NFL Week 16: December 22nd- 26th, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 16.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Buffalo Bills – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Buffalo’s salary ranks them 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Dolphins at 42 points with the Bills as -3.5 point home favorites.
Buffalo’s defense ranks 27 in rushing yards allowed (124.4), 8th in passing yards allowed (224.8), and 14th (tied) in points scored (22.4). Buffalo ranks 20th (tied) in takeaways with 17 and 3rd in sacks with 38. Baltimore also ranks 11th against QBs (15.78), 23rd against RBs (19.71), 8th against WRs (21.24), and 10th against TEs (6.33) in fantasy points allowed. Buffalo recorded five sacks and held Cleveland to 13 points last week.
Miami’s offense ranks 16th in rush yards gained (106.3), 27th in pass yards gained (218.7), and 17th in points scored (22.5). Miami also ranks 15th (tied) in giveaways with 20 and gives up the 18th most sacks (tied) with 30.
QB Matt Moore will be making his second start for the injured Ryan Tannehill (knee). Moore connected for four TDs on 18 pass attempts against a Jets team that has long packed it in, but this production won’t be sustainable. Buffalo will be looking to play spoiler in this second division game and won’t quit on Rex.
Green Bay Packers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Green Bay’s salary ranks them 7th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Vikings at 43 points with the Packers as -6.5 point home favorites.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 24th in passing yards allowed (258.8), 10th in rushing yards allowed (96.1), and 22nd (tied) in points allowed (24.2). Green Bay ranks tied for 10th in takeaways with 22 and tied for 9th in sacks with 33. Green Bay also ranks 1st against QBs (10.63), 5th against RBs (11.83), 14th against WRs (21.13), and 6th against TEs (4.83) in fantasy points allowed. Green Bay logged a sack and four turnovers in Chicago last week.
Minnesota’s offense ranks last in rush yards gained (70.6), 21st in pass yards gained (230.9), and 25th (tied) in points scored (18.9). Minnesota also ranks 26th (tied) in giveaways with 13 and gives up the 10th most sacks. Indianapolis recorded five sacks and forced three turnovers while holding the Vikings to six points last week.
Even with Adrian Peterson back, no running back will be gaining anything behind this O-Line. The Packers are still on track for their “must win out” mission, and the defense should have plenty of opportunities to roll on Sam Bradford and co.
San Diego Chargers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. San Diego’s salary ranks them 5th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Browns at 44 points with the Chargers as -6 point road favorites.
San Diego’s defense ranks 9th in rushing yards allowed (95.7), 22nd in passing yards allowed (257.0), and 29th in points scored (26.1). San Diego ranks 2nd in takeaways with 27 and 27th (tied) in sacks with 25. San Diego also ranks 17th against QBs (16.45), 22nd against RBs (19.73), 16th against WRs (21.57), and 21st against TEs (7.46) in fantasy points allowed. San Diego recorded two sacks and two turnovers against Oakland last week.
Cleveland’s offense ranks 25th in rush yards gained (96.9), 28th in pass yards gained (209.4), and 31st in points scored (15.7). Cleveland also ranks 11th (tied) in most giveaways with 21 and gives up the most sacks, by a margin of 12, with 53.
San Diego gets their turn against Cleveland, as they should extend the Browns winless streak. Robert Griffin III has a 0:2 TD:INT ratio in three appearances this season but does have two rushing TDs. Cleveland gives up the third most fantasy points to defenses and San Diego should potentially have ample opportunities to exploit this “offense”.