NFL Week 2 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 2 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 2: September 12th – 16th, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 2.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Derek Carr (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100 (10.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6600 (11% of cap). Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/20th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Carr posted a 22/26, 259, 1:0 line with a 121.0 passer rating against Denver last week. Carr’s QB DVOA ranked 3rd and his 10.0 yards/attempt ranked 6th last week.

The betting line with the Chiefs has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board) with the Raiders as +7.5 point home dogs. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 30.25 points.

Jacksonville QBs combined for a 27/33, 347, 3:1 line for a passer rating of 128.5, which would have been good for 25.6 DK fantasy points against the Chiefs last week.

Since the Raiders played on Monday night, salaries had already been released, still reflecting week 1 prices, which ultimately leaves Raider players under-priced heading into week 2. This game does have high shootout potential and Carr should be plenty busy against a Kansas City defense that ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA against Jacksonville.

Josh Allen (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300 (10.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Allen’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Allen posted a line of 24/37, 254, 1:2, and 10-38-1 on the ground with 2 fumbles lost against the Jets last week. Allen’s fantasy points of 19.96/17.96 ranked him 15th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Giants has the game total at 43.5 points with the Bills as -1.5 point road favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Giants are currently at 21 points.

Dak Prescott put up a 25/32, 405, 4:0 line and 4-12-0 on the ground against the Giants which made him the #2 fantasy QB last week.

The Giants’ defense ranked 31st against the pass and 13th against the run in DVOA. Buffalo’s “road” game shouldn’t be a factor as they just played in this same stadium and Allen’s ceiling should be enhanced as he played against the tougher New York defense last week.

Running Back

Devin Singletary (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Singletary’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/30th on DK/FD, respectively.

Singletary posted a 4-70-0 line and 5-28-0 on 6 targets (3rd highest on the team) with 48 snaps of 69 (70%) at the Jets last week. Singletary’s fantasy points of 14.8/12.3 ranked him 15th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Singletary’s price per point efficiency ranked him 10th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.

Betting line – See Josh Allen above.

The Cowboys’ RBs combined for a 26-77-1 line and 1-10-0 on 2 targets against the Giants last week.

Frank Gore posted an ineffective 11-20-0 rush line on his 28% snap share. It would be asinine to keep Singletary’s attempts in the single-digits but I suppose we’ve seen dumber things happen. It was also encouraging to see Singletary’s pass-game usage and his volume share of touches should increase at this point.

Josh Jacobs (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700 (9.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6500 (10.83% of cap). Jacobs’ upcoming salary ranks him 26th/19th on DK/FD, respectively.

Jacobs posted a 23-85-2 line and 1-28-0 on 1 target with 43 snaps of 58 (74%) against Denver last week. Jacobs’ fantasy points of 24.3/23.8 ranked him 9th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Jacobs’ price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/5th on DK/FD, respectively. Jacobs’ salary on DK actually dropped $500 this week as well.

Betting line – See Derek Carr above.

Leonard Fournette posted a 13-66-0 line and 4-28-0 on 6 targets against the Chiefs last week.

Jacobs’ 8 red zone touches led all players last week. The combined touches of Raider RBs not named “Jacobs” totaled to 3. The Raiders led the entire game so the positive script helped Jacobs usage. In what will likely be a negative script for Jacobs, passing downs may increase Jalen Richard’s usage. Kansas City’s defense ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to RBs last season. Jacobs’ usage and value looks good against Kansas City’s run defense that ranked 18th in DVOA last week.

Austin Ekeler (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Ekeler’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/6th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK.

Ekeler posted a 12-58-1 line and 6-96-2 on 7 targets (2nd on team) with 48 snaps of 64 (75%) against the Colts last week. Ekeler’s fantasy points of 39.4/36.4 ranked him 2nd/2nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Ekeler’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/1st on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Lions has the game total at 47.5 points with the Chargers as -2.5 point road favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Lions are currently at 22.5 points.

David Johnson posted an 18-82-0 line and 6-55-1 on 7 targets against the Lions last week.

The Chargers got hammered again this year with the injury bug as TE Hunter Henry (fractured knee) will miss extended time. WR Mike Williams (knee) is looking very iffy this week as well. Ekeler dominated touches over Justin Jackson (25% snap-share) last week, 18 to 7, and should be looking at a heavy workload, especially in the pass-game at Detroit.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800 (7.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.83% of cap). McLaurin’s upcoming salary ranks him 61st/50th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

McLaurin posted a 5-125-1 line on 7 targets with 62 snaps of 67 (93%) at Philadelphia last week. McLaurin’s fantasy points of 26.5/21 ranked him 11th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. McLaurin’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Cowboys has the game total at 46.5 points with Washington as +5.5 point home dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Cowboys are currently at 26 points.

Giants QBs combined for a 33/48, 319, 1:0 line against Dallas last week.

McLaurin’s average targeted air yards of 19.4 ranked him 5th for WRs last week. McLaurin provides a fast, deep-threat weapon for Washington and is a cheap, solid option for Keenum in an implied negative-script game.

Ted Ginn Jr. (NO) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000 (8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Ginn’s upcoming salary ranks him 54th/62nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Ginn posted a 7-101-0 line on 7 targets with 49 snaps of 66 (74%) against Houston last week. Ginn’s fantasy points of 20.1/13.6 ranked him 23rd/27th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Rams has the game total at 52.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Saints as +2.5 point road dogs. The Saints’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Rams are currently at 27.5 points.

Cam Newton logged a 25/38, 239, 0:1 passing line against the Rams last week.

With shootout potential on tap for the 2nd highest game total on the board, Ginn provides a cheap option to this game as Drew Brees’ WR2.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). Hockenson’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.

Hockenson posted a 6-131-1 line on 9 targets with 64 snaps of 88 (73%) at Arizona last week. Hockenson’s fantasy points of 28.1/22.1 ranked him 2nd/2nd on DK/FD for the position. Hockenson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/1st on DK/FD, respectively. Hockenson’s yards ranked him 1st and his targets and catches ranked him 2nd on the team last week.

The betting line with the Chargers has the game total at 48 points with the Lions as +2.5 point home dogs. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Chargers are currently at 25.25 points.

Colts TEs combined for a 3-31-0 line on 6 targets at the Chargers last week.

Hockenson checks in as a potential high-snap, high-target play at a great value on DK.

Darren Waller (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5400 (9% of cap). Waller’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Waller posted a 7-70-0 line on 8 targets with 58 snaps (100%) against the Rams last week. Waller’s snaps, targets, and catches led the team. Waller’s fantasy points of 14/10.5 ranked him 7th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Cook’s price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Chiefs has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board) with the Raiders as +7.5 point home dogs. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 30.25 points.

Jacksonville TEs combined for an 8-49-0 line on 9 targets against Kansas City last week.

Last season, Kansas City gave up the most fantasy points to TEs. Waller provides a cheap way to access this potential shootout game with opportunity and volume nearly guaranteed.

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