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NFL Week 15 DFS Value Player Picks Oct 2018
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NFL Week 15: December 14 – 18, 2017

We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 15.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thurs – Mon).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Nick Foles (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Foles’ upcoming salary ranks him 21st/last on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Foles posted a 6/10, 42, 0:0 line and 1-9-0 on the ground at the Los Angeles Rams last week. Coming in for the injured Carson Wentz (ACL), Foles will get the start this week. Foles holds a career passer rating of 88.1.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 40 points with the Eagles as -7.5 point road favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Giants are currently at 16.5 points.

The Giants rank last in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 25th in DVOA against the pass. The Giants also rank 31st in pass yards allowed with 265.7/gm and 27th in points allowed with 24.7/gm. Dak Prescott put up a 20/30, 332, 3:0 line at New York last week.

Zach Ertz (concussion) has not yet cleared the protocol, but should have enough time to clear it this week. The Eagles (11-2) currently have the best conference record and are vying for that first round bye. Foles steps into a situation where the matchup doesn’t get much better than this, has all his skill position weapons (Ertz pending), and is dirt cheap.
UPDATE: Ertz has cleared the protocol and is expected to be in play this week.

Blake Bortles (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Bortles’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Bortles posted an 18/27, 268, 2:0 line against Seattle last week. Bortles’ fantasy points of 18.5 ranked him 13th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Bortles’ price per point efficiency ranked him 11th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Texans has the game total at 39 points with the Jags as -10.5 point home favorites. The Jags’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Texans are currently at 14.25 points.

The Texans rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 18th in DVOA against the pass. The Texans also rank 26th in pass yards allowed with 241.8/gm and 29th (tied) in points allowed with 25.8/gm. Jimmy Garoppolo put up a 30/33, 334, 1:1 line at Houston last week.

Bortles has played reasonably well of late, having averaged 23.9 fantasy points (DK scoring) over his past three games. Bortles gets a good matchup and brings a solid floor this week.

Running Back

Jay Ajayi (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000, FanDuel (FD) – 6100. Ajayi’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/28th on DK/FD, respectively. Ajayi posted a 15-78-0 line and 1-2-0 on 2 targets against the Rams last week. Ajayi’s fantasy points of 9/8.5 ranked him 34th/31st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 40 points with the Eagles as -7.5 point road favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Giants are currently at 16.5 points.

The Giants rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 25th in DVOA against the run. The Giants also rank 31st in rush yards allowed with 130/gm and 27th in points allowed with 24.7/gm. Dallas RBs combined for a 25-109-1 line and 9-139-1 on 9 targets against the Giants last week.

Ajayi logged a 47% snap ratio with Corey Clement next with 30% and then LeGarrette Blount with 16% last week. Ajayi’s 16 touches matched the touches of Clement and Blount, combined. The Eagles rank 2nd in rush yards with 143/gm.

With Foles under center, the Eagles may lean heavy on their run game, which gets a great matchup against the Giants. Ajayi is part of a committee in the backfield, but he has led the Eagle RBs in snap % and touches the past two weeks. If the usage remains consistent, Ajayi’s volume should be adequate for his cheap price.

Kenyan Drake (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Drake’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Drake posted a 25-114-0 line and 5-79-0 on 6 targets against New England last week. Drake’s fantasy points of 27.3/21.8 ranked him 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Drake’s price per point efficiency ranked him 10th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.

Betting lines – This game in Buffalo does not have posted lines, as the status of QB Tyrod Taylor (knee) is currently unknown.

The Bills rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 24th in DVOA against the run. The Bills also rank 27th in rush yards allowed with 123.7/gm and 16th in points allowed with 22.3/gm. Colts RBs combined for a 43-153-0 line and 3-31-0 on 4 targets against the Bills last week.

Drake has been on fire, amassing 56 touches, including 8 catches, 334 total scrimmage yards, and a TD over his past two games. Buffalo’s defensive weakness is against the run, and although it will be cold, the weather should be much better this Sunday. Drake’s matchup and price tag are both ideal.

Wide Receiver

Dede Westbrook (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Westbrook’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/49th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Westbrook posted a 5-81-1 line on a team high 8 targets against Seattle last week. Westbrook’s fantasy points of 19.1/16.6 ranked him 16th/14th on DK/FD for the position. Westbrook’s price per point efficiency ranked him 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Texans has the game total at 39 points with the Jags as -10.5 point home favorites. The Jags’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Texans are currently at 14.25 points.

The Texans rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 18th in DVOA against the pass.

Westbrook has averaged 9 targets per game over the past three games, leading all Jacksonville WRs in this category during this span. Westbrook will have a better matchup this week, is still dirt cheap, and makes for a solid stacking option with Bortles.

Robert Woods (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Woods’ upcoming salary ranks him 28th on both DK/FD, respectively for the position. Woods (shoulder) is expected to return this week after having missed the prior three weeks.

The betting lines with the Seahawks has the game total at 48 points with the Rams as +2 point road dogs. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the Seahawks are currently at 25 points.

The Seahawks rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 15th in DVOA against the pass.

Woods is the Rams WR1 and his return against an injury depleted Seattle secondary provides a solid floor option with upside at a cheap price.

Alshon Jeffery (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Jeffery’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/15th on both DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK. Jeffery posted a 5-52-1 line on 11 targets against the Rams last week. Jeffery’s fantasy points of 16.2/13.7 ranked him 22nd on both DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 40 points with the Eagles as -7.5 point road favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Giants are currently at 16.5 points.

The Giants rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 25th in DVOA against the pass.

Alshon has averaged 8.25 targets over the past four games since the bye and has scored three TDs during this span. Alshon leads the team in targets, and should remain the top WR with Foles under center.

Tight End

Jesse James (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. James’ upcoming salary ranks him 28th/20th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. James posted a 10-97-0 line on 12 targets (all season highs sans TDs) against Baltimore last week. James’ fantasy points of 19.7/14.7 ranked him 2nd/3rd on DK/FD for the position. James’ price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Patriots has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board) with the Steelers as +3 point home dogs. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Patriots are currently at 28 points.

The Patriots rank 13th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 9th in DVOA against TEs. Miami TEs combined for a 4-38-0 line on 6 targets against New England last week.

New England’s defensive modus operandi is to attempt to eliminate the best weapon of opposing offenses as their top priority. However, there are many weapons on Pittsburgh’s offense, especially with Juju Smith-Schuster’s return this week from suspension. The last priority for New England should be James, who has shown that if the opportunity presents itself, Big Ben will look his way. This game has shootout potential, and James is cheap. There are many mouths to feed in Pittsburgh’s offense, but James may be worth a shot if looking to punt the position this week.

Vernon Davis (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Davis’ upcoming salary ranks him 15th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Davis posted a 2-26-1 line on 7 targets (team high) against the Chargers last week. Davis’ fantasy points of 10.6/9.6 ranked him 10th/12th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Cardinals has the game total at 43.5 points with the Redskins as -4.5 point home favorites. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Cardinals are currently at 19.5 points.

The Cardinals rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 6th in DVOA against TEs. Delanie Walker put up a 5-42-0 line on 9 targets at Arizona last week.

Jordan Reed (hamstring) has been placed on IR. With CB Patrick Peterson on one of Jamison Crowder or Josh Doctson, Davis should be a top two target volume option for Kirk Cousins. Davis has put up pedestrian stat lines in recent weeks, but he logs a near 90% snap rate, and Cousins will need to throw it to someone not covered by Peterson.


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