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NFL Week 16 DFS Defense Value Picks Oct 2018
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NFL Week 16: December 23 – 25, 2017

We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 16.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate (Sunday only).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Defense

Detroit Lions – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Detroit’s salary ranks them 11th/6th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK. Five defenses are priced at $4600 on FD.

The betting lines with the Bengals has the game total at 43 points with the Lions as -5 point road favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Lions are currently at 24 points.

The Bengals rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and 21st in overall offense DVOA. The Bengals rank last in yards with 268.9/gm. and 29th in points scored with 16.6/gm. Cincinnati also allows the 13th most sacks with 36, and gives up the 9th (tied) most total turnovers with 21. The Vikings tallied 3 sacks, 2 picks, a defensive TD, and held the Bengals to 7 points last week.

The Lions are tied at 22nd in sacks with 28, 3rd in turnovers created with 27, and rank 28th in overall defense DVOA. The Lions also rank 27th in yards allowed with 362.3/gm. and 25th in points allowed with 24.2/gm. The Lions recorded 2 sacks, 3 picks, and held Chicago to 10 points last week.

In their past three games (all losses), the Bengals (5-9) have a scoring average of 11.3 points/gm. With the Lions (8-6) still in the wild card hunt, they will be motivated against an imploding Bengals team that appears to have mailed it in.

Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Kansas City’s salary ranks them 6th/11th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD. Three defenses are priced at $4500 on FD.

The betting lines with the Dolphins has the game total at 44 points with the Chiefs as -10.5 point home favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 16.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 27.25 points.

The Dolphins rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and 27th in overall offense DVOA. The Dolphins rank 28th in yards with 301.6/gm. and 26th in points scored with 18/gm. Miami also allows the 16th (tied) most sacks with 32, gives up the 3rd most total turnovers with 26, and tosses up the 2nd most interceptions with 20. The Bills tallied 3 sacks, 3 picks, and held the Dolphins to 16 points last week.

The Chiefs are tied at 24th in sacks with 26, 10th (tied) in turnovers created with 21, and rank last in overall defense DVOA. The Chiefs also rank 28th in yards allowed with 368.6/gm. and 14th in points allowed with 21.6/gm. The Chiefs recorded 2 sacks, 3 picks, recovered a fumble, and held the Chargers to 13 points last week.

The Chiefs (8-6) are vying for the AFC West division title, while the Dolphins (6-8), who are technically still alive for a wild card spot, are just about done. As heavy dogs, playing in Kansas City where the Chiefs currently have a 5-2 home record, the Dolphins could find themselves in an ugly scenario, especially if they fall behind early.

Carolina Panthers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. Carolina’s salary ranks them 8th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

The betting lines with the Bucs has the game total at 44 points with the Panthers as -10 point home favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 18.25 points and the Panthers are currently at 28.25 points.

The Bucs rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and 16th in overall offense DVOA. The Bucs rank 11th in yards with 354.9/gm. and 20th (tied) in points scored with 20.4/gm. Tampa Bay also allows the 16th (tied) most sacks with 32 and gives up the 9th (tied) most total turnovers with 21. The Falcons logged 2 sacks and a fumble recovery in Tampa Bay last week.

The Panthers rank 3rd (tied) in sacks with 43, 18th (tied) in turnovers created with 18, and 9th in overall defense DVOA. The Panthers also rank 5th in yards allowed with 307.9/gm. and 11th in points allowed with 20.4/gm. The Panthers recorded 3 sacks, 3 picks, and recovered a fumble against Green Bay last week.

The Panthers (10-4) are vying for the NFC South division title, while the Bucs (4-10) may be without WR DeSean Jackson (ankle), TE O.J. Howard (ankle), and RG J.R. Sweezy (ankle). All three players were spotted with walking boots post-game, and especially on a short week, appear to be on the wrong side of iffy. The Panthers logged 3 sacks, 2 picks, a fumble recovery, and held the Bucs to 3 points in their previous week 8 meeting.


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