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NFL Week 16 DFS Value Player Picks Oct 2018
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NFL Week 16: December 23 – 25, 2017

We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 16.

Salary ranks are based on the main slate (12 Sunday games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Drew Stanton (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Stanton’s upcoming salary ranks him 36th/last on DK/FD, respectively for the position. HC Arians has benched Blaine Gabbert and Stanton will get the start.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 40 points with the Cardinals as -3.5 point home favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Giants are currently at 18.25 points.

The Giants rank last in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 25th in DVOA against the pass. The Giants also rank 31st in pass yards allowed with 271.3/gm and 28th in points allowed with 25.4/gm. Nick Foles dropped a 24/38, 237, 4:0 line at New York last week.

In Stanton’s two starts this season, he’s averaged 15.1 fantasy points, which would cover value, but offers little ceiling. He does get an optimum matchup and could provide a floor if punting the position this week.

Jared Goff (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Goff’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Goff posted a 14/21, 120, 2:1 line at Seattle last week.

The betting lines with the Titans has the game total at 47 points with the Rams as -6.5 point road favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 26.75 points and the Titans are currently at 20.25 points.

The Titans rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 24th in DVOA against the pass. The Titans also rank 25th in pass yards allowed with 242.6/gm and 18th in points allowed with 22.8/gm. Jimmy Garoppolo put up a 31/43, 381, 1:0 line against the Titans last week.

The Rams (10-4) need a win to clinch the NFC West division and the Titans (8-6) are still alive for a wildcard spot. Goff didn’t have to do much last week as Los Angeles blew out Seattle early. Rams RBs combined for a 41-241-3 ground line as Los Angeles dominated time of possession at over 60%. The offensive game script for the Rams should be more balanced this week.

Matthew Stafford (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200, FanDuel (FD) – 7900. Stafford’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Stafford posted a 25/33, 237, 2:0 line against Chicago last week.

The betting lines with the Bengals has the game total at 43.5 points with the Lions as -5 point road favorites. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Bengals are currently at 19.25 points.

The Bengals rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 18th in DVOA against the pass. The Bengals also rank 8th in pass yards allowed with 214/gm and 15th in points allowed with 21.8/gm. Case Keenum put up a 20/23, 236, 2:0 line against the Bengals last week.

The Lions (8-6) are vying for a wildcard spot while the injury-depleted Bengals (5-9) appear to have quit. There has been speculation of late that HC Lewis and his staff may not be returning next season. The Bengals are in a prime spot to be attacked, and Stafford shouldn’t have any problems obliging them.

Running Back

James White (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. White’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/51st on DK/FD, respectively. White posted a line of 2-8-0 on 3 targets against Pittsburgh last week.

The betting lines with the Bills has the game total at 47 points with the Patriots as -12 point (widest on the board) home favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 29.5 points and the Bills are currently at 16.5 points.

The Bills rank last in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 28th in DVOA against the run. The Bills also rank 25th in rush yards allowed with 122/gm and 16th in points allowed with 21.9/gm. Kenyan Drake put up a 16-78-1 line and 6-35-0 on 11 targets against the Bills last week.

Rex Burkhead (knee) exited last week with a knee sprain and isn’t expected back until the playoffs. Chris Hogan (shoulder) is questionable. Were Hogan to miss this week, White should see an increase in market share. Last week New England RBs posted snap ratios of: Dion Lewis (55%), James White (33%), and Rex Burkhead (27%). White should assume the majority of Burkhead’s passing volume. Lewis’ role should remain the same. A big indicator of this will be if Mike Gillislee is activated this week. Gillislee has been a healthy scratch for weeks, but his possible activation would indicate he would resume his goal-line role which he had earlier in the season. Gillislee has no role in the passing game.

Buffalo is strong against the pass and weak against RBs. The Bills held Tom Brady scoreless with an interception in week 13. Buffalo’s defensive DVOA metrics against offensive skill players in the pass rank the worst against RBs (18th). The positive matchup should funnel work White’s way, but of course, we are talking about New England.
UPDATE: White (ankle) is expected to miss this week. Fire up Dion Lewis or Gillislee for super cheap.

CJ Anderson (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Anderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Anderson posted a line of 30-158-0 at Indianapolis last week.

The betting lines with the Redskins has the game total at 47 points with the Broncos as +3.5 road dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points and the Redskins are currently at 22 points.

The Redskins rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 22nd in DVOA against the run. The Redskins also rank 28th in rush yards allowed with 123.4/gm and 29th in points allowed with 25.6/gm. Arizona RBs combined for a 27-106-0 line and 4-22-0 on 11 targets against the Redskins last week.

Washington (6-8) and Denver (5-9) are both done so neither team has a post-season narrative advantage. Anderson has averaged 24.3 touches and 113.6 scrimmage yards over his past three games as he is once again Denver’s primary back. Washington is tougher against the pass as opposed to the run, and with one of Paxton Lynch/Brock Osweiler getting the nod, Denver would be wise to give Anderson as much run as possible.

Wide Receiver

Keelan Cole (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Cole’s upcoming salary ranks him 30th/41st on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Cole posted a 7-186-1 line on a team high 9 targets against Houston last week. Cole’s fantasy points of 34.6/28.1 ranked him 1st on both DK/FD for the position. Cole’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the 49ers has the game total at 42 points with the Jags as -4 point road favorites. The Jags’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the 49ers are currently at 19 points.

The 49ers rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 31st in DVOA against the pass. Marcus Mariota posted a 23/33, 241, 2:0 line at San Francisco last week.

With Marqise Lee (ankle) expected to be out until the playoffs, Cole’s role should be steady as he logs starter snap ratios comparable to Dede Westbrook. Cole has notched a TD in his past three games, which are also his total TDs on the season thus far. The Jags (10-4) will clinch the AFC South with a win and should go full throttle all around in this one.

Damiere Byrd (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Byrd’s upcoming salary ranks him 50th/54th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Byrd posted a 3-25-2 line on 4 targets against Green Bay last week. Byrd’s fantasy points of 17.5/16 ranked him 16th/12th on DK/FD for the position. Byrd’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Bucs has the game total at 46.5 points with the Panthers as -10 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Bucs are currently at 18.25 points.

The Bucs rank last in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 29th in DVOA against the pass.

Byrd logs the 2nd highest snap ratio for Carolina WRs behind Devin Funchess. His approximate 5 target per game trend can bring a scary low floor but he is a high risk/high reward punt with a great matchup against the league’s worst pass defense.

Tight End

Cameron Brate (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Brate’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Brate posted a 4-49-0 line on 5 targets against Atlanta last week.

The betting lines with the Panthers has the game total at 46.5 points with the Bucs as +10 point road dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 18.25 points and the Panthers are currently at 28.25 points.

The Panthers rank 13th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 4th in DVOA against TEs.

With TE O.J. Howard (ankle) likely to hit IR soon and WR DeSean Jackson (ankle) likely out this week, Brate is in play from a volume boost perspective. Brate is Jameis Winston’s top red zone target as Brate has 5 red zone TDs, which is tied for 5th among all TEs. Brate posted a 4-64-0 line on 5 targets against the Panthers in week 8, but now this line seems like a solid floor with red zone TD upside. The implied game script should have Winston airing it out often in this game.

Eric Ebron (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Ebron’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Ebron posted a 5-33-1 line on a team high 7 targets against Chicago last week.

The betting lines with the Bengals has the game total at 43.5 points with the Lions as -5 point road favorites. The Lions’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Bengals are currently at 19.25 points.

The Bengals rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 30th in DVOA against TEs.

Ebron has been getting some run of late, as he has averaged 9 targets, 7.5 catches, and 63.5 yards over his past two games, with a score. Even without a score, if these averages hold, Ebron would hit value. He would make for a plausible stacking option with Matthew Stafford.


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