NFL Week 15 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 15: December 17 – 21, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 15.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines and weather projections are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Defense
Washington Football Team – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.7% of cap). The WFT’s salary ranks them 16th/9th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Seahawks (9-4) has the game total at 44.5 points, with the WFT (6-7) as +5.5 point home dogs. The WFT’s implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Seahawks are currently at 25 points.
The WFT’s defense registered 4 sacks, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 defensive TDs, and gave up 15 offensive points at San Francisco last week, good for the DST1 finish.
The Jets’ defense logged 1 sack, 1 interception, and gave up 40 offensive points at Seattle last week.
The WFT’s defense ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Seahawks offense which ranks 30th.
The Seahawks rank 12th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed while the WFT’s defense ranks 6th in fantasy points/gm. The WFT’s defense also ranks 4th in DVOA.
WFT’s trench matchup and DK price combo do make for a viable play this week.
Seattle Seahawks – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). The Seahawks’ salary ranks them 8th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line – same as above.
The Seahawks’ defense logged 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 3 offensive points against the Jets last week.
The 49ers’ DST registered 2 sacks, 1 interception, and gave up 11 offensive points against Washington last week.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks 15th in adjusted sack rate vs. Washington’s offense which ranks 24th. Washington also allows the 2nd highest pressure rate (29.3%) to opposing DSTs.
Washington ranks 19th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, while the Seahawks’ DST ranks 14th in fantasy points/gm.
QB Alex Smith (calf) is currently questionable. Even were he to start, his hampered mobility with the trench mismatch, sets up for a potential scenario where he may not finish. The splits with Dwayne Haskins in are drastically worse for Washington.
Three of the four highest Seahawks’ DST scores have come in the past three weeks.
UPDATE:
QB Alex Smith (calf) has been ruled out. RB Antonio Gibson (turf toe) is doubtful.
Tennessee Titans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3900 (6.5% of cap). The Titans’ salary ranks them 5th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Lions (5-8) has the game total at 51.5 points, with the Titans (9-4) as -10.5 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 31 points and the Lions are currently at 20.5 points.
The Titans’ recorded 1 interception, 1 blocked kick, and gave up 10 offensive points at Jacksonville last week.
The Packers’ defense logged 4 sacks, and allowed 24 offensive points to the Lions last week.
The Titans’ defense ranks last in adjusted sack rate vs. the Lions’ offense which ranks 22nd.
The Lions rank 20th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed, while the Titans’ defense ranks 22nd in fantasy points/gm.
QB Matthew Stafford (ribs) has not yet been ruled out after leaving the game in the 4th quarter last week, but is currently expected not to play. This leaves non-mobile backup Chase Daniel under center, with the betting line correspondingly bumped 2 points since yesterday. With the Titans vying for playoff seeding and the Lions caged in the cellar, opportunities against Daniel in a negative-script will be there.
UPDATE:
C Frank Ragnow (throat) is ruled out. This potentially could be a pretty big hit for the Lions.
