NFL Week 3: September 20 – 24, 2018
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 3.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
#BortlesFacts – In their head-to-head matchup last week, Tom Brady and Blake Bortles combined for 6 passing TDs.
Blake Bortles (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Bortles’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Bortles posted a 29/45, 377, 4:1 line and 8-35-0 on the ground last week. Bortles’ fantasy points of 36.58/33.58 ranked him 4th on both DK/FD. Bortles’ price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD. Bortles aggressiveness % of 28.9 ranked him 2nd last week.
The betting lines for this game are currently off the board as the statuses of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) and RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) are currently unknown. When the lines do go live, expect the Jaguars to be home favorites.
The Titans’ defense ranked 24th in DVOA against the pass last season and currently rank 25th thru the first two weeks. The Titans rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs with 21.2/gm. Deshaun Watson put up a 22/32, 310, 2:1 line and 5-44-0 on the ground at Tennessee last week.
Bortles hit over 6X value last week, and his price dropped $200 this week on DK. Bortles would make for a great play if Leonard Fournette (hamstring) misses again this week. With Fournette in-split, Bortles ceiling is capped with the run-heavy tendencies employed.
Update:
Per Schefter, Fournette not expected to play. T.J. Yeldon expected to start.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Fitzpatrick’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Fitzpatrick posted a line of 27/33, 402, 4:1 against the Eagles last week. Fitzpatrick’s fantasy points of 33.98/30.98 ranked him 5th/6th on DK/FD, respectively. Fitzpatrick’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/5th on DK/FD, respectively. Thus far this season, Fitzpatrick is averaging 409.5 yards and 4.5 total TDs per game, ranking him 1st/2nd respectively.
The betting lines with the Steelers has the game total at 53.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Bucs as +1 point home dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and the Steelers are currently at 27.25 points for the Monday night hammer game.
The Steelers rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to QBs with 33.2/gm and rank 21st in DVOA thru the first two weeks. The Steelers also give up the 28th most points per game with 31.5. Patrick Mahomes put up a 23/28, 326, 6:0 line and 5-18-0 on the ground at Pittsburgh which made him the #2 fantasy QB last week.
The Monday night game has potential for absolute fireworks. Expect heavy ownership for the skill players involved in any slate involving this game.
Cam Newton (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 8300. Newton’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Newton posted a 32/45, 335, 3:1 line and 5-42-0 on the ground at Atlanta last week. Newton’s fantasy points of 31.6/28.6 ranked him 7th on both DK/FD. Newton’s price per point efficiency ranked him 8th on both DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Bengals has the game total at 43.5 points with the Panthers as -3 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Bengals are currently at 20.25 points.
The Bengals rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to QBs with 23.95/gm and rank 12th in DVOA thru the first two weeks. The Bengals also give up the 3rd most pass yards per game with 332. Joe Flacco put up a 32/55, 376, 2:2 line at Cincinnati last week.
Cam brings a solid floor with his ground game, as he leads QBs in rush attempts, averaging 9/gm and ranks 2nd with 50 rush yards/gm. Cam at 4X value is what Cincinnati gives up to QBs and is also what Cam has been averaging. His matchup isn’t daunting as a home favorite.
Running Back
Chris Thompson (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Thompson’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/19th on DK/FD, respectively. Thompson posted a 4-1-0 rush line and 13-92-0 on 14 targets (all team highs) against Indianapolis last week. Thompson’s fantasy points of 22.3/15.8 ranked him 6th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Thompson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.
Thompson out-snapped Adrian Peterson 50 to 25 last week. Thompson leads the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards as Alex Smith’s de facto WR1. On the season, Thompson also has 4 red zone touches, converting one for a TD.
The betting lines with the Packers has the game total at 45.5 points with Washington as +3 point home dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 21.25 points and the Packers are currently at 24.25 points.
The Packers rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RBs but also rank 24th in DVOA against RBs in the pass. The Vikings’ RBs combined for a 15-62-0 line and 3-52-0 on 5 targets at Green Bay last week.
Thompson ranks 6th/5th in RB fantasy points/gm on DK/FD, respectively. He essentially has been producing Saquon Barkley numbers at a cheaper price.
Matt Breida (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Breida’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/31st on DK/FD, respectively. Breida posted an 11-138-1 line and 3-21-0 on 4 targets against Detroit last week. Breida’s fantasy points of 27.9/23.4 ranked him 4th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Breida’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 56.5 points (highest on the board)with the 49ers as +6.5 point road dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Chiefs are currently at 31.5 points.
The Chiefs rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to RBs with 39.2/gm. The Steelers’ RBs combined for a 9-19-1 line and 7-72-0 on 7 targets against the Chiefs last week.
Although Breida and Alfred Morris are at a near even split in snaps and touches, Breida leads the NFL in rushing yards and has been the much more effective runner of the two. If the implied negative game-script holds, especially early, usage could be an issue as Jimmy G spreads the ball around.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Boyd’s upcoming salary ranks him 73rd/95th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Boyd posted a 6-91-1 line on 9 targets (all team highs) against Baltimore last week. Boyd’s fantasy points of 21.1/18.1 ranked him 17th/12th on DK/FD for the position. Boyd’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/2nd on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Panthers has the game total at 43.5 points with the Bengals as +3 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 20.25 points and the Panthers are currently at 23.25 points.
The Panthers rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 26th in DVOA against the pass, but this includes a game against the Cowboys’ non-existent passing unit. The Falcons’ WRs combined for a 14-177-1 line on 17 targets against the Panthers last week.
Boyd ranks 2nd on the team in snaps, targets, and catches, just behind A.J. Green. Boyd comes at a cheap price for a slot WR against a usually pass-funnel defense. RB Gio Bernard will also be starting for Joe Mixon (knee) this week.
Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Kupp ‘s upcoming salary ranks him 45th/37th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Kupp posted a 6-63-0 line on 6 targets against Arizona last week. Kupp’s fantasy points of 12.3/9.3 ranked him 44th/48th on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Chargers has the game total at 48 points with the Rams as -7 point road favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Chargers are currently at 20.5 points.
The Chargers defense ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 20th in DVOA against the pass. The Bills’ WRs combined for a 6-112-1 line on 9 targets from Josh Allen against the Chargers last week.
Kupp sees a fairly even share of snaps, targets, and catches to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. However, Kupps’ red zone targets/catches/yards/TDs of 6/4/22/1 exceeds that of Cooks and Woods combined. For reference, see WR Red Zone Stats here.
Of the three Ram WRs, he’s slightly the cheapest and brings red zone opportunity when Todd Gurley isn’t hogging all the scores.
Sammy Watkins (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Watkins’ upcoming salary ranks him 41st/38th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Watkins posted a 6-100-0 line on 7 targets at Pittsburgh last week. His targets/catches/yards led all KC WRs last week and these stats ranked 2nd to Travis Kelce.
Watkins’ fantasy points of 22.1/16.1 ranked him 14th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively, for the position. Watkins’ price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/18th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the 49ers has the game total at 56.5 points (highest on the board) with the Chiefs as -6.5 point home favorites. The Chiefs’ implied team total is currently at 31.5 points and the 49ers are currently at 25 points.
The 49ers defense ranks 25th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 22nd in DVOA against the pass. The Lions’ WRs combined for a 17-252-2 line on 31 targets at San Francisco last week.
Watkins ranked 2nd on the team in WR snap % with 83%. Tyreek Hill’s 86% led KC WRs. Watkins’ 12 WR targets on the season also rank 2nd behind Hill’s 14. Due to Patrick Mahomes rocket arm and league leading aDot of 12.1 yards, Watkins is no longer just a lid-lifter, as Mahomes has the ability to make any receiver in this offense viable.
Of the five KC WRs, all have at least one TD catch, except Watkins. His time will come.
Tight End
OJ Howard (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Howard’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Howard posted a 3-96-1 line on 4 targets against the Eagles last week. Howard’s fantasy points of 18.6/17.1 ranked him 5th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively, for the position. Howard’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Steelers has the game total at 53.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Bucs as +1 point home dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and the Steelers are currently at 27.25 points for the Monday night hammer game.
The Steelers’ defense ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 20th in DVOA against TEs. Travis Kelce posted a 7-109-2 line on 10 targets at Pittsburgh last week.
Howard Pros:
– Ranks 3rd in receiving yards for TEs with 150.
– Only Buc TE to receive a target.
– If stacked with Fitzpatrick and they hit, Yahtzee!!!
Howard Cons:
– Averages 3 targets per game.
– His 5 catches on the year ranks 22nd (tied w/ 4 other TEs).
TE will be interesting this week as early looks appear to be go big or go punt.
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