NFL Week 15 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 15 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 15: December 12 – 16, 2019

We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team (DST) value plays for week 15.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made as new info comes to light.

Defense

Washington Redskins – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600 (5.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3500 (5.83% of cap). Washington’s salary ranks them 16th/21st on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.

The betting line with the Eagles (6-7) has the game total at 40 points (2nd lowest on the board) with Washington (3-10) as +4.5 point home dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 17.75 points and the Eagles are currently at 22.25 points.

At Green Bay last week, Washington’s defense logged 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and allowed 20 points, good for a DST12 finish. At Philadelphia last week, the Giants’ defense recorded 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and allowed 23 points, good for a DST19 finish.

The Eagles give up the 16th most fantasy points to opposing defenses while Washington’s defense is the 16th highest scoring DST. Washington has averaged 13 FP/game over their last three. Philly’s O-line ranks 17th in adjusted sack rate vs. Washington’s D-Line which ranks 4th.

The Eagles’ offense will now be without starters RT Lane Johnson (ankle), WR1 Alshon Jeffery (foot), and possibly WR2 Nelson Agholor (knee) who missed last week. The Eagles barely won at home in OT vs. a 2-11 team, with a division foe up next on a short week.

New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3900 (6.5% of cap). The Giants’ salary ranks them 14th/11th on DK/FD.

The betting line with the Dolphins (3-10) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Giants (2-11) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Dolphins are currently at 21.5 points.

Against the Dolphins last week, the Jets recorded 2 sacks, 1 pick, and gave up 22 points.

The Dolphins take the most sacks (51), toss up the 2nd most interceptions (17), and allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Especially as home favorites, the Giants’ defense should have some play-making opportunities with a great matchup against a Dolphins team with the 7th most pass attempts over the past three games.
UPDATE:
CB1 Janoris Jenkins has been released, making a bad Giants’ secondary slightly worse. Miami WRs DeVante Parker (concussion) and Albert Wilson (concussion) were full participants in Friday’s practice and listed as questionable. They could both play. Cheaper, but chalky options like the Detroit Lions or Arizona Cardinals, could make for other options.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3800 (6.33% of cap). The Bucs’ salary ranks them 4th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD (Yo FD, what is you doin’ baby).

The betting line with the Lions (3-9-1) has the game total at 47.5 points with the Bucs (6-7) as -3.5 point road favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25.5 points and the Lions are currently at 22 points.

The Lions have given up an average of 13 fantasy points/gm. to opposing defenses over their past three games while the Bucs’ defense has averaged 13.67 fantasy points/gm. over their past three. The Bucs’ defense ranks 13th in fantasy points scored while the Lions rank 20th vs defenses in fantasy points allowed.

The Lions lost WR2 Marvin Jones (ankle) to IR. As long as the Bucs can just keep WR Kenny Golladay somewhat contained, David Blough and company shouldn’t be a big problem for the Bucs’ DST this week.

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