NFL Week 15: December 15th – 19th, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 15.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Baltimore Ravens – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. Baltimore’s salary ranks them 11th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Eagles at 41 points with the Ravens as -6 point home favorites.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 1st in rushing yards allowed (75.5), 11th in passing yards allowed (236.0), and 4th in points scored (18.2). Baltimore ranks 1st (tied) in takeaways with 25 and 14th in sacks with 29. Baltimore also ranks 10th against QBs (15.66), 1st against RBs (13.41), 29th against WRs (25.85), and 4th against TEs (5.09) in fantasy points allowed. Baltimore ranks in at least the top seven against all positions in fantasy points allowed at home. Baltimore recorded one sack and three turnovers in New England last week.
Philadelphia’s offense ranks 15th in rush yards gained (108.6), 21st (tied with Jacksonville) in pass yards gained (232.8), and 19th in points scored (22.3). Philadelphia also ranks 17th (tied) in giveaways with 18 and gives up the 15th most sacks (tied) with 28. Washington logged four sacks, two turnovers, and held the Eagles to 16 points in Philadelphia last week.
With the Eagles’ RBs Wendell Smallwood (MCL sprain) out and Darren Sproles (concussion) in the protocol, an injury-prone Ryan Mathews and Kenjon Barner are left which should not be an issue for Baltimore’s run-stuffing defense. The Ravens’ defense should get a pass-funnel scenario against Carson Wentz, who ranks 8th in most interceptions thrown (tied) with 13 and sacks given up (tied) with 30. Baltimore is still in the hunt with Philadelphia one game away from a losing season, so this unit’s motivation will not be in doubt.
Green Bay Packers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Green Bay’s salary ranks them 9th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Bears at 40.5 points with the Packers as -6.5 point road favorites.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 19th in passing yards allowed (251.5), 9th in rushing yards allowed (96.2), and 21st in points allowed (24.0). Green Bay ranks tied for 13th in takeaways (18) and tied for 5th in sacks (33). Green Bay also ranks 1st against QBs (10.63), 5th against RBs (11.83), 15th against WRs (21.13), and 6th against TEs (4.83) in fantasy points allowed. Green Bay impressively had three sacks, five picks, one fumble recovery, and held Seattle to 10 points last week.
Chicago’s offense ranks 20th in rush yards gained (101.3), 17th in pass yards gained (242.8), and 30th in points scored (17.0). Chicago also ranks 14th (tied) in giveaways with 17.
Alshon Jeffery will make his return from his PED suspension this week. Aaron Rodgers has typically owned Chicago and it appears the Packers are playing with a “must win out” attitude on both sides of the ball. A pass-funnel scenario should be in store for Matt Barkley and co., which should give Green Bay opportunities in what is currently predicted to be a low single-digit temperature game.
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Kansas City’s salary ranks them 7th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Titans at 42.5 points with the Chiefs as -5.5 point home favorites.
Kansas City’s defense ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed (122.9), 18th in passing yards allowed (251.2), and 8th in points allowed (19.6). Kansas City ranks 1st (tied) in takeaways with 13 and 19th in sacks with 27. Kansas City also ranks 10th against QBs (13.49), 25th against RBs (20.65), 13th against WRs (21.03), and 2nd against TEs (3.32) in fantasy points allowed. Kansas City leads the league in DST TDs with seven and in fantasy points per game (10.62). Kansas City has scored double-digit fantasy points in seven of their last eight games.
The Titans’ offense ranks 3rd in rush yards gained (144.5), 25th in pass yards gained (227.8), and 11th in points scored (24.7). Tennessee also ranks 8th best in giveaways with 13, gives up the 5th least sacks with 20, and also gives up the 15th most fantasy points to defenses.
Kansas City will need to contain DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry but matchup well against this offense otherwise. The loss of ILB Derrick Johnson (Achilles) for the year is going to hurt the run defense however. Tyreek Hill may also be a nice potential stack play with this unit.
Miami Dolphins – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Miami’s salary ranks them 9th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Jets at 38 points (lowest on the board) with the Dolphins as -2.5 point road favorites on Saturday night.
Miami’s defense ranks 10th in passing yards allowed (233.7), 30th in rushing yards allowed (133.8), and 17th (tied) in points allowed (23.2). Miami ranks 10th in takeaways with 21 and tied for 15th in sacks with 28. Miami also ranks 27th against QBs (17.99), 14th against RBs (16.95), 22nd against WRs (24.6), and 25th against TEs (8.6) in fantasy points allowed. Miami impressively had three sacks, two picks, two fumble recoveries, and added a blocked kick against Arizona last week.
The Jets’ offense ranks 10th in rush yards gained (111.4), 26th in pass yards gained (222.5), and 28th (tied) in points scored (17.6). The Jets also rank 2nd in most giveaways with 26 and 15th (tied) in sacks allowed with 29. San Francisco logged six sacks and a pick against the Jets last week.
In his past three games since taking over for the Jets, QB Bryce Petty has a 2:4 TD:INT ratio and has been sacked eight times. The playing status of Matt Forte (knee) is currently unknown and is facing a short week so he is looking iffy at best. HC Bowles seemingly has lost the team as they have checked out weeks ago. Miami is still very much alive as they contend for a Wild Card spot, so they should bring it in a must-win game against a team that needed overtime to squeak past San Francisco last week.