NFL Week 15: December 14 – 18, 2017
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 15.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
New Orleans Saints – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. New Orleans’ salary ranks them 2nd/9th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD.
The betting lines with the Jets has the game total at 47 points with the Saints as -16 point (2nd widest line of the season) home favorites. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 15.5 points and the Saints are currently at 31.5 points.
The Jets rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to defenses and 22nd in overall offense DVOA. New York ranks 23rd (tied) in yards with 311.4/gm. and 20th in points scored with 20.5/gm. New York is also tied for the 7th most sacks allowed with 39, and gives up the 11th (tied) most total turnovers with 19. The Broncos tallied 4 sacks, a pick, a fumble recovery, and shut out the Jets, to finish as the #1 defense last week.
At this point, all New York historical offensive metrics can be thrown out, as they are not accurately relevant to their current situation moving forward.
The Saints are tied at 11th in sacks with 34, 11th in takeaways with 18, and rank 6th in overall defense DVOA. The Saints also rank 15th in yards allowed with 331.1/gm. and 10th (tied) in points allowed with 20.2/gm. The Saints recorded a sack and three picks at Atlanta last week.
The bad news for the Jets is that QB Josh McCown broke his non-throwing hand in the 3rd quarter last week and is now out for the season. Bryce Petty stepped in and put up a line of 2/9, 14, 0:0 for a passer rating of 39.6 and will get the start this week.
FD released their week 15 salaries before the McCown info was known, thus creating the price discrepancy vs. DK. Expect New Orleans to be the chalk defensive play on FD this week.
Washington Redskins – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Washington’s salary ranks them 15th/12th on DK/FD, respectively..
The betting lines with the Cardinals has the game total at 43.5 points with the Redskins as -4.5 point home favorites. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Redskins are currently at 24 points.
The Cardinals rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and 27th in overall offense DVOA. Arizona ranks 20th in yards with 322.5/gm. and 25th in points scored with 17.8/gm. Arizona also gives up the 2nd most sacks allowed with 44, and gives up the 7th (tied) most total turnovers with 20. Tennessee racked up 8 sacks and held Arizona to 12 points last week.
The Redskins rank 16th (tied) in sacks with 31, 15th (tied) in takeaways with 17, and rank 15th in overall defense DVOA. Washington also ranks 24th in yards allowed with 351.5/gm and last in points allowed with 26.5/gm. Washington recorded 2 sacks, one pick, and a defensive TD against the Chargers last week.
Arizona must travel east for an early game as road dogs. Washington gets a good home matchup and makes for a reasonable play this week.
Carolina Panthers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. Carolina’s salary ranks them 13th/17th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Packers has the game total at 44.5 points with the Panthers as -6 point home favorites. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 19.25 points and the Saints are currently at 25.25 points. The open line had the Panthers as -1 point favorites, which then quickly moved up. This would indicate that Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) is not expected to play, although no official word has yet been announced.
The Packers rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and 14th in overall offense DVOA. Green Bay ranks 25th in yards with 308.6/gm. and 17th (tied) in points scored with 21.9/gm. Green Bay also gives up the 3rd most sacks allowed with 43, and gives up the 11th (tied) most total turnovers with 19.
The Panthers rank 3rd (tied) in sacks with 40, 25th (tied) in takeaways with 15, and rank 8th in overall defense DVOA. Carolina also ranks 5th in yards allowed with 302.1/gm and 10th (tied) in points allowed with 20.2/gm. The Panthers recorded 6 sacks, 2 picks, and a fumble recovery against Minnesota last week.
Assuming Rodgers is held out, the Panthers have a good shot at outperforming their salary rank this week.
UPDATE: As of Tuesday night, Rodgers has been medically cleared to return this week. From Hundley to Rodgers certainly does change things.