NFL Week 16 DFS Value Player Picks
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NFL Week 16: December 25 – 28, 2020

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 16.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.


Quarterback

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800 (11.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.8% of cap). Ryan’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Chiefs (13-1) has the game total at 53.5 points, with the Falcons (4-10) as +10.5 point road dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Chiefs are currently at 32 points.

Ryan posted a 34/49, 356, 3:0 passing line and 1-16-0 on the ground against the Bucs (21st vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB6 finish.

Drew Brees logged a 15/34, 234, 3:1 passing line against the Chiefs last week.

The Chiefs’ defense ranks 19th against QBs in fantasy points allowed, and 18th over the past four weeks.

The Falcons’ offense ranks 19th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Chiefs’ DST which ranks 23rd.

Ryan did show last week that it is possible for him to have a game without Julio Jones. Maybe that can happen twice? And with the largest spread on the board, Ryan should have plenty of attempts to try to keep pace, as the Falcons’ 5th worst rushing offense, this week behind Ito Smith, is unlikely to get much done on the ground.

These two teams combine for the 3rd most plays/gm. this week, unsurprisingly, as both teams are pass-happy. The pass-funnel matchups for both teams should continue this trend. With the restrictive costs of the Chiefs’ primary receiving options, if going that route, Ryan provides for a cheaper priced bring-back option.

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7600 (12.8% of cap). Mayfield’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Jets (1-13) has the game total at 47 points, with the Browns (10-4) as -9.5 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Jets are currently at 18.75 points.

Mayfield posted a 27/32, 297, 2:0 passing line and 4-11-0 on the ground at the Giants (6th vs. QBs) last week.

Jared Goff logged a 22/34, 209, 2:1 passing line and 1-9-0 on the ground against the Jets last week.

The Jets’ defense ranks 30th against QBs in fantasy points allowed, and 26th over the past four weeks.

The Browns’ offense ranks 14th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Jets’ DST which ranks 22nd.

Mayfield averaged 26.72 fantasy points over his past four games. The Jets’ DST also ranks 27th vs. WRs, and last vs. TEs, so this should be a dealer’s choice scenario for the Browns’ offense.

However, these two teams combine for the 2nd least plays/gm. this week, as both teams are run-heavy. And with the ineptitude of the Jets’ offense to offer much from their end, Mayfield will need to get there on efficiency. This a must win game for the Browns if they are to potentially win their division.

Running Back

Giovani Bernard (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800 (9.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). Bernard’s upcoming salary ranks him 29th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Texans (4-10) has the game total at 46 points with the Bengals (3-10-1) as +8 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Texans are currently at 27 points.

Bernard posted a 25-83-1 rushing line and 1-14-1 on 1 target with 38 snaps (68%) against the Steelers (2nd vs. RBs) last week.

The Colts’ RBs combined for a 21-126-1 rushing line (6.0 avg.), and 6-23-0 on 8 targets against the Texans last week.

The Texans rank 31st vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 31st over the past four weeks. The Bengals’ offense ranks last in adjusted line yards vs. the Texans’ defense which ranks 28th. The Texans’ defense also ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the run.

Bernard is coming of a season high by far 26 touch game, against of all teams, the Steelers. This type of volume is unlikely to be repeated, but the targets should be there in this negative-script scenario. The matchup doesn’t get much better. Every team to face the Bengals had at least one RB on that team put up at least 11 fantasy points on the Bengals.

Wide Receiver

Rashard Higgins (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800 (9.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.7% of cap). Higgins’ upcoming salary ranks him 27th/27th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Jets (1-13) has the game total at 47 points, with the Browns (10-4) as -9.5 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Jets are currently at 18.75 points.

Higgins posted a 4-76-0 receiving line on 5 targets with 47 snaps (73%) at the Giants (14th vs. WRs) last week.

The Rams’ WRs combined for a 13-104-1 receiving line on 15 targets against the Jets last week.

The Jets’ defense ranks 26th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 17th over the past four weeks.

Higgins’ matchup is favorable, he’s cheap, and has solidified himself as the clear-cut WR2 option in Cleveland.

Chad Hansen (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400 (8.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Hansen’s upcoming salary ranks him 34th/30th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bengals (3-10-1) has the game total at 46 points with the Texans (4-10) as -8 point road dogs. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Bengals are currently at 19 points.

Hansen posted a 2-55-1 receiving line on 3 targets with 63 snaps (91%) at Indianapolis (13th vs. WRs) last week.

The Steelers’ WRs combined for a 15-126-1 receiving line on 31 targets at Cincinnati last week.

The Bengals’ defense ranks 14th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 3rd over the past four weeks (vs. Pittsburgh, Dallas, Miami, and the Giants).

RB David Johnson’s 11 targets actually led the team, but this is highly likely an outlier circumstance since prior to last week, his target high for the year is 4. Deshaun Watson WR’s are never not in play.

Tight End

Cole Kmet (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Kmet’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Jaguars (1-13) has the game total at 47 points with the Bears (7-7) as -7.5 point road favorites. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 27.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 19.75 points.

Kmet put up a 2-12-0 receiving line on 2 targets with a 64 snaps (100%) at Minnesota (14th vs. TEs) last week.

Mark Andrews posted a 5-66-1 receiving line on 5 targets against the Jaguars last week.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks 23rd vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 18th over the past four weeks.

The Bears’ pass-game took a backseat to the David Montgomery show, as Montgomery’s 32 carries dwarfed Mitchell Trubisky’s pass attempts (21). This week could be another heavy Montgomery week, but if the Bears go more balanced, positional matchups are favorable for the Bears across the board.

Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Goedert’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cowboys (5-9) has the game total at 49.5 points with the Eagles (4-9-1) as -2 point road favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Cowboys are currently at 23.75 points.

Goedert put up a 4-39-0 receiving line on 8 targets (team high) with a 73 snaps (88%) at Arizona (6th vs. TEs) last week.

49ers TEs combined for a 4-46-1 receiving line on 7 targets at Dallas last week.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 12th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 4th over the past four weeks.

Goedert has averaged 7 targets and 4 catches in Jalen Hurts’ two starts. With Hurts under center, the Eagles’ pass-game has been elevated overall, and Goedert has been Hurts’ highest targeted option thus far.