NFL Week 15 DFS Value Player Picks
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NFL Week 15: December 17 – 21, 2020

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 15.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.


Quarterback

Jalen Hurts (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6900 (11.5% of cap). Hurts’ upcoming salary ranks him 11th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on FD.

The betting line with the Cardinals (7-6) has the game total at 49.5 points, with the Eagles (4-8-1) as +6.5 point road dogs. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Cardinals are currently at 28 points.

Hurts posted a 17/30, 167, 1:0 passing line and 18-106-0 (1 lost fumble) on the ground against the Saints (4th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB9 finish.

The Giants’ QBs combined for a pathetic 13/24, 89, 0:0 passing line with 2 fumbles lost against the Cardinals last week.

The Cardinals’ defense ranks 13th against QBs in fantasy points allowed, and 5th over the past four weeks.

The Eagles’ offense ranks last in adjusted sack rate vs. the Cardinals’ DST which ranks 10th.

Hurts had an impressive debut in the stunning upset of the Saints last week, showing serious rushing chops, which provides him with an elevated floor. The matchup isn’t great, but is easier than last week.

Running Back

Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100 (10.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.7% of cap). Wilson’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cowboys (4-9) has the game total at 45 points with the 49ers (5-8) as -3 point road favorites. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Cowboys are currently at 21 points.

Wilson posted an 11-31-1 rushing line and 1-13-0 on 3 targets with 39 snaps (48%) against Washington (3rd vs. RBs) last week.

The Bengals’ RBs combined for a 25-89-0 rushing line, and 8-38-0 on 8 targets against the Cowboys last week.

The Cowboys rank 26th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 29th over the past four weeks. The 49ers’ offense ranks 28th in adjusted line yards vs. the Cowboys’ defense which ranks last. The Cowboys’ defense also ranks 27th in DVOA vs. the run.

Wilson and Raheem Mostert (ankle) have been splitting snaps and touches at a near even split of late, however, Mostert is in realistic danger of missing this week. His MRI results are currently pending.

With Jerick McKinnon now “too worn out” according to HC Shanahan and Tevin Coleman a bench afterthought, Wilson could assume the lions’ share of the backfield workload, in a great matchup, but still at his RB2 split workload price.

Kenyon Drake (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6600 (11% of cap). Drake’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Eagles (4-8-1) has the game total at 49.5 points, with the Cardinals (7-6) as -6.5 point home favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 28 points and the Eagles are currently at 21.5 points.

Drake posted a 23-80-1 rushing line and 1-10-0 on 1 targets with 44 snaps (56%) at the Giants (24th vs. RBs) last week.

The Saints’ RBs combined for a 15-63-1 rushing line and 8-38-0 on 11 targets against the Eagles last week.

The Eagles’ DST ranks 9th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 21st over the past four weeks. The Cardinals’ O-line ranks 23rd in adjusted line yards vs. the Eagles’ defense which ranks 5th.

With Kyler Murray seemingly over his shoulder injury with double-digit rush attempts for the first time in four weeks, Drake’s target totals have correspondingly dropped down to pre-Kyler injury amounts. However, Drake brings solid goal-line TD equity, as his 8 rushing TDs from inside the 5-yard line leads the NFL.

Wide Receiver

Lynn Bowden Jr. (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Bowden’s upcoming salary ranks him 53rd/62nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Patriots (6-7) has the game total at 41.5 points with the Dolphins (8-5) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 22 points and the Patriots are currently at 19.5 points.

Bowden posted a 7-82-0 receiving line on 9 targets and 1-2-0 rushing with 59 snaps (71%) against the Chiefs (2nd vs. WRs) last week. Bowden’s snaps, targets, catches, and yards led the team.

The Rams’ WRs combined for a 11-71-1 receiving line on 15 targets against the Patriots last week.

The Patriots’ defense ranks 5th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 8th over the past four weeks.

Both Devante Parker (hamstring) and Jakeem Grant (hamstring) exited last week’s game unable to return. Both are questionable this week. TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder) also exited late in the game, and is currently expected to miss this week, although not yet ruled out. These are the Dolphins’ top 3 receiving options, and all three could potentially miss/be limited this week.

SWR Bowden could step in as the Dolphins’ new top receiving option at a near minimum salary. If all three aforementioned were to miss, Mack Hollins also comes into play as a similarly priced option.

Chad Hansen (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Hansen’s upcoming salary ranks him 40th/34rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Colts (9-4) has the game total at 51 points with the Texans (4-9) as -7 point road dogs. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 22 points and the Colts are currently at 29 points.

Hansen posted a 7-56-0 receiving line on 7 targets with 53 snaps (80%) against the Bears (4th vs. WRs) last week. Hansen’s snaps, targets, catches, and yards led the team.

The Raiders’ WRs combined for a 13-156-1 receiving line on 19 targets against the Colts last week.

The Colts’ defense ranks 9th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 22nd over the past four weeks.

WR Brandin Cooks (neck) is expected to return this week, which should have Hansen starting in three-receiver sets. Hansen should see his full-time role continue. Hansen did drop 18.1 fantasy points on the Colts in his debut game two weeks ago.

Tight End

Cole Kmet (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Kmet’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Vikings (6-7) has the game total at 47 points with the Bears (6-7) as +3 point road dogs. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 22 points and the Vikings are currently at 25 points.

Kmet put up a 4-41-0 receiving line on 7 targets (2nd on team) with a 51 snaps (85%) against the Texans (21st vs. TEs) last week.

Bucs’ TEs combined for a 2-11-1 receiving line on 4 targets against the Vikings last week.

The Vikings’ defense ranks 16th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 14th over the past four weeks.

Despite Kmet getting more snaps (54 to 34) and targets (7 to 4) again, frustratingly Jimmy Graham was the one to get the Bears’ TE score last week.

Kmet still offers a viable volume floor at a value price.