (7.8% of cap). The Bucs’ salary ranks them 7th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Chargers has the game total at 43.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Bucs as -7 point home favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Chargers are currently at 18.25 points.

The Bucs’ defense logged 6 sacks on 20 QB hits, 2 interceptions, 1 blocked kick, 1 safety, and held the Broncos to 7 points last week. The Bucs’ 18 fantasy points ranked 2nd.

The Panthers’ defense logged 2 sacks, 1 interception, 3 fumbles recovered, and held the Chargers to 16 points last week, good for 11 fantasy points.

The Bucs’ D-line ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Chargers’ O-line which ranks 9th. The Bucs’ defense also ranks 3rd (tied) in fantasy points scored.

The Bucs’ defense is expected to get multiple opportunities to attack the Chargers’ rookie QB in this positive-script, home matchup.

Seattle Seahawks – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4000 (6.7% of cap). The Seahawks’ salary ranks them 7th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Dolphins has the game total at 54.5 points (2nd highest on the board), with the Seahawks as -6.5 point road favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 30.5 points and the Dolphins are currently at 24 points.

The Seahawks’ defense registered 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, a blocked kick, a safety, and gave up 31 points against the Cowboys last week, good for 11 fantasy points.

The Jags’ defense logged 1 sack, and gave up 31 points to the Dolphins last week.

The Seahawks’ defense ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Dolphins’ offense which ranks 11th. The Seahawks’ defense also ranks last in passing yards allowed (430.7/gm.) and 22nd in points allowed (28.7) after facing Dallas, New England, and Atlanta.

The Seahawks get a matchup against the last of the OG YOLO QBs in Ryan Fitzpatrick. The pass-attempts should be there for Fitzpatrick, which always leaves the door open to a week of FitzTragic.

UPDATE:
SS Jamal Adams (groin), CB Quinton Dunbar (knee), and LB Jordyn Brooks (knee) have been ruled out, and CB Shaquill Griffin (shoulder) is questionable. This is no bueno, especially considering Adams is Seattle’s sack leader.