NFL Week 16 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 16 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 16: December 22 – 24, 2018

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our value DFS defense picks for week 16.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate (Sunday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Defense

Atlanta Falcons – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2300, FanDuel (FD) – 3300. The Falcons’ salary ranks them 13th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Panthers (6-8) has the game total at 47 points with the Falcons (5-9) as +2.5 point road dogs. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Falcons are currently at 22.25 points. The game total had been bet down 3.5 points and the Falcons gained a point since the open line in this one.

The Panthers have allowed an average of 9.67 fantasy points to opposing defenses over their past three games. During this stretch, the Panthers have given up an average of 3 sacks and 2.33 turnovers per game. The Saints’ defense logged 4 sacks, a fumble recovery, an interception, and held the Panthers to 9 points, good for 12 fantasy points.

The Falcons’ defense ranks 16th in adjusted sack rate, and that’s about the only metric where they don’t suck this season. However, other than containing Christian McCaffrey, this defense shouldn’t have much to contend with in this matchup. CMC received a massive 37.9% target share from Cam on short dump-offs last week with the next highest Panther receiver getting 13.8%. The Falcons should very well know what to expect. The Falcons’ defense logged 7 sacks, a fumble recovery, an interception returned for a TD, and held the Cardinals to 14 points, good for 20 fantasy points as the top scoring defense last week.

Cam Newton’s shoulder has been problematic and this isn’t going to change. His yards/attempt has decreased in four consecutive weeks with a 4:8 TD to turnover ratio during this span. Cam hasn’t scored a TD in two consecutive games. Cam’s status is not written in stone as of yet, but Taylor Heinicke is the backup option. Either way, the Falcons have a decent shot for production as long as they don’t allow CMC to kill them.

Update:
Cam is out for the season and Heinicke will step in under center. The line moved where the Falcons are now -3.5 road favorites.

New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500, FanDuel (FD) – 4300. The Patriots’ salary ranks them 11th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bills (5-9) has the game total at 45 points with the Patriots (9-5) as -12.5 point home favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 16.25 points and the Patriots are currently at 28.75 points.

The Bills rank last in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. The Bills give up the 12th (tied) most sacks with 40 and the 2nd most turnovers with 28. The Lions’ defense managed 1 sack and held the Bills to 14 points last week.

The Patriots’ defense ranks 10th (tied) in takeaways with 22. Over their past four games, the Patriots’ defense averaged 7.75 fantasy points. The Patriots’ defense logged 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, and held the Steelers to 17 points last week, good for 7 fantasy points. They also scored 20 fantasy points at Buffalo back in week 8 but against QB Derek Anderson.

Coming off two consecutive losses, the Pats return home as big favorites and will clinch the division with a win. The Lions held Josh Allen to 16 rush yards last week, his season low. Expect the Pats to try to implement a similar scheme to force Allen to throw, leaving New England’s defense in a positive spot to make plays.

Dallas Cowboys – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600, FanDuel (FD) – 3700. The Cowboys’ salary ranks them 10th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bucs (5-9) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Cowboys (8-6) as -7 point home favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 19.75 points and the Cowboys are currently at 26.75 points.

The Bucs rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. The Bucs rank 16th (tied) in sacks given up with 37 and last in turnovers with 32. The Ravens’ defense logged 1 sack, 1 interception, and held the Bucs to 12 points last week.

After getting rolled on hard by the Colts last week, the Cowboys are in a nice bounce-back spot as they vie for their division title. Jameis Winston averages nearly 8 less fantasy points on the road. The projected game flow sets up for a solid matchup for the Cowboys.

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